KARBALA CANDIDATES MANEUVER FOR ADVANTAGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000137

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI KDEM PHUM IZ
SUBJECT: KARBALA CANDIDATES MANEUVER FOR ADVANTAGE

REF: BAGHDAD 130

Classified By: PRT Team Leader Don Cooke for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

This is a PRT Karbala reporting cable.


1. (C) Summary: Few incumbent Provincial Council (PC)
candidates are popular, but we expect a number to retain
their seats because they are buying votes. The campaign of
Governor Aqeel Mahmoud al-Khazali, a member of the Da'wa
party, was caught by television reporters in the act of
purchasing support. Da'wa is expected to do well in the
elections, in part because the local head of the Independent
High Electoral Commission (IHEC) is a member. Nevertheless,
ISCI is fighting vote-buying fire with fire, and we expect
several new names to come to the fore as potential provincial
leaders. Unlike in 2005, there is no feeling among Karbalans
that the balloting is being stage-managed by the United
States. End Summary.

Soccer, Anyone?
--------------


2. (C) Sponsorship of sporting events, particularly soccer
matches, is a means used by Karbala's politicians to curry
favor with constituents. Acting PC Chairman Abd al-Al
al-Yasiri, for example, is notorious for arranging soccer
matches and distributing free tickets in order to create the
impression that the public supports his pro-Iran stance on
most issues (reftel). Yasiri is not the only prominent --
and widely disliked -- incumbent buying votes to ensure his
reelection. Governor Aqeel, who many contacts tell us is
blamed for the provincial government's failure to meet the
citizens' expectations for improved public services, also has
used the soccer-match mechanism for purchasing support.
Unfortunately, Aqeel neglected one of the cardinal rules in
exchanging money for support: Buy off the media first.

Candid Camera
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3. (C) Last week, the Da'wa-affiliated Governor, whose
campaign posters feature Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's
likeness as well as his own, announced that he would sponsor
a soccer match on January 17. Thousands of tickets were
given away in poor neighborhoods in south Karbala; women in
particular were targeted and told they would receive 50,000
Iraqi dinars (about $42.50) for attending. Campaign staffers
implied that, along with Aqeel, Maliki also would appear.


4. (C) On the day of the match, the small stadium, normally
the haunt of under- and unemployed men and idle (male)
youths, was filled by a crowd estimated at 2,000.
Approximately 700 black-clad women attended the match,
looking for money and Maliki. Informed the Prime Minister in
fact was not coming, the women were instructed to wait until
after the match -- and the Governor's halftime speech -- to
line up in front of a female staffer to turn in their
jinsiyahs (identification cards). These, they were told,
would be returned in a day or two along with the promised
cash. At the match's conclusion and before joining the
queue, several women were stopped and interviewed on-camera
by two local female television reporters. (Note: One of
these reporters later visited with the PRT and shared video
clips of the proceedings. End note.) The women expressed
their disappointment at Maliki's failure to appear and
candidly explained that the main reason they had come was to
receive money. Asked if being paid by Aqeel's campaign would
make them vote for the Governor, most of the women replied,
yes, why not? No other candidates were giving them money.
All but one of the women expressed indifference when queried
about Aqeel's qualifications for office, the sole exception
being a woman who -- the reporters later established -- was a
Da'wa functionary. She raved that, thanks to the Governor,
QDa'wa functionary. She raved that, thanks to the Governor,
Karbalans enjoy "uninterrupted electricity, good roads, and
clean water" -- all demonstrably false assertions.


5. (C) Seeing the women talking to the reporters, members of
Aqeel's campaign panicked. A man subsequently identified as
the Governor's brother, Abu Fatima, stormed over and said the
women were lying. No money was promised, he insisted, and
the women were acting at Iran's behest in trying to smear
Aqeel's good name. The women reacted with fury, telling the
reporters they could prove they were getting paid for their
votes. With that, one of the reporters left with Abu Fatima
to try to question the Governor while the other -- along with
the camera crew -- proceeded toward an agitated mob, in the
center of which a female Aqeel-campaign staffer sat
collecting jinsiyahs and contact information from pushing,
shouting and gesticulating women. Abu Fatima reoportedly
rushed back and directed the female staffer to return the
stack of jinsiyahs already in her possession. As they
reclaimed their identity cards, some of the women were heard

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carping that they had wasted a day coming and listening to
the Governor speak -- not to mention suffering through a
desultory soccer match -- all for naught. The reporters hope
a news segment featuring footage of this untoward episode
will air soon nationally on al-Sumeriyah channel. The Aqeel
campaign is mulling their offer to interview the Governor so
that he may give his side of the story.

Da'wa Domination?
--------------


6. (C) The conventional wisdom in Karbala is that, despite
the widespread unpopularity of incumbents and religious
parties, current PC candidates affiliated with Da'wa -- which
dominates the political scene here -- will do well. In part,
this reasoning reflects the generally high regard in which
people hold Maliki, who hails from the al-Hindiyah (eastern)
region of the province. However, according to media,
government and commercial contacts, there are other reasons
for the party's expected success. Some point to the fact
that the head of the local IHEC office, Safaa al-Musawi, is a
Da'wa activist. (Note: Two of his cousins, Abbas Hamid and
Mohammad Hamid al-Musawi, are Da'wa party members seeking
election on the "Hope of the Two Rivers" list. Their
brother, BG Ali Hamid al-Musawi, until recently was Karbala's
police commander. End Note.) Top security officials such as
MG Othman al-Ghanimi are known to favor Da'wa, leading to
speculation they could use their powers to facilitate voting
by party supporters -- and stymie opponents -- on
election-day.


7. (C) According to local UN Assistance Mission for Iraq
(UNAMI) representative and former governor Ali Kamonah
(strictly protect) on January 18, Da'wa candidates, in
addition to doling out dinars (50,000 being the standard
sum),are distributing gas cylinders and blankets in exchange
for support. He accused the Prime Minister of duplicity on
the vote-buying issue, stating that Maliki condemned the
practice in a meeting with UNAMI on January 16 but was
witnessed earlier in the month in the al-Hindiyah town of
Tuwayrij exchanging cash for votes with Anayza tribesmen.
Kamonah added that Saeed Abbas Jawdat al-Hasnawi, brother of
former Karbala ISF commander MG Ra'ad Shaker Jawdat
al-Hasnawi, also is involved in distributing money on behalf
of Da'wa candidates. He noted that although Da'wa is not
alone in purchasing support -- ISCI is sending backers on
free trips to Iran as well as giving them cash -- Da'wa is
the subject of the majority of complaints UNAMI has received
concerning the practice.


8. (C) (Note: According to other knowledgeable contacts,
Amar al-Hakim, son of ISCI leader Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, has
been received "like a rock star" at rallies here, likely
because he has been buying votes for 500,000 Iraqi dinars
(about $425) each, with vote-sellers also receiving a copy of
the Qur'an. The contacts point to Da'wa and ISCI vote-buying
as evidence of a political "war" between the two religious
parties, with the prize being control of Karbala. End Note.)

The Early Forecast
--------------


9. (C) Of the 1,279 candidates seeking election to the PC
here, knowledgeable contacts in and out of government assess
that only a small number, perhaps 79, are "serious"
candidates who stand a reasonable change of capturing one of
the 27 seats. Interestingly, despite his electoral
disadvantage from running on a one-candidate list,
independent Yusif Majeed al-Haboubi -- who survived an attack
on January 16 that his backers say was an assassination
attempt and remains hospitalized -- is seen by many as a
front-runner. A former (2003) mayor of Karbala qadah and
Qfront-runner. A former (2003) mayor of Karbala qadah and
current provincial government consultant, he is widely
respected.


10. (C) Other candidates expected to do well include: Aqeel;
Yasiri; the al-Musawi brothers; Abd al-Hamid al-Faraj (the
only Communist Party member in the current PC, he has won
praise as head of the Health Committee); Muhsen al-Kenani (a
pro-business independent known for his staunch nationalism);
Mohammad Sadiq al-Hir (a tribal independent and president of
the provincial hotel and restaurant association); Falah
Husayn Atiyah (the leading Fadhilah party member of the
current PC and head of the Reconstruction Committee); Bushra
Hassan Ashour (a Fadhilah member and -- as second deputy
chairman -- the most powerful female in the current PC); and
Jassim Wahhab Mohammad (head of the Education Committee, he
is the PC's top Sadrist and is running on the "Independent
Free People's Trend" list).

Comment
--------------


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11. (C) Our contacts are unanimous in stating that this
election -- unlike that in 2005 -- is regarded as a purely
Iraqi affair. There is no sense that the United States is
stage-managing or otherwise interfering, although many are
relieved to hear we will be among those observing the process
and that we are working with IHEC and UNAMI to maintain
ballot security. The ownership taken by Iraqis is
heartening, but -- if significant irregularities or
corruption are revealed -- could prove a two-edged sword,
undermining nascent democratic convictions that have yet to
establish firm roots here. End Comment.
CROCKER