Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ATHENS1459
2009-09-03 14:39:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Athens
Cable title:  

GREEK PRIME MINISTER PROCLAIMS NEW ELECTIONS

Tags:  PGOV GR 
pdf how-to read a cable
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INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ATHENS 001459 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/09/03
TAGS: PGOV GR
SUBJECT: GREEK PRIME MINISTER PROCLAIMS NEW ELECTIONS

CLASSIFIED BY: Daniel V. Speckhard, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

Summary

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ATHENS 001459

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AMEMBASSY BERLIN PASS TO AMCONSUL LEIPZIG
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PASS TO AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
AMEMBASSY HELSINKI PASS TO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG
AMEMBASSY ATHENS PASS TO AMCONSUL THESSALONIKI
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/09/03
TAGS: PGOV GR
SUBJECT: GREEK PRIME MINISTER PROCLAIMS NEW ELECTIONS

CLASSIFIED BY: Daniel V. Speckhard, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

Summary

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1. (SBU) Following Greek Prime Minister Karamanlis's September 2
call for new parliamentary elections, it was announced September 3
that Greek President Papoulias would dissolve Parliament on
September 7 and schedule new elections for October 4. As the
campaign begins, Karamanlis's center-right New Democracy party
faces long odds and internal dissension over the decision to go to
new elections. At the same time the main opposition PASOK, which
has a six point lead in the polls, has no guarantee of an outright
majority, fueling speculation about a possible coalition government
and/or another round of elections soon after these. End Summary.



Karamanlis Makes the Call

--------------


2. (U) In a televised message to the nation, designed to coincide
with the beginning of evening news yesterday, September 2, PM
Constantinos Karamanlis proclaimed early elections. He announced
he would visit President Karolos Papoulias today, September 3, to
inform him of his intention to dissolve parliament and take Greece
to the polls. Constitutionally, elections must be held within 30
days of such motion. Following the meeting with Papoulias
September 3, Karamanlis publicly confirmed that elections would
take place on October 4.




3. (U) In his September 2 announcement, Karamanlis appeared somber
in calling for a "fresh popular mandate" in order to steer the
country through the world economic crisis. The PM claimed his
government had, so far, provided the necessary measures to lessen
the impact of the global downturn and had succeeded in doing so.
Karamanlis said the crisis was far from over, and a "strong
government" was needed to push through with the necessary reforms
and intensify the battle against tax evasion. Karamanlis directed
blame at main opposition PASOK for "manipulating" the

constitutional process and announcing, months ahead of time, that
it would not agree to the re-election of President Papoulias in
March 2010, so that the country would be required to have early
elections in the spring. This "protracted electioneering" was
certain to hurt the country, Karamanlis said, and the government
was determined not to allow this PASOK tactic to succeed.



Papandreou: "We Are Ready"

--------------


4. (U) Minutes after the Karamanlis message, PASOK leader George
Papandreou was at the PASOK HQ press room to announce that the
Karamanlis government had "collapsed under the burden of the
impasse it, itself, has created." Papandreou strove to highlight
the ideological divide between PASOK and ND ('Today, there is a
contest between two radically different policies, attitudes, and
choices'); issued words of a "confident" political force ('We have
the knowledge, we have the political will, we know the problems, we
have proposed solutions'); and addressed the traditional call to
all Greeks to join PASOK ranks ('We address all Greeks, men and
women, the great, creative majority of our society...') to conclude
with a rallying cry borrowed from the Obama election campaign:
"Together We Can."



ND Parliamentarians Weary

--------------


5. (U) Upon hearing that Karamanlis was preparing for a message to
the nation, many ND parliamentarians and party organizers descended
upon ND HQ to express their opposition to an early poll with the
party "greatly weakened" by the recent forest fires and the

ATHENS 00001459 002 OF 003


incessant media "scandal mongering" over the past several months.
All reports stressed the "deep anxiety" and disappointment in ND
ranks over going to an early poll. Early elections, many ND cadres
and MPs continued to insist, were an admission of "failure" and a
self-inflicted wound with undetermined repercussions for the future
of the party.




6. (U) Originally, sources claimed, Karamanlis's message was
scheduled for August 26, but the outbreak of the fires near Athens
led to a postponement. Far from being a "snap" decision on the
part of the Prime Minister, the same sources and media reports
claimed, the resort to an early poll was first considered right
after the Euro-elections of June 2009 and became a "firm" option in
early July.



Election Dynamics

--------------


7. (SBU) PASOK, pro-opposition columnists and commentators
triumphantly announced, is "confident" that it is on its way to
forming a single-party government. A similar message was being
bandied around by PASOK parliamentarians during live TV commentary
after the Karamanlis announcement. PASOK, they declared, will
"never" consider a coalition "with anyone," let alone the
"disgraced" ND incumbent. The mathematical reality under Greece's
complex electoral law may not support such confidence, however,
according to a number of commentators. The current electoral law
"has many traps," pundits underlined, despite offering a seeming
advantage to the party that captures the largest number of votes --
which, right off the bat, is "subsidized" with 40 out of the 300
seats in parliament. The exact percentage of the vote a party
would need to form a government on its own depends on the total
percentage of the vote captured by the parties that fail to cross
the 3 percent threshold required to enter parliament. A commonly
heard prediction is that the leading party would need 41.5% of the
vote. This is significantly higher than the 36.6% PASOK won in its
first-place victory in the June European Parliament elections.




8. (SBU) If no party achieves the minimum number of seats for
forming a government, the president will summon the leaders of the
three top parties in succession to instruct them to form a
government. If these efforts fail, the president, according to the
constitution, convenes a "political leaders' council" to explore
the possibility of a coalition administration. If this fails as
well, the president can appoint a caretaker administration to
repeat the general election "within a reasonable time," usually
right away. This repeat election would be the first conducted
under a new electoral law passed by ND in 2008, which appreciably
lowers the bar for forming a single-party government, expanding the
first-place subsidy to 50 seats and requiring the
first-past-the-post party to get anywhere between 37.5 and 39.5% to
govern alone. Recent polling shows that PASOK may be able to
achieve these percentages with relative ease; presently, the spread
between PASOK and ND is estimated at six percentage points, 33 to
27%, with roughly 20% of the electorate declaring itself
"undecided."



Comment

--------------


9. (C) As the campaign begins the likely order of finish is PASOK
first, ND second, the far-right LAOS and the Communists
significantly behind but easily making it into Parliament, and the
far-left SYRIZA probably losing its presence in Parliament. But
the exact numbers are not clear, and that will make all the
difference in determining what kind of government is formed - and
when. A large number of ND voters stayed home in the June
Euro-elections; Karamanlis hopes to get them back in October but
polling shows they are the least motivated voting bloc. However,

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Karamanlis may be counting on his strong campaign skills to
re-energize ND voters and hoping he can pull off a surprise
victory. If no one party is able to form a government alone, there
are a number possible coalition scenarios, including PASOK and the
Communists, ND and LAOS (something LAOS has been positioning itself
for since its strong showing the Euro-elections),or a grand
coalition between PASOK and ND, but any of these combinations would
require overcoming deep personal and political differences and
would likely be unstable and temporary. The possibility of a
repeat election is real, either by necessity if no government can
be formed, by design in a compromise between the parties, or
because the new parliament is unable to agree with a two-thirds
majority on the president when Papoulias's term ends in March.
SPECKHARD