KAZAKHSTAN: OPPOSITION PROTEST FIZZLES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 000358

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI KDEM KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: OPPOSITION PROTEST FIZZLES


1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY: The opposition Azat party organized an
anti-government protest rally on Saturday, February 21 in Almaty,
but it did not draw a large crowd, despite Azat's active efforts to
publicize the event. The protest's participants called for the
resignation of Prime Minister Karim Masimov and his government for
their "mismanagement of the economic crisis." Azat's plan to hold
similar rallies nation-wide did not materialize because the party
was denied permits for public gatherings in every one of the
capitals of Kazakhstan's twelve oblasts (regions). The party
reapplied to hold the rallies on Saturday, February 28, but 10 of
the new requests have been denied, with two still pending permits.
Azat's leadership plans to appeal the denials in court. END
SUMMARY.

AZAT'S ALMATY RALLY DRAWS FEW PARTICIPANTS


3. (SBU) On February 21, the opposition Azat party held a protest
rally in Almaty to demand the resignation of the government over its
handling of the economic crisis. The turn-out was relatively low --
an estimated 300 to 500 people attended, in a city of perhaps 1.5
million -- despite the fact that Azat publicized the protest widely
in high-circulation opposition newspapers, including "Svoboda Slova"
and "Taszhargan." The attendees were primarily party activists,
pensioners from the "Pokolenie" pensioners' movement, and
"dolshiki," i.e., individuals who paid money upfront for apartments
which have not been completed. There was also a small group of
young people from the Socialist Resistance movement, one of whom was
waiving a Che Guevara flag.


4. (SBU) The speakers at the protest, which included Azat Chairman
Bulat Abilov, Deputy Chairman Peter Svoik, "Pokolenie" leader Irina
Savostina, and "Svoboda Slova" Editor-in-Chief Gulzhan Yergaliyeva,
called for the immediate resignation of Prime Minister Karim Masimov
and his government. They castigated the government for the recent
devaluation of the national currency, the tenge, and for failing to
cope with the global economic crisis. The crisis is the result of
government "incompetence and avarice," railed Abilov in his address.
"The sooner this government leaves, the sooner we will handle the
economic crisis," announced Svoik. The protesters' slogans were
aimed solely at Masimov's government, with no criticisms levied
against President Nazarbayev himself. The rally ended with all the
participants backing Azat's demand to "form a government of people's
trust."

REGIONS DENY PERMISSIONS FOR RALLIES


5. (SBU) Azat's original plan was to host rallies nation-wide at
the same date and time. However, the party's applications to host
public gatherings in the capitals of every one of Kazakhstan's 12
oblasts (regions) were all denied. The reasons for the denials
varied, but all cited previously-planned activities that conflicted
with the rally, including commemorations of the 20th anniversary of
the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, cultural events, and sports
competitions. The Azat leadership expressed some skepticism at what
they called the "feeble reasons" provided and reapplied for rally
permits for February 28. To date, 10 of the 12 new applications
have been denied, with regional administrations (akimats) again
citing conflicting events. On this occasion, the Taldykorgan akimat
claimed that preparations were in full swing for Maslinitsa, the
celebrations before Russian Orthodox lent. The Kyzylorda region
cited anti-flooding exercises, while the Aktobe authorities pointed
to a hockey game. Azat deputy head Marzhan Aspanduyarova told us
that the party intends to appeal these refusals in court, going as
far as the Supreme Court if necessary. She had little doubt that
the remaining two pending applications will also be denied.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: Azat was expecting a much larger turnout in
Almaty, and the authorities were apparently worried the party would
succeed in bringing out a big crowd. Azat actually applied for a
permit for a gathering of 3,000 to 5,000 people. The Procurator
General's Office subsequently sent the party a letter reporting that

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it had taken notice of the extensive advertising for the protest,
and warning that a deliberate attempt to deliver a larger turnout
than requested in the permit constituted misrepresentation to the
authorities and could lead to "safety violations" that Azat's
leadership would be held personally accountable for. With growing
economic problems in Kazakhstan -- including a teetering banking
system, layoffs at some large enterprises, a 20 percent devaluation
of the tenge, and anecdotal reports of consumer price hikes -- the
time should have been ripe for a bigger protest in the one city
where the opposition has a strong base of support. And the protest
was, in fact, widely publicized. An Almaty taxi driver who picked
up PolOff several hours after the protest was well aware of the
event -- he railed against President Nazarbayev and the Kazakhstani
elite for "robbing the country blind" and said that the protest
leaders speak the truth. That the protest fizzled could be the
latest evidence of the weak appeal of the existing opposition
parties and their limitations in mobilizing the public. END
COMMENT.

HOAGLAND