KAZAKHSTAN: MEDIA REACTION, FEBRUARY 11-18

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STATE FOR SCA/CEN, SCA/PPD

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TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI KPAO KMDR KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: MEDIA REACTION, FEBRUARY 11-18


1. SUMMARY: A perceived delay in the final decision on closing
Manas airbase triggered speculation on whether the Kyrgyz
Government's announcement on closing the base was simply an attempt
to try to squeeze a few more dollars out of the United States. The
U.S. stimulus-package legislation also drew a wide range of comment,
including negative speculation on the future of the dollar that
seemed to channel anger from the recent tenge devaluation. END
SUMMARY.
WILL WE STAY OR WILL WE GO?

2. Pro-government, Russian-language "Central Asian Monitor"
published an op-ed piece summarizing the recent financial agreements
between Russia and Kyrgyzstan, commenting, "Russia had to pay quite
a high price for Kyrgyzstan's decision to close Manas airbase."
After pointing out that several American officials, including
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and White House Press Secretary
Robert Gibbs have said negotiations are ongoing, the author quotes
the Secretary of the Kyrgyz Security Council, Adakhan Madumarov, as
saying "the fate of the anti-terrorist coalition airbase is
determined." The author continues, "But the main question -- when
will the U.S. airbase be removed from Kyrgyzstan -- is still open.
It looks like Kyrgyzstan is lingering for some reason. What for?
There are two options: Either the negotiations continue between
Kyrgyzstan and the United States, or Kyrgyz authorities are waiting
for the Russian financial aid to arrive in order to be sure that
they do not end up with nothing."

3. "Central Asian Monitor" also interviewed Azhdar Kurtov from the
Russian Institute of Strategic Studies, who doubts that the Manas
airbase will be closed. "We are talking about Kyrgyz President
Bakiyev, who three years ago made a similar promise not just in
front of the President of Russia, but also in front of the heads of
SCO member states," Kurtov said. In his opinion, the technical side
of airbase closure will take months, and "anything can happen during
this time." Kurtov concludes, "NATO is approaching Russia's borders
in Europe, the Northern Caucasus, and Central Asia. That is why
Russian authorities prefer that there be no airbase."

4. Pro-government, Russian-language "Kontinent" noted, "Moscow is
trying to expand and deepen its economic, political, and military
cooperation with the Central Asian states in order to decrease
Western influence there." "Kontinent" sees the base closure as a
victory for Russian policy, opining, "Russia no longer has strong
influence on the military and political situation in Afghanistan.
However, Russia can organize everything in such a way that
Washington must discuss transit options first of all with Moscow."
Pro-government, Russian-language "Novoe Pokolenie" admits, "The
Russians achieved what they wanted; they pushed out their main
geopolitical rival," but goes on to quote Russian political observer
Alexander Sobyanin saying that Kyrgyz President Bakiyev is making
"an effort to push the Americans to pay more money and to bargain
with the Russians one more time." Sobyanin "is sure that the
Americans will manage to persuade the Russians to prolong the rental
of Manas at least until their military strikes on Pakistan and Iran.
But after the military operations in these two countries are over,
the Americans will no longer keep Manas."
DOLLAR ARMAGEDDON

5. Pro-government, Russian-language "Liter" published several
articles on the U.S. response to the global financial crisis. First
it summarized the recent U.S. stimulus package, calling it "a big
puff cake, with a piece for everybody." A second article said that
Treasury Secretary Geithner's bank bailout plan means "the United
States will crank up its money-issuing machine." While "measures
taken by the Obama Administration and its predecessors have been
ineffective, the real threat will come when the U.S. economy begins
to stabilize, and problems of massive currency issuing arise. Then
everyone will start selling dollar assets, and America will be faced
with hyperinflation. The dollar's era is coming to an end." A
related "Liter" article announces that recent transactions between
nations in their local currencies "are a sign of the forthcoming
Armageddon of the American dollar." The author predicts a dollar
collapse "at the end of this year or the beginning of the next" and
criticizes the United States for "issuing unsecured dollars to
increase liquidity in order to escape the crisis at the expense of
others."

WE'RE NOT SO BAD

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6. Perhaps in an attempt at balance, "Liter" also took a shot at
Russian television host Mikhail Leontyev, who "keeps convincing
everyone that America is the enemy." However, "there are many
clear-headed people who are not willing to look at the world through
the sight of a gun. Once you take the gun away and look closely, it
turns out that Americans are pleasant and decent people." The
reason for this epiphany is an experience that "Yegemen Kazakhstan"
reporter Sauatbek Abdrakhmanov had on his recent visit to the United
States with Kazakhstani State Secretary Kanat Saudabayev.
"Billionaire and CNN founder Ted Turner took time during an award
ceremony to introduce himself and shake hands with all of the
Kazakhstani reporters." The author also praises President Obama,
and quotes his inaugural speech, "Earlier generations faced down
fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with
sturdy alliances and enduring convictions," and asks, "What ideology
and convictions do former citizens of the Soviet Union, some of whom
view the United States as the enemy, have? Some Kazakhstanis
believe in the idea of Eurasianism, connecting Russia and
Kazakhstan. However, there are not so many supporters of either
Eurasianism or democracy in Russia." The author concludes, "If
Russia changes its diplomatic tone from an aggressive to a friendly
one, it has a chance to regain its image as a respected and
civilized country. Otherwise, it will have to continue
disseminating Leontyev's views in Kazakhstan."

HOAGLAND