KAZAKHSTAN: NAZARBAYEV ON AFGHANISTAN, IRAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ASTANA 000557

SIPDIS

STATE FOR P, S/SRAP, SCA/CEN, SCA/A, EUR/RUS, NEA/IR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2024
TAGS: PGOV PREL PARM START RS IR AF KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: NAZARBAYEV ON AFGHANISTAN, IRAN,
RUSSIA, RELATIONS WITH UNITED STATES

REF: A. SECSTATE 29482

B. SECSTATE 30048

Classified By: Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland: 1.4 (B),(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Nazarbayev said on March 30:

he wants to be a strong, non-ideological partner with the
United States to help on Afghanistan;

he continues to advise Tehran to give up their nuclear
ambitions, and will do so once again on April 6 when
President Ahmadinejad visits Astana;

he has advised Russian President Medvedev to trust President
Obama, and asked that the United States try better to
understand Russia's peculiar psychology;

he welcomes Washington and Moscow's commitment to negotiate a
new START agreement; and

he is eager for a stronger, more visible relationship with
the United States and would welcome in the near-term a visit
by Secretary Clinton and, in the longer term, would be
delighted to host President Obama.

Although Washington has many white-hot irons in the fire, we
judge it would be useful for U.S. national interests to pay
attention to President Nazarbayev's evident and, we believe,
sincere opening to the Obama Administration in its early
days. It might well be possible that we have the opportunity
to build a strong partner on Afghanistan, Iran, and Russia.
END SUMMARY.


2. (C) The Ambassador met with President Nursultan
Nazarbayev for 55 minutes in his private dining room adjacent
to his office on March 30. Presidential Foreign Policy
Adviser Khairat Sarybay took notes for the President.

AFGHANISTAN: "LET US BE YOUR NON-IDEOLOGICAL PARTNER"


3. (C) The Ambassador passed to President Nazarbayev a
summary of U.S. objectives in Afghanistan (reftel A) and said
President Obama and his Administration would welcome
Nazarbayev's advice about how to proceed in Afghanistan. The
President initially responded, "Everyone has given you
advice, but are you listening?" The Ambassador assured him,
"Yes, President Obama and his team are listening closely to
our international partners, and we value your expertise. You
know that is true from your November telephone conversation
with President Obama." Nazarbayev relaxed and said, "Yes,
that was an important moment in U.S.-Kazakhstan relations,"
and he referred to it repeatedly during the rest of the
meeting.


4. (C) About Afghanistan, Nazarbayev said, "The urgent
question is how will the elections go? Who will be the next
president of Afghanistan? The problem is that there is now
no real authority in Afghanistan. We (Kazakhstan) helped
with humanitarian reconstruction assistance, but the schools
we built are already abandoned and windowless. The students
are forbidden to attend. No one now can guarantee the safety
of our aid workers and the facilities they built. Why should
we continue this assistance in the face of such chaos that
negates our best intentions? From the beginning, your
(former Secretary of Defense Donald) Rumsfeld thought that
you could provide minimal military assistance, and
Afghanistan would carry on, would muddle through. But the
history of Afghanistan is a long Asian story. Tamerlaine
tried. The Moghuls tried. The British tried. The Soviets
tried. Every empire has failed in Afghanistan. But the
worst-case scenario now would be for the United States and
NATO to give up and leave, because the Taliban would return
triumphantly to power, civil war would reignite, and

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Afghanistan would become a 'paradise for terrorists.' You
cannot leave! You must win! But you must do it
intelligently."


5. (C) Nazarbayev said, "Afghans themselves must find the
power to unite behind a real and legitimate indigenous
leader. You cannot again impose a 'shopkeeper from Chicago.'
I fully understand that there was a moment for Karzai 'with
your cannons behind him,' and I supported you. But his time
has passed. He has failed to unite his nation. I have no
candidate for president of Afghanistan, but I can tell you
that the next president must be an Afghan from Afghanistan
who has the ability to unite at least 50% of the Afghan
people. If you or Moscow impose another puppet, no matter
how charming he might be to either of you, he will fail. The
next president of Afghanistan absolutely must be the choice
of the Afghan people, without any outside manipulation or
interference. I want the next Afghan elections to be as free
as possible." (NOTE: Nazarbayev said this without any hint
of irony. END NOTE.)


6. (C) "Further," Nazarbayev said, "you must carefully
involve Russia, Pakistan, India, and even Iran. If they are
not on board, the destructive chaos will only continue. You
are 'the concert master.' You must create the symphony. The
future of Afghanistan needs fullest international consensus.
Even better if the United Nations can guarantee it. You
cannot allow the Taliban to gain a foothold in the next
Afghan government. If they get one Talib in, they will take
over again, and we will be pre-2001. The Taliban are
irreconcilable. Do not trust extremists to be reasonable!"


7. (C) Nazarbayev said, "Listen to me closely. We can play
a most helpful role for you and for the interests of regional
security and stability. We can be a base for logistical
support for Afghanistan (NFI). We can be the base for the
broadest training of Afghans, both military and civilian. We
are ready to do this and will do so to the maximum. This
will save you a lot of money. We can be the honest broker
without any ideological agenda. We have repeatedly said we
are willing to do this, but it seems to me no one is
listening to us. Please tell your President that we are
willing to play the fullest and most responsible role. I
personally will guarantee that we are non-ideological in the
greater interests of regional stability."

IRAN: "I AM WILLING TO HELP"


8. (C) Nazarbayev said that Iranian President Ahmadinejad
will be in Astana on April 6 and added, "I am most willing to
be helpful to you. I will remind Ahmadinejad that I am
willing to play the role of statesman. Listen to me: Iran
is dangerous! We all know this. No one can sleep safely
with Iran's desire for missiles and nuclear weapons. I
always tell Russia that Iran is 'threat number-one.' Early
in 2008, I spent three hours with Ahmadinejad in Tehran, and
then I went to meet with the 'Supreme Mullah.' I explained
to them Kazakhstan's non-proliferation history. I told them,
'Give up your nuclear ambitions and you will gain
international respect, as we did.' I told them this would
greatly benefit their economy. I told them to tell their
people that they had succeeded internationally and gained
fullest international respect, and then all doors would be
open to them. But they responded that no matter what they
might do, the United States would always find a reason to
demonize them as part of the 'Axis of Evil' and would try to
destroy them. You must understand you have made them
paranoid. And paranoid states are extremely dangerous
because they are irrational. In 2008, I asked Germany and
France, 'What can I do to help?' But I never got any answer.
They ignored my offer. I am still willing to help, but you
need to make me a partner."

RUSSIA: "HELP THEM BY EMBRACING THEM"

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9. (C) The Ambassador passed to Nazarbayev the reftel B
statement on the U.S.-Russia START negotiations. Nazarbayev
took time to read it and commented, "This is excellent. We
fully support it. Please continue to keep us informed. If
we can be helpful in any way, we will do so."


10. (C) Nazarbayev said, "I very, very much hope that your
new Administration will find ways to bring back good
relations with Russia. Just a few days ago, I reminded
President Medvedev by telephone of my November conversation
with President Obama. I told him to trust the new American
President. I told him I fully believe 'the unpleasant
period' is over. Medvedev responded that he looks forward to
serious talks with Obama in London (during the G-20 Summit)."



11. (C) Nazarbayev added, "Your relations with Russia can
influence the entire world. Look, we all know that Russia is
not as developed as the United States and Europe. We know
Russia has outdated equipment and infrastructure. But you
must understand Russia's psychology. Russia will not
tolerate being pushed aside. Because they are insecure, they
are difficult and can even be dangerous. Russia is brittle
and demanding, but you must look past that. Even in its
weakest moments, Russia has always come back. After the
Soviet Revolution, Russia industrialized. After the Great
Patriotic War (World War II),Russia rebuilt faster than
anyone could have imagined. It is very dangerous to insult
Russia. Please understand this. When they are at their
weakest, they can do the greatest mischief. This is simply
history. As a former member of the Politburo of the Soviet
Union, I ask you to trust my judgment. You can only help
them move to a better future by embracing them. My friend
(former Vice President Richard) Cheney used to pound the
table and tell me forcefully that Russia was finished as a
great power. He never listened to me, but I always asked him
to consider history. He never did."


12. (C) Nazarbayev said, "Based on my excellent November
conversation with your President Obama, I truly believe he
understands what's at stake. Please tell him the U.S.
missile defense plan for Central Europe is a horrible
mistake. If the United States is truly concerned about the
potential threat from Iran, as we all must be, please tell
your President that the best recourse is to find a way to
place missile defenses in Russia, not in Central Europe,
where they appear to be against Russia. I remind you, Russia
is at heart a paranoid nation, and paranoid nations are
dangerous. If necessary, even work with Russia to put joint
missile defenses in Turkey. Please tell President Obama to
listen to his best instincts and give reasonable respect to
Russia, even if it seems irrational to you. If there is any
way I can help, I gladly will do so."


13. (C) Nazarbayed added, "I want to make something very
clear. We do indeed have a special relationship with Russia,
but it is solely, in my view, economic and cultural.
Kazakhstan is totally independent politically. We are your
partner, too, if you allow us to be your partner. But you
need to make more of an effort."

"WAIT, ONE MORE MESSAGE FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA"


14. (C) The meeting then devolved into pleasantries, and the
Ambassador started to stand up as the President pushed back
his chair. Then President Nazarbayev said, "Wait, sit down.
I have one more message for President Obama. We want to have
better, warmer relations with your great country. I believe
we deserve trust in many fields. I want to put on the table
new economic initiatives. I deeply appreciate your historic
investments in our oil and gas sectors, especially at the
beginning when you took enormous risks when we were weak. I
would like to ask that you consider a new partnership not

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just for oil and gas, but also for industrial innovation and
technological training. Further, I would ask from my
respected interlocutor President Obama fullest political
support by regular high-level visits, including Congressional
delegations. I very much need this on a regular basis
because Moscow is always breathing down my neck. I will
always be fully respectful to Moscow, but I very much want
you to be a bigger and more equal player, too. I would be
delighted to host President Obama in Astana, but I fully
understand he has other priorities. However, if Secretary of
State Clinton could visit relatively soon, that would make a
most powerful regional statement that would not, I assure
you, be ignored in other capitals -- I mean Moscow and
Beijing. I want you to understand that I consider the United
States a trustworthy partner."

THE REST OF CENTRAL ASIA - PROBLEMATIC


15. (C) Nazarbayev then trailed off into thumbnail sketches
of the other Central Asian states. He said that Kyrgyzstan
and Tajikistan are desperately poor, weak, and extremely
unstable, and worry him greatly, but he does not know what he
can do. He said he worries about their potential to
destabilize the region, especially when the "great powers"
seem predisposed to find new stability for the region,
including in Afghanistan, but seem to ignore the "weak
brothers of lower Central Asia." Nazarbayev judged that
Uzbekistan is "not doing well" because President Karimov is
"odd" and overly susceptible to Russian influence. About
Turkmenistan, he simply said two words, "permanent
neutrality," and rolled his eyes.

"I HAVE LEARNED TO BE CALM"


16. (C) In concluding, President Nazarbayev said, "I have
been around for a long time, and I know that some say it has
been much too long. But in my long experience through many
difficult times, I have learned, after all these years, to be
calm. I really do want stronger, more visible relations with
the United States. My door is fully open to you -- please
tell President Obama. But if you judge you are not ready, I
can wait. I will not ever harm you. I sincerely want to
help you. Anything I do will be in Kazakhstan's best
interests, but I want to help you, if you will let me."


17. (C) The Ambassador thanked President Nazarbayev for his
candor and trust. He told the President that he would pass
in detail his views to President Obama and his
Administration. Nazarbayev gently chided the Ambassador, "It
took you a long time to have a first private meeting with
me." When the Ambassador replied he is always ready, day or
night, the President joked, "Don't you have anything better
to do at night?"


18. (C) COMMENT: What was scheduled to have been a
perfunctory meeting on a difficult bilateral issue (septel,
NOTAL) became a fascinating tour d'horizon of the region and
the potential for U.S.-Kazakhstan relations. Although
Washington has many white-hot irons in the fire, we judge it
would be useful for U.S. national interests to pay attention
to President Nazarbayev's evident and, we believe, sincere
opening to the Obama Administration in its early days. It
might well be possible that we have the opportunity to build
a strong partner on Afghanistan, Iran, and Russia. END
COMMENT.
HOAGLAND