Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ASTANA372
2009-03-02 06:57:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Astana
Cable title:  

KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENT ADVISOR YERTYSBAYEV

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM PINR SOCI KDEM RS KZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6369
OO RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLH RUEHNP RUEHPW
RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHTA #0372/01 0610657
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 020657Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY ASTANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4777
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE 1279
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0662
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 0357
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 1365
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFAAA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 0840
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC 0756
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 2509
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2181
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ASTANA 000372 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2033
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR SOCI KDEM RS KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENT ADVISOR YERTYSBAYEV
SUPPORTS EARLY ELECTIONS, DIALOGUE WITH OPPOSITION

Classified By: Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland, 1.4 (b),(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ASTANA 000372

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2033
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR SOCI KDEM RS KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENT ADVISOR YERTYSBAYEV
SUPPORTS EARLY ELECTIONS, DIALOGUE WITH OPPOSITION

Classified By: Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland, 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In the course of a very frank conversation
on February 26, Presidential Advisor Yermukhamet Yertysbayev
told the Ambassador that he supports early parliamentary
elections and establishing a dialogue between the government
and opposition. He explained he favors a two-party system
for Kazakhstan, with one pro-Nazarbayev party and a second
opposed to the government. Yertysbayev described ousted BTA
bank chairman Mukhtar Ablyazov as a "threat to the system"
because of his vast financial resources and willingness to
use them to fund the opposition. He argued that it is
critical President Nazarbayev serve out his full term,
through the end of 2012, because only Nazarbayev can keep a
lid on the country's problems. Yertysbayev was uncertain
whether Nazarbayev will run again in 2012, but expressed
doubts that two frequently named contenders -- Senate
Chairman Tokayev and Astana Akim (Mayor) Tasmagambetov --
have the leadership qualities necessary to succeed him.
Yertysbayev said he personally favors further political
liberalization, but admitted that the economy is Nazarbayev's
top priority, with political reform in "tenth place." He
acknowledged that international opinion and pressure,
expressed both publicly and in private, has an influence on
the Kazakhstani government. He agreed Kazakhstan might be
able to play a role in improving U.S.-Russian relations.
END SUMMARY.

SUPPORTS EARLY ELECTIONS, DIALOGUE WITH OPPOSITION


2. (C) During a February 26 meeting with the Ambassador,
Presidential Advisor Yermukhamet Yertysbayev said he remains
a supporter of early parliamentary elections. He explained
that he has not only called for early elections in his public
comments to the media, but has also expressed the same
opinion to President Nazarbayev in private. According to
Yertysbayev, it is critical to establish a dialogue between

the government and opposition -- and the dialogue needs to
take place in a multi-party parliament, "not outside on the
public squares." Yertysbayev pointed to Ukraine as a model.
"We can criticize the Ukrainians for many things, but they
have managed to create a dialogue within their parliament
among opposing political forces," he said. "If something
were to happen today to President Nazarbayev such that he
became incapable of running the country -- for example, if he
were to fall seriously ill -- Kazakhstan would face a
complete crisis, because there is no mechanism for opposing
forces to come together and reach comprise," he maintained.


3. (C) In Yertysbayev's opinion, the ideal time for early
elections would be as soon as possible -- in March or April
-- because the opposition is still weak and divided, which
should ensure that the ruling Nur Otan party wins. If
elections were held later in the year, Nur Otan might
actually lose, he claimed. The opposition has united in the
past and could do so again. "The most dangerous situation
for the government would be if they all came together behind
one leader, it doesn't even matter which one," he said.

FAVORS TWO-PARTY SYSTEM


4. (C) The Ambassador asked whether the government would even
permit a strong opposition to emerge. Yertysbayev responded
that the government would, in fact, restrict the opposition's
activities as much as possible, including limiting the
opposition's access to the broadcast media, denying
opposition requests to hold rallies, and bribing opposition
leaders to divide them. He explained, "I don't approve of
this approach. I am for a two-party system -- one party
would be pro-Nazarbayev, and other party would be opposed to
the government. The parties would be something like the
Democrats and Republicans. While this model would be
somewhat artificial in Kazakhstan, it would be beneficial and
allow for effective control to be exerted over the
government." "Unfortunately," he continued, "the government

ASTANA 00000372 002 OF 004


views the opposition as enemies, not as opponents," and does
not want to provide a level playing field for political
competition. "Just imagine if Obama hadn't had access to the
media, only McCain," he added.

DESCRIBES ALGA, ABLYAZOV AS A "THREAT TO THE SYSTEM"


5. (C) The Ambassador asked Yertysbayev which political
parties he considers to be relevant. Yertysbayev responded
that there are only three serious parties -- Nur Otan, Azat,
and the unregistered Alga party, "the others just exist on
paper." (NOTE: With this response, he was essentially
dismissing the relevance of the National Social Democratic
Party of Zharmakhan Tuyakbay -- who was the united opposition
candidate in the 2005 presidential elections -- and
Serikbolsyn Abdildin's Communist Party. END NOTE.) The
Ambassador asked why the government won't register Alga.
Yertysbayev explained that this is because ousted BTA Bank
Chairman Mukhtar Ablyazov is behind the party. According to
Yertysbayev, "Ablyazov promised Nazarbayev to stay out of
politics, but he has been financing Alga and the opposition
newspaper 'Respublika' and will continue to do so, even if he
doesn't return to Kazakhstan. Ablyazov took $9.5 billion
from BTA and represents a danger to the whole system. Alga
has 40,000 to 50,000 members, or maybe even 100,000 members,
and there is a possibility that Ablyazov will run for
office."

SAYS IT'S CRITICAL NAZARBAYEV SERVE OUT HIS TERM


6. (C) Kazakhstan, Yertysbayev continued, has a lot of
problems -- including the potential for separatism in the
heavily ethnic Russian North and oil-rich West, potential
inter-ethnic conflicts, social tensions between rich and
poor, and "territorial claims." Only Nazarbayev can keep a
lid on these problems, which is why it's critical that he
remain in power for his full term, through the end of 2012,
he argued. "If he were to stumble now, no one knows what
would happen in the country," Yertysbayev maintained, "but
we'll see what happens in 2012, whether he'll run again or
anoint a successor." The Ambassador asked which of those two
options Nazarbayev would more likely choose in 2012.
Yertysbayev responded, "If there were a strong personality
from the younger generation, he would step aside, but for
now, there isn't. It's very difficult to make a prognosis
three years out. Look, we're confronting a financial crisis
that no one predicted the year before it began."

EXPRESSES DOUBTS ABOUT TOKAYEV, TASMAGAMBETOV


7. (C) The Ambassador then asked whom Yertysbayev considers
the most likely contenders to succeed Nazarbayev. "I could
mention several names," Yertysbayev responded, "but this
would just be my subjective opinion." He explained that
usually two individuals are named as possibilities -- Senate
Chairman Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev and Astana Akim (Mayor)
Imangali Tasmagambetov. However, according to Yertybayev,
"Tokayev does not have the charisma or character that
Nazarbayev has, which is necessary to lead the country." In
the case of Tasmagambetov, "people view him quite negatively
because of his alleged corruption and the houses (illegally
constructed by poor migrants) that he bulldozed while Almaty
Akim. He also doesn't have the right character for a leader.
We shouldn't forget that a successor is going to have to run
in an election and win against an opposition candidate,"
Yertysbayev argued. The Ambassador asked about the prospects
for Nazarbayev's son-in-law Timur Kulibayev to emerge as the
successor. "Anyone can run, but the question is, can that
person win?," he reiterated, "If there is a fair election
like in the United States, an unexpected person might even
emerge, though if the election is tightly controlled by the
government, the Nur Otan candidate will have a big advantage.
That's what makes the outcome difficult to predict."

TALKS BLUNTLY ABOUT NAZARBAYEV

ASTANA 00000372 003 OF 004




8. (C) Yertysbayev characterized the recent amendments to
Kazakhstan's election, political party, and media legislation
as "insignificant," and said he is a proponent of further
liberalization of these laws. However, he explained, "I
don't make policy. I'm just a humble advisor with a small
office in the Presidential Administration. Sometimes
Presidential Nazarbayev listens to my recommendations, but
political reform is in tenth place on his list of priorities;
the first priority for him is the economy -- the financial
crisis, unemployment, the banking sector's problems, etc."


9. (C) Yerysbayev said bluntly about Nazarbayev, "He was 13
years old when Stalin died, and he cried when it happened.
He was already 51 years old when the Soviet Union collapsed.
So he's a product of the Soviet system. That's why he's
likes to maintain such tight control." However, Yertysbayev
was quick to add, "But the political culture of the country
is very low, and the tight control has been justified.
There's been no ethnic conflict, we've had strong economic
growth, and we have good relations with the United States,
Russia, and China. The plusses (of Nazarbayev) far outweigh
the minuses." He also said Nazarbayev had recently told him
that despite the financial crisis, the United States will
remain the world's strongest power for the next 50 years, and
thus it is important for all the Central Asian countries to
continue developing close relations with the United States.

ACKNOWLEDGES INTERNATIONAL OPINION MAKES A DIFFERENCE


10. (C) The Ambassador asked whether international opinion
really does have an influence on the Kazakhstani government,
and if so, what is more effective, private criticism or
public criticism. Yertysbayev responded that international
opinion is, in fact, taken into account by the government --
and played a role in the recent Constitutional Council ruling
that declared the proposed religion law to be
unconstitutional. He explained that both private and public
pressure works, and the most effective appeals are those made
directly to Nazarbayev because he's in charge of both
domestic and foreign policy. After Nazarbayev, the place to
direct pressure is toward the Parliament and Cabinet. "The
West has influenced us in a good way on a number of
occasions. We're a young country and sometimes we don't
understand our international commitments, and how to behave
in international organizations like the United Nations and
OSCE. We have to be told where we fall short." Yertysbayev
praised USAID, the National Democratic Institute (NDI),and
other U.S. organizations for their roles in promoting
democracy and human rights in Kazakhstan.

EXPRESSES DOUBTS ABOUT RUSSIAN INTENTIONS


11. (C) The Ambassador asked whether Kazakhstan might be able
to play a role in fostering better relations between the
United States and Russia. Yertysbayev agreed that Kazakhstan
should be able to assist, since it has good relations with
both countries. If Kazakhstan undertook such an initiative,
Russia would appreciate it and respond positively, he
contended. Yertysbayev nevertheless cautioned, "I believe
that President Obama and Secretary Clinton want better
relations with Russia, but I don't know what the Russians
want. As (Russian opposition leader Gary) Kasparov has said,
'Putin wants to rule like Stalin, but live like (Russian
billionaire Roman) Abramovich' -- which is a bad for
democracy and human rights in Russia."


12. (C) COMMENT: Yertysbayev certainly lived up to his
reputation. The Ambassador has had a number of frank
conversations with other senior government officials, but
none as free-wheeling as this one with Yertysbayev. It
impresses us that President Nazarbayev has such a
liberal-thinking iconoclast as a top advisor, and indicates
that Nazarbayev does not want to live in an echo chamber
surrounded solely by sycophants, but instead remains open to

ASTANA 00000372 004 OF 004


hearing views that likely diverge from his own. END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND