KAZAKHSTAN: MFA CALLS APRIL 28 SUMMIT OF CENTRAL ASIAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 000854

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EEB, OES/PCI (PHUDAK, NFITE)
MOSCOW FOR ESTH (DKLEPP)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ENRG ECON SENV ZK KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: MFA CALLS APRIL 28 SUMMIT OF CENTRAL ASIAN
LEADERS A SUCCESS

ASTANA 00000854 001.2 OF 002



1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY. Kazakhstan's MFA regards the April 28 Summit of
the Presidents of the Founding States of the International Fund to
Save the Aral Sea as "successful," despite disagreements over water
management issues. Kazakhstan hopes the summit will become an
annual forum to make progress on regional issues. Kazakhstan sided
with Uzbekistan over the Kambarata project in Kyrgyzstan because it
was "upset" that the recent Kyrgyzstan-Russia agreement on Kambarata
excluded Kazakhstan and was concerned about its own situation. If
Afghanistan and Pakistan buy energy from Central Asia, such a
project must also take into account the interests of all the
involved Central Asian countries, the MFA told us. The formation of
blocks within Central Asia would obstruct the resolution of regional
water and energy problems. END SUMMARY.

APRIL 28 SUMMIT "SUCCESSFUL"


3. (SBU) MFA Central Asia Department head Gulmira Sultanali told the
Regional Environmental Officer (REO) on May 14 that the Summit of
the Presidents of the Founding States of the International Fund to
Save the Aral Sea, which took place April 28 in Almaty, was
"successful" because the presidents of the five Central Asian
countries met, deliberated, and agreed to the idea of annual summits
to continue discussions on regional issues. Sultanali acknowledged
that the Summit strayed from the topic of the Aral Sea, but
maintained that in spite of disagreements, it was successful because
each side had a chance to express its views and air its concerns.


4. (SBU) Sultanali noted that the Interstate Commission for Water
Coordination (ICWC),which was originally set up in 1992 to address
the water management problem in Central Asia, ultimately drafted a
cooperation agreement that all parties signed. However, the
agreement could not be implemented, and now ICWC works mostly at the
technical-level on water flow and water level issues. The ICWC can
no longer resolve the regional water management problem in Central
Asia, Sultanali said, because water is no longer a technical matter;
rather, it has become a serious and complicated political issue that
can be handled only at the highest political levels.


5. (SBU) The dilemma, Sultanali said, is to find a mechanism that is
suitable for all the countries. Each side has both energy and water
concerns, with the upstream countries of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
needing electricity and heat in the winter, and the downstream
countries of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan needing water
for irrigation in the summer. Sultanali said that Kazakhstan is
trying to bring the region together to find a consensus, and
believes an annual summit is an appropriate forum to examine both
water and energy together.

KAZAKHSTAN'S VIEWS ON THE KAMBARATA PROJECT


6. (SBU) Sultanali said that the recent agreement between Kyrgyzstan
and Russia under which Russia would loan $2 billion to Kyrgyzstan
for the Kambarata hydroelectric project "upset" Kazakhstan very
much, because it excluded Kazakhstan entirely. (NOTE: Kazakhstan
was a possible investor in Kambarata and had been in negotiations
with Kyrgyzstan prior to the deal with Russia. Such an investment
would have given Kazakhstan a voice in determining downstream flows
to Kazakhstan as well as giving it influence over Uzbekistan. END
NOTE.)


7. (SBU) Sultanali said Kazakhstan finds itself consistently without
sufficient water. She nevertheless argued that each country has a
sovereign right to use its own resources -- an apparent reference to
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan's insistence that water is a national
resource and not a trans-boundary resource subject to international
conventions -- but at the same time, any decision on hydroelectric
projects or water management must be mutually acceptable to all
parties.


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8. (SBU) Sultanali maintained that each country is hard at work
protecting its own interests regarding water. She explained that on
Kambarata, Kazakhstan had decided to side with Uzbekistan at the
April 28 Summit because Kazakhstan also was concerned about its own
situation. "At the very least," she said, "we need to listen to
Uzbekistan's position." She said the region needs outside experts
to come in and help bring the countries together, and for Kazakhstan
the United Nations is the most suitable organization to do this.


9. (SBU) Sultanali appeared to be pessimistic about finding a
solution to Central Asia's water resource management problem. She
stressed the need for a suitable "mechanism," but she was not clear
what one would look like. She saw annual summits as an appropriate
starting point, and explained they would address a number of other
regional problems in addition to water, such as drug trafficking and
regional security.

ENERGY COOPERATION WITH AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN


10. (SBU) Sultanali was aware that Afghanistan and Pakistan are
interested in buying energy from Central Asia, and noted that
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are looking to develop their energy
production potential because they have the water resources. She
said Kazakhstan's position is that all Central Asian countries using
the region's water resources must take into account the interests of
the other Central Asian countries and must secure their agreement in
advance to use them for energy for Afghanistan and Pakistan.


11. (SBU) Without a doubt, she said, the construction of the
Kambarata project in Kyrgyzstan and the Rogun project in Tajikistan
would affect Kazakhstan's interests. Transmission lines will also
have to be built to send electricity to Afghanistan and Pakistan,
and the Central Asian countries need to study closely the
environmental impact of those lines. She again argued that the
United Nations is the preferred "neutral" outside party to do this.

REGIONAL BLOCKS


12. (SBU) Sultanali briefly touched on the notion that blocks might
be forming within Central Asia after the April 28 Summit, with the
upstream countries of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on one side and the
downstream countries of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan on
the other. She hoped that Central Asia would not divide itself this
way, because this would obstruct resolution of the water and energy
problems.


13. (SBU) COMMENT: According a Central Asia-Caucasus Institute
analyst, "Central Asian leaders seem to be caught in the classic
prisoner's dilemma, when each is better off not cooperating while
potentially rewarding cooperation is stalled because of lack of
trust.... A viable water regime seems impossible with the current
state of affairs...but the Central Asian states have no choice but
to keep trying." Sultanali was expressing the MFA's hope for such
cooperation, seeing an annual summit of the region's five presidents
as an appropriate start in that direction. However, she was not
optimistic about the outcome because it appears the Central Asian
countries remain intent on separately pursuing their own interests.
END COMMENT.

MILAS