KAZAKHSTAN: UN PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY CENTER HEAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 000421

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, SCA/RA, AND EUR/RUS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID ENRG SENV UN ZK
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: UN PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY CENTER HEAD
DISCUSSES REGIONAL WATER AND ENERGY COOPERATION

Classified By: Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland, 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Miroslav Jenca, Director of the UN Regional
Center for Preventive Diplomacy in Central Asia (UNRCCA),met
with the Ambassador on March 2 to discuss regional water and
energy cooperation and a conference on those issues that will
be held in Almaty April 19-21. Jenca said that Kazakhstan
played a leadership role on water and energy cooperation in
2008 and has been supportive of UN efforts. Jenca raised
concerns about Russia,s manipulation of water issues as a
lever of political control. He noted that downstream and
upstream countries have divergent and very entrenched
positions, particularly downstream Uzbekistan and upstream
Tajikistan. Tajikistan is determined to build the Rogun dam
and may seek Iranian involvement. END SUMMARY.

APRIL WATER AND ENEGY CONFERENCE IN ALMATY


2. (SBU) Miroslav Jenca, UNSYG Special Representative and
Director of the Ashgabad-based UN Regional Center for
Preventive Diplomacy in Central Asia (UNRCCA),told the
Ambassador on March 2 that the Center plans to hold a
conference in Almaty on April 19-21 to discuss regional
approaches to resolving water and energy disputes. Jenca,s
office chose Almaty as the venue because of support from
Kazakhstani Foreign Minister Marat Tazhin, Kazakhstan,s
moderate position as a &peace-maker8 on these issues, and
its convenient location. Jenca,s goal is to build a
&spirit of cooperation,8 to be followed by concrete steps,
including commissioning World Bank feasibility studies on
large cooperative projects, such as a
Kyrgyzstan-to-Afghanistan electricity line, Tajikistan,s
Rogun dam, and electrical links between Uzbekistan and
Turkmenistan. The center is inviting to the conference
officials from the ministries of foreign affairs,
agriculture, water, and the environment, as well as the
presidential administrations, of each of the five Central
Asian states.

NAZARBAYEV HAS PLAYED AN IMPORTANT ROLE


3. (C) Jenca told the Ambassador that he hoped Kazakhstan
could play a leadership role at the upcoming conference. He
noted that President Nazarbayev has played a key role in
pressing for water and energy cooperation in 2008 and
bringing the Central Asian leaders together at an October
summit in Almaty to discuss these issues. According to
Jenca, although the European Union,s recent Strategy Report
for Central Asia deliberately avoided naming a lead country
in Central Asia, the understanding is that Kazakhstan is
central to this effort. He argued that downstream
Kazakhstan,s position on water issues is very &moderate8
in comparison to that of downstream Uzbekistan.

RUSSIAN USING PROBLEMS AS A POLITICAL LEVER


4. (C) Jenca maintained that Russia is trying to use
regional water and energy issues as a lever to exert
political control over the Central Asian states, instead of
using its technology and resources to genuinely try to
resolve these problems. He said that Tajik President Rahmon
resisted Russian demands for 70% Russian ownership of
Tajikistan,s Rogun hydroelectric dam and told the Russians
to &get out.8 This is why the Russians turned against the
project after Russian President Medvedev had earlier
announced Russia,s intent to play a lead role in it during a
2008 visit to Dushanbe.


5. (C) Jenca also told the Ambassador that the fundamental
issue for downstream water users is whether or not they can
trust upstream users. Turkmenistan,s President
Berdimukhamedov, who Jenca said is &in (Uzbek President)
Karimov,s shadow on this issue, has stressed that

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maintaining his country,s access to water is a top
priority.8 Jenca maintained that Tajikistan is determined
to continue with the Rogun project, and has expressed a
willingness to use its own resources to complete it, if
necessary. Jenca does not believe that Tajikistan has
sufficient resources to do the job -- which raises the
question of possible Iranian involvement.

UN AND WORLD BANK HAVE IMPORTANT ROLES TO PLAY


6. (SBU) According to Jenca, the United Nations, World Bank
and other multilateral organizations can and should also play
an important role in dealing with these issues. He noted
that when the UN invites all five Central Asian countries to
forums to discuss these problems, they are likely to come,
even if they are not ready to move forward. He said that
while it remains unclear to what degree Uzbekistan will
accept the outcome of World Bank feasibility studies on water
and energy cooperation, Uzbekistan would like to have the UN
and World Bank involved in the issues.

FURTHER POSTPONEMENT NOT AN OPTION


7. (SBU) Jenca told the Ambassador that he is well aware of
the challenges his Center faces in trying to resolve these
issues. He acknowledged that Uzbekistan sees itself as a
leader in the region, and is unlikely to accept any solution
that does not affirm this position. Jenca also said that he
was aware that various donors had already invested large sums
of money in trying to resolve water issues &without any
results.8 However, further postponement of trying to deal
with the problems is not an option either.

IMPRESSED WITH KAZAKHSTAN


8. (SBU) Jenca told the Ambassador that Kazakhstan,s
openness to foreign investment and its investments in human
capital have given the country a deservedly positive
reputation. Jenca, who is a former Slovak diplomat, said
that after President Nazabayev visited Slovakia, the Slovaks
implemented a program modeled on Kazakhstan,s Bolashak
scholarship program, which sends students abroad to study at
government expense.


9. (C) COMMENT: UNRCCA was established in Ashgabat because
of Turkmenistan,s strong desire to host a regional UN body.
When Ambassador Jenca first arrived and opened the center,
which had no clear mandate, he considered a number of the
region,s problems as too hard to solve. Given the difficult
personalities and intractable positions on the water issue,
he will likely need more than several UN-hosted conferences.
END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND