KAZAKHSTAN: MEDIA REACTION, FEBRUARY 7-13

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 000269

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, SCA/PPD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PROP EFIN MARR SOCI KPAO KMDR KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: MEDIA REACTION, FEBRUARY 7-13


1. (U) SUMMARY: The reported closure of Manas Airbase in
neighboring Kyrgyzstan continues to make news in Kazakhstan,
spurring a number of stories about regional politics and the
announcement of a Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)
Rapid Response Force. Both the closure decision and the CSTO Rapid
Reaction Force were presented largely as a victory for Russia over
the United States. Meanwhile, as Kazakhstan instituted a
devaluation of the national currency and a government buyout of two
major private banks, the economic crisis is primarily being covered
from a local perspective, with very little reference to the United
States. END SUMMARY

ADVANTAGE RUSSIA


2. (U) Pro-government, Russian-language "Liter" announced that last
week was very successful for Russia, as "Russian politicians managed
to take Kyrgyzstan away from the Americans." Even though "Russia
tried to make it look like an independent decision by Kyrgyzstan...
politicians in Moscow have started talking about the establishment
of a Russian base in place of the American one." In a recent
article, "Liter" slightly revised its appraisal by stating that the
base closure came "under pressure from Russia and Kazakhstan" and
Russia and Kazakhstan are now taking control over Central Asia,
demonstrating to America who is the master in the region."


3. (U) Pro-government, Kazakh-language "Aikyn" quotes political
scientist Murat Laumulin as saying that due to President Obama's
commitments to Afghanistan, the United States will need more bases,
but that any future bases in the region "will be decided between the
United States and Russia. Russia is fighting to control U.S.
activities in the region." Laumulin thinks that it is "too late"
for a U.S. base in Kazakhstan, due to Kazakhstan's other
commitments.

COUNTERWEIGHT


4. (U) "Liter" sees the establishment of a CSTO Rapid Reaction
Force, "modeled after NATO," as necessary to respond to threats set
in motion by "U.S. plans to intensify its anti-terrorist campaign in
Afghanistan." "The Pentagon... has a sorrowful war experience in
Iraq that caused a huge flow of refugees," and speculated that
similar refugee flows from Afghanistan could destabilize Central
Asia. The force could also fight drug trafficking. "The United
States didn't take decisive measures to decrease the opium crop, but
Moscow is in a hurry to take care of this."


5. (U) Independent Russian-language "Delovaya Nedelya" describes
the Rapid Reaction Force decision as "bringing back the ghost of the
Warsaw Pact to compete with NATO." It quotes unnamed Russian
diplomats as saying that the purpose of the force is to "prevent
post-Soviet republics from deepening relations with NATO," and
wonders why Kazakhstan, with its lauded "multi-vector policy" joined
the force. "Kyrgyzstan, due to its poverty, changes its foreign
policy convictions depending on who gives the most. But why do we
need this?"

ALL POLITICS ARE LOCAL


6. (U) The recent tenge devaluation and the government's entrance
into the private banking sector have been almost completely reported
in Kazakhstani terms, with only passing mentions of the
international situation. The devaluation has been described in one
of two ways. Pro-government, Russian-language "Express K" suggests,
"By devaluating the tenge, the government did what it was supposed
to do, breathing financial oxygen into the export-oriented sectors
of the national economy." However, pro-government, Russian-language
"Central Asia Monitor" complained, "The devaluation is putting the
load of the crisis on the shoulders of ordinary people. It is
pulling money out of the pockets of workers and pensioners. It is
absurd."


7. (U) The government's move to take controlling financial stakes
in two major private banks is seen as a power struggle between the
government and the former chairman of one of the banks in question,
Mukhtar Ablyazov of BTA. "Liter" quotes political observer Dosym
Satpayev as saying that "the conflict between Mukhtar Ablyazov and
the state is an echo of a more global process in which property is
being redistributed to states." Opposition "Respublika" published a

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statement by Ablyazov that the takeover is "the result of constant
and persistent government attempts to take BTA Bank using 'ambiguous
methods.'" Other than Satpayev's comment above, there has been
little attempt to place the government's actions in an international
context.

HOAGLAND