CODEL DURBIN FOCUSES ON CYPRUS IN MEETING WITH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ATHENS 000252

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OVIP CVIS PHUM NATO UNFCYP GR TU MK CY
SUBJECT: CODEL DURBIN FOCUSES ON CYPRUS IN MEETING WITH
GREEK PM KARAMANLIS


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In their February 18 meeting with PM
Karmamanlis, Senator Durbin and Illinois state treasurer
Giannoulias focused primarily on how to achieve progress on
Cyprus this year. PM Karamanlis noted improvement in
Greek-Turkish relations in many areas, but not on "heavy
political issues" like Cyprus. Senator Durbin and PM
Karamanlis agreed that this was a year of opportunity on
Cyprus, with leaders of both communities committed to finding
a solution. Karamanlis questioned whether some EU countries
might "hide behind Cyprus" in opposing further enlargement if
the issue remained unresolved. Asked about his domestic
priorities, Karamanlis focused on response to the global
economic crisis. He asked the delegation to support
extension of the Visa Waiver Program to Greece, and detailed
efforts to resolve the name issue with Skopje, given Greece's
support for NATO enlargement. Senator Durbin noted that,
should Chicago win its bid to host the 2016 Olympics, it
would turn to Greece for advice from its successful
experience in 2004. END SUMMARY.

GREEK-TURKISH RELATIONS . . .


2. (SBU) PM Karamanlis welcomed the CODEL as the "first
delegation to Greece during the Obama administration."
Senator Durbin stressed that the U.S. relationship with
Greece was strong -- and would become even stronger as we
worked together on issues of concern (including a Cyprus
solution). PM Karamanlis noted that Greece's relationship
with Turkey was complex, but Cyprus overshadowed it all.
Karamanlis had been trying to find a breakthrough in
relations with Turkey, establishing good relations with PM
Erdogan (including through a visit to Ankara, the first for a
Greek PM in fifty years). However, while he and Erdogan had
made progress in some areas (gas pipeline, business
investment, banking),the "heavy political issues" remained.


3. (SBU) Karamanlis believed that the Turkish military,
which saw itself as the guarantor of a secular state, also
thwarted Turkey's democratic development and ability to
maneuver in foreign affairs. Cyprus was an example: while
he and PM Erdogan had discussed how to help the two
communities, Karamanlis belived that the "deep state" was
reluctant to change the status quo. He questioned whether
Turkey's civilian government had the ability to form its own
agenda and policy.


4. (SBU) Senator Durbin asked Karamanlis whether Turkey
still wanted to enter the EU. Karamanlis replied that
"nominally, they do" -- but if Turkey fully applied EU
standards, the military would lose much of its weight and
economic influence. So he questioned the Turkish military's
commitment to EU entry. Karamanlis speculated whether
Erdogan had struck a secret compromise with the military to
allow AKP to govern.

. . . AND THEIR IMPACT ON A CYPRUS SETTLEMENT


5. (SBU) Senator Durbin noted the importance of EU
accession for a Cyprus solution. This was a year of
opportunity: the leaders of both communities wanted to find
a solution, and the EU's consideration of Turkish accession
at the end of the year would be simplified if Cyprus was
resolved. In addition, Turkish-Cypriot leader Talat would
face elections in 2010. PM Karamanlis expressed the strong
belief that, if the Cypriots were left alone, they would find
a solution. Both communities knew that a unified island
would benefit everyone, and that the division was artificial
-- though it would be tricky to find the checks and balances
needed to construct a federal state. The biggest question
was whether Turkish-Cypriot leader Talat would be "left
alone" or whether his room to maneuver would be limited by
Ankara. Senator Durbin noted that Talat had told the
delegation Turkey had the power to stop the negotiations --
but had let them continue, with no restrictions.


6. (SBU) Karamanlis emphasized that his administration
supports Turkey's EU accession. But some other EU countries,
faced with economic crisis and believing the EU was
"overextended," were more skeptical. They may "hide behind
Cyprus" when the EU faces key decisions. Senator Durbin
asked Karamanlis what the U.S. could do to help, though a
solution was an issue for the people of Cyprus, not external
forces. Karamanlis suggested that the U.S. send the "right
message" to Turkey, but "not necessarily formally." Public
statements sometimes left political leaders with less room
for maneuver. But it was important that Turkey be reminded
frequently that a Cyprus solution was in their own interest.

GREEK DOMESTIC PRIORITIES: FINANCIAL CRISIS, VWP, FYROM

ATHENS 00000252 002 OF 002




7. (SBU) Illinois State Treasurer Giannoulias asked
Karamanlis about his domestic priorities, and how the U.S.
could help. Karamanlis expressed concern over the impact of
the global financial crisis, particularly given Greece's
"traditionally high" level of public debt. It was essential
to convince people that the government was on top of the
issue and would find a way out. Fortunately, Greece's growth
rate over the past five years had been good. But no country
could go it alone; global cooperation was key.


8. (SBU) Karamanlis pressed for extension of the Visa
Waiver Program to Greece. Ambassador Speckhard noted that
while two of the three agreements needed to move forward were
nearly complete, we were still awaiting a reponse from Greece
on data sharing (the PCSC). Karamanlis also explained Greek
concerns regarding its dealings with Skopje over the name
issue (including reference to Skopje's recent decision to
name a portion of "Corridor X" the "Alexander the Great
Highway"). Karamanlis stressed that it was essential to find
a compromise on a composite name, so that the issue would not
be an obstacle in the future. Senator Durbin agreed,
expressing his support for a resolution. Finally, Senator
Durbin pointed out that Chicago was among the candidates to
host the 2016 Olympics; Mayor Daley had already visited
Athens to learn from their experience. Should Chicago be
chosen, Senator Durbin noted that we would look to Athens for
additional advice.


9. (U) CODEL Durbin cleared this cable.


SPECKHARD