Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ASTANA352
2009-02-27 01:52:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Astana
Cable title:  

KAZAKHSTAN: KMG's IDENOV ENTERTAINS, REVEALS

Tags:  PGOV ECON EPET EINV KZ 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ASTANA 000352 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EUR/CARC, EEB/ESC
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USTDA FOR DAN STEIN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON EPET EINV KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: KMG's IDENOV ENTERTAINS, REVEALS

REF: (A) 08 ASTANA 2465 (B) ASTANA 0317 (C) 08 ASTANA 2276

ASTANA 00000352 001.3 OF 004


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ASTANA 000352

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EUR/CARC, EEB/ESC
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USTDA FOR DAN STEIN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON EPET EINV KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: KMG's IDENOV ENTERTAINS, REVEALS

REF: (A) 08 ASTANA 2465 (B) ASTANA 0317 (C) 08 ASTANA 2276

ASTANA 00000352 001.3 OF 004



1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY: On February 25, the Ambassador met Maksat
Idenov, First Vice President of KazMunaiGas (KMG),and the
government's lead negotiator for all new oil exploration and
production deals. Idenov was candid and animated throughout the
meeting, which was conducted in English and lasted well beyond the
scheduled time. He clearly enjoyed the opportunity to confide in
the Ambassador and shared previously undisclosed details of
negotiations to explore the N Block, an offshore hydrocarbon-rich
reservoir in the North Caspian estimated to contain 2 billion
barrels of recoverable oil. Idenov said negotiations to expand the
capacity of the CPC pipeline were moving "very slowly" and said the
development of KCTS would spur Russia to action and help "jump
start" CPC expansion. Idenov was noncommittal on Nabucco and very
cautious when discussing the possibility of a trans-Caspian
pipeline. Idenov also said the government had "already solved" work
permit issues raised by international oil companies and offered his
opinion that sulfur is not a "waste product" and thus Tengizchevroil
should not be fined for producing and storing it. Idenov was
critical of former Kashagan operator Agip throughout the meeting and
asked for the Ambassador's assistance to spread the message to
companies and government officials alike that "adherence to sound
business principles is essential to the future development of
Kazakhstan as a civilized society." END SUMMARY.

N BLOCK NEGOTIATIONS IN PROGRESS


3. (SBU) Before the meeting began, the Ambassador was escorted to a
private room in the back of Idenov's spacious office suite on the
15th floor overlooking construction of the ambitious, and very
expensive, Khan Shatyr entertainment center. On the way, he passed
a crowded table of senior Western advisors preparing KMG for
negotiations to explore the promising offshore N Block. Idenov left
the negotiating table to meet the Ambassador and immediately briefed

him in candid and colorful terms on the status of the talks.

NATIONAL PRIDE AT STAKE


4. (SBU) Idenov started by saying that ConocoPhillips (Conoco) CEO
Jim Mulva, Mubadala chairman Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed, and
President Nazarbayev agreed on a 40-year tax and royalty contract
through 2057, without a tax stabilization clause. Conoco and
KazMunaiGas (KMG) would be "joint operators" of the project, with
Conoco and Mubadala owning 49 percent of the operating company and
KMG owning a majority stake of 51 percent. Idenov then immediately
confided to the Ambassador, "Of course, when we say we'll be joint
operators, we are only kidding ourselves because we don't have the
capability to carry that out yet. But we must say it for matters of
national pride." Conoco, Idenov said, will be the "main driver" of
the project and will supply the necessary exploration technology,
organizational expertise, business processes, and project
management.

A PRIVATE LOOK INSIDE THE N BLOCK DEAL


5. (SBU) Idenov then abruptly stood up and left the room, returning
in a flourish with his personal laptop, which he opened to show the
Ambassador an internal presentation on the N Block transaction. As
he scrolled through the presentation, Idenov paused to underscore
certain points and answer questions. He sounded somewhat like a
real estate agent as he pointed out the size of the N Block (more
than 8,000 square kilometers, or roughly the size of Japan),and its
convenient location near both the Central Asia Center gas pipeline
and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. He also noted that the
water depth of the Block ranges from 30 to 375 meters and its
distance from shore ranges from 15 to 90 kilometers. Idenov said
KMG has retained an expensive team of world-class business advisors
including accountants Ernst and Young, financial advisors Barclays
Capital, energy consultants Gaffney Cline, and the law firm of

ASTANA 00000352 002.3 OF 004


Curtis, Mallet-Prevost "not to protect me, but to give me an open,
sustainable, honest deal."

PREVIOUSLY UNDISCLOSED DETAILS


6. (SBU) As Idenov walked the Ambassador through the presentation,
he disclosed several details of the N Block deal that were not
previously known (reftel A). For example, he said that Conoco will
pay 50 percent of the $100 million signing bonus when the contract
is signed and 50 percent in 2010. He also disclosed that the N
Block consortium will pay the government a commercial discovery
bonus based on the quantity of N Block's proven reserves. If the
consortium discovers less than 1 billion barrels of oil, the bonus
will be $1.50 per barrel; if they discover greater than 1 billion
barrels, the bonus will be $2.50 per barrel. Idenov showed a bar
chart showing expected cash flow for the project indicating that
Conoco and KMG will incur net losses for the first 10 years of the
project. The company is not expected to be in the black until 2017
and will not reach full cost recovery until 2023. Idenov told the
Ambassador that the project assumes a price of oil of $70 per
barrel, with $60 as a break-even point. "At $40 per barrel," he
said, "we're not surviving."

REMAINING ISSUES TO RESOLVE


7. (SBU) Idenov was optimistic that the parties would come to
agreement on the N Block, but he said they are still working to
resolve three remaining issues:

-- Internal rate of return. According to the heads of agreement
signed in Astana by KMG, Conoco, and Mubadala on December 5 (reftel
A),the project will deliver an internal rate of return (IRR) of
11.75 percent. Since that time, however, the government suspended
its crude export duty, which Conoco calculated would raise the IRR
to 13 percent. When Conoco CEO Mulva asked the government to raise
the IRR for the project to 13 percent, however, Idenov chided Mulva,
saying, "Jim, I know the HOA is not a binding agreement, but come
on! You can't be serious! You need to negotiate in good faith and
honor your previous agreement."

-- Environmental safety. In 1968, according to Idenov, a Soviet
drilling rig exploring the area around the N Block "fell apart and
sank." All agree that the wreck might complicate drilling
operations, but they have not agreed who will be responsible for
removing it and who would be liable for any environmental damage it
may cause. Conoco wants the government to remove the rig (or at
least pay for its removal and indemnify them against any future
liability). Idenov said he offered to carve out the territory on
which the rig rests from the N Block acreage, but Conoco balked at
the suggestion, because, according to Idenov, they "want creamy
butter on their crunchy bread" (i.e., they want to have their cake
and eat it too). Idenov said he offered to compensate Conoco for
the cost of removing the Soviet rig, if the N Block yields no
producing wells.

-- Natural gas sales. Conoco told Idenov that it would like to
negotiate the price for any associated natural gas sales up front.
Idenov said the government has offered to sell the project's natural
gas at the Russia-Kazakhstan border, according to the price
determined by confidential agreement between KMG and Gazprom, which
he did not disclose to the Ambassador or, for that matter, to
ConocoPhillips. Idenov noted in passing that KMG president
Kairgeldy Kabyldin will travel to Moscow on February 27 to meet with
Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller to discuss this, among other issues.

NABUCCO AND THE TRANS-CASPIAN PIPELINE


8. (SBU) When the Ambassador asked about Kazakhstan's interest in
the Nabucco gas pipeline to Europe, Idenov said he is personally
very familiar with the project, having studied the possibility of
exporting Iraqi gas to Europe via Nabucco when he worked as a vice
president for Shell in the Middle East in 2004-06. Without

ASTANA 00000352 003.3 OF 004


commenting specifically on Kazakhstan's interest in participating in
Nabucco, Idenov said Kashagan alone contains 140 trillion cubic feet
of natural gas, implying that Kazakhstan could become a major gas
exporter in the future. When asked about the possibility of a
trans-Caspian gas pipeline, Idenov leaned back in his chair, pointed
at the ceiling, and said, "That is a question for Zero One," meaning
President Nazarbayev. "Only he can answer that question." Idenov
added that no work has been done in Kazakhstan on the proposed
Caspian littoral ("pri-kaspiskii") gas pipeline, saying, "there's no
feasibility study, no funding, no construction."

A DIRECT LINK BETWEEN CPC AND KCTS


9. (SBU) Idenov told the Ambassador that work on the expansion of
the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline is "slowly moving
forward." He said the consortium agreed in December 2008 on the
basic principles of expansion, but "there is still no agreement on
money." (COMMENT: It was not clear if Idenov was referring to
funding for the feasibility study, which we understand has been
approved, or BP's sale of its 6.6 percent stake in the consortium,
which we understand is still under discussion. END COMMENT).
Echoing the comments of Chevron's Jay Johnson (reftel B),Idenov
drew a direct link between CPC and the Kazakhstan Caspian
Transportation System (KCTS): "Until the Russians see a strong move
on KCTS, CPC will struggle." Idenov sounded concerned that KCTS was
"not moving" and said Minister of Energy Sauat Mynbayev had asked
him to "jump into KCTS" to get things going. Idenov said that as
soon as he concludes the N Block negotiations, he will turn his
attention to KCTS. "I will start with ExxonMobil," he said, "and
push them first. But do you know the real problem with KCTS? It is
Chevron, saying, 'We will participate, but if CPC is expanded, we
will ship our oil through CPC first.'" Idenov complained that
Chevron's attitude threatened to jeopardize the entire project,
since no one will begin construction or modernization of pipeline,
port, and shipping infrastructure without a firm commitment of
supply from the major oil producers.

WORK PERMITS "ALREADY SOLVED"


10. (SBU) When asked why Kazakhstan reduced the number of work
permits issued to foreign workers by half in 2009, Idenov told the
Ambassador hastily, "That problem has already been solved." When
asked to elaborate, he said Pierre Offant, who has been seconded
from France's Total to be the new managing director of the Kashagan
consortium, complained that he could not obtain work permits for
Kashagan employees, so he took Offant to see Minister of Labor
Berdybek Saparbayev. According to Idenov, Saparbayev immediately
agreed to grant work permits to Kashagan employees in the first two
(skilled labor) categories, but asked that the company show a
preference for Kazakhstani candidates in the third category, which
Idenov said comprises mainly truck drivers, crane operators, and
laborers. Idenov said other large foreign investors should
similarly have no difficulty obtaining the necessary work permits.
"If Jay Johnson has a problem, tell him to come see me and we'll go
to the Ministry of Labor together and work it out," he said.
(COMMENT: Idenov did not seem to appreciate the costs, delays, and
difficulties associated with resolving work permit issues only on a
case-by-case basis with the direct intervention of himself and the
Minister of Labor. END COMMENT).

SULFUR NOT A WASTE PRODUCT


11. (SBU) Idenov mentioned in passing that in his opinion, sulfur
is not a "waste product," but a legitimate, marketable commodity
associated with processing Tengiz crude. As a result, Idenov said,
Tengizchevroil should not be fined for storing the sulfur produced
from the sour gas associated with Tengiz crude. However, Idenov
said, "I cannot say this publicly. I cannot openly contradict my
government's position. I must be more discreet. But I have made
the point privately in conversations with Energy Minister Mynbayev
and Deputy Prime Minister Shukevich."


ASTANA 00000352 004.3 OF 004


A PASSIONATE PLEA FOR GOOD BUSINESS PRACTICES


12. (SBU) As the meeting came to a close, the conversation turned
to standards of good corporate behavior. This is obviously an issue
of deep personal concern to Idenov, who began to rail against
Western companies operating in Kazakhstan in a way that he said
violates international business practices. In particular, Idenov
singled out Italy's Agip, saying, "I'm very disappointed in them.
Whatever Agip touches either falls apart or violates basic business
principles." At Karachaganak, co-operated by Agip and BG Group,
Idenov said KMG has already sent one formal notice of dispute and
plans to send another soon. In the first case, Idenov said a
KMG-sponsored audit by KPMG called into question the operator's
claim to recover $250 million in costs incurred in 2003-2004. In
the second instance, KMG plans to ask for an objective, third-party
assessment of the operator's decision to spend $350 million to
replace the type of pipelines and metal structures used at the
field. "I must send these letters as a matter of principle," he
said. "Until we restore good business practices in Kazakhstan, we
will not be able to develop as a civilized society." He then added
ominously, "When companies continually violate good business
practices, they issue an open invitation to the Dark Side of the
Force to come in and replace them."


13. (SBU) COMMENT: Meeting with Maksat Idenov is always both
entertaining and informative. During this latest encounter, his
characteristic candor and dramatic flair were on open display, to
our pleasure and benefit. Although he may be a prima donna, Maksat
is also an astute businessman who has the confidence of President
Nazarbayev and the authority to make or break billion-dollar deals
for U.S. companies. He has high demands and high expectations for
foreign investors operating in Kazakhstan's oil and gas industry,
and woe to those who disappoint him. He also has a keen
appreciation of Russia's role in Eurasian energy security and is
willing to poke and prod Russia when it serves Kazakhstan's
interests, for example, on CPC expansion. While we do not agree
with Idenov on everything, we understand and support his insistence
that international investors conduct business with the highest
standards of accountability and integrity and will reinforce this
point in private meetings and public speeches to the diplomatic and
business communities. END COMMENT.

HOAGLAND