Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ATHENS519
2009-04-07 13:39:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Athens
Cable title:
PAVILIDIS AFFAIR PAINFUL, BUT NOT FATAL, TO RULING ND
how-toVZCZCXRO1589 OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG DE RUEHTH #0519 0971339 ZNR UUUUU ZZH O R 071339Z APR 09 FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0043 INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0010 RUEHTH/AMEMBASSY ATHENS RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHINGTON DC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
UNCLAS ATHENS 000519
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL GR
SUBJECT: PAVILIDIS AFFAIR PAINFUL, BUT NOT FATAL, TO RULING ND
GOVERMENT
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED PROTECT ACCORDINGLY
UNCLAS ATHENS 000519
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL GR
SUBJECT: PAVILIDIS AFFAIR PAINFUL, BUT NOT FATAL, TO RULING ND
GOVERMENT
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED PROTECT ACCORDINGLY
1.(SBU) In the early hours of April 7, the Greek
parliament took steps to deal with the latest scandal
plaguing the ruling New Democracy government of PM Costas
Karamanlis. The Parliament voted 215 to 67 in favor of
opening a special inquiry into whether ND former Minister
for the Aegean Aristotle Pavlides had been involved as
the "moral instigator" of alleged bribery attempts by an
associate. (The associate allegedly sought kickbacks
from a shipowner seeking rights to state-subsidized ferry
routes.) According to Greek law, incumbent or former
ministers may not be subject to criminal charges unless a
special parliamentary committee of inquiry lifts their
parliamentary immunity, allowing those accused to face
trial before a special tribunal. The investigating
magistrate, who completed the criminal inquiry into
Pavlides' associate, has submitted the case file to the
president of parliament with the recommendation that
Pavlides be investigated. Pavlides has repeatedly
insisted he had nothing to do with his associate's
actions and that it was he who first took the case to
prosecutors in order to ward off the shipowner's
allegations.
2. (SBU) The Pavlides case has unsettled ruling ND --
already tense due to the economic crisis and earlier
scandals that have damaged the government's image. PM
Karamanlis announced the government would not block the
opposition's motion for a special inquiry, thus allowing
ND lawmakers to cast their votes "according to
conscience." The special committee has until April 27 to
produce its findings.
WILL THE PAVLIDIS AFFAIR TRIGGER NEW ELECTIONS?
-------------- --
3. (SBU) The Greek press has been abuzz with speculation
over whether the Pavlides affair could trigger the
downfall of the government and bring new elections.
While theoretically possible, this scenario appears
unlikely. If Pavlides decided to resign at any point
during or after the process, his seat would be filled
with the first ND runner-up from his electoral district
of the Dodecanese islands, thus preserving the
government's fragile one-seat majority. If, however,
Pavlides was eventually ejected from the ND parliamentary
caucus, PM Karamanlis would be left with just 150 votes,
which would raise the possibility of an opposition
censure motion followed by "snap" elections, ND having
lost the "declared" confidence of parliament. A
government may continue, however, with less than 150
seats in parliament. The only constitutional way of
actually forcing a government to resign is to muster 151
votes "against" following a no-confidence motion (Article
84). Thus, even if the entire opposition agreed to vote
against the government, it could not muster the required
151 votes (as long as ND maintained strict party
discipline.)
4. (SBU) COMMENT: With opposition PASOK leading in the
polls by 3-4 percentage points, Karamanlis has little
reason to seek elections now. Despite press focus on
June (when European Parliament elections are already
scheduled),Karamanlis has every reason to tough it out
and try to put this scandal, too, behind him before
asking voters for another term. END COMMENT.
SPECKHARD
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL GR
SUBJECT: PAVILIDIS AFFAIR PAINFUL, BUT NOT FATAL, TO RULING ND
GOVERMENT
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED PROTECT ACCORDINGLY
1.(SBU) In the early hours of April 7, the Greek
parliament took steps to deal with the latest scandal
plaguing the ruling New Democracy government of PM Costas
Karamanlis. The Parliament voted 215 to 67 in favor of
opening a special inquiry into whether ND former Minister
for the Aegean Aristotle Pavlides had been involved as
the "moral instigator" of alleged bribery attempts by an
associate. (The associate allegedly sought kickbacks
from a shipowner seeking rights to state-subsidized ferry
routes.) According to Greek law, incumbent or former
ministers may not be subject to criminal charges unless a
special parliamentary committee of inquiry lifts their
parliamentary immunity, allowing those accused to face
trial before a special tribunal. The investigating
magistrate, who completed the criminal inquiry into
Pavlides' associate, has submitted the case file to the
president of parliament with the recommendation that
Pavlides be investigated. Pavlides has repeatedly
insisted he had nothing to do with his associate's
actions and that it was he who first took the case to
prosecutors in order to ward off the shipowner's
allegations.
2. (SBU) The Pavlides case has unsettled ruling ND --
already tense due to the economic crisis and earlier
scandals that have damaged the government's image. PM
Karamanlis announced the government would not block the
opposition's motion for a special inquiry, thus allowing
ND lawmakers to cast their votes "according to
conscience." The special committee has until April 27 to
produce its findings.
WILL THE PAVLIDIS AFFAIR TRIGGER NEW ELECTIONS?
-------------- --
3. (SBU) The Greek press has been abuzz with speculation
over whether the Pavlides affair could trigger the
downfall of the government and bring new elections.
While theoretically possible, this scenario appears
unlikely. If Pavlides decided to resign at any point
during or after the process, his seat would be filled
with the first ND runner-up from his electoral district
of the Dodecanese islands, thus preserving the
government's fragile one-seat majority. If, however,
Pavlides was eventually ejected from the ND parliamentary
caucus, PM Karamanlis would be left with just 150 votes,
which would raise the possibility of an opposition
censure motion followed by "snap" elections, ND having
lost the "declared" confidence of parliament. A
government may continue, however, with less than 150
seats in parliament. The only constitutional way of
actually forcing a government to resign is to muster 151
votes "against" following a no-confidence motion (Article
84). Thus, even if the entire opposition agreed to vote
against the government, it could not muster the required
151 votes (as long as ND maintained strict party
discipline.)
4. (SBU) COMMENT: With opposition PASOK leading in the
polls by 3-4 percentage points, Karamanlis has little
reason to seek elections now. Despite press focus on
June (when European Parliament elections are already
scheduled),Karamanlis has every reason to tough it out
and try to put this scandal, too, behind him before
asking voters for another term. END COMMENT.
SPECKHARD