Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ASTANA256
2009-02-12 08:42:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Astana
Cable title:  

KAZAKHSTAN: CIVIL AVIATION COMMITTEE REPORTS THAT AIR

Tags:  PGOV PREL EAIR KZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHTA #0256/01 0430842
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 000256 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EEB
STATE PLEASE PASS USTDA FOR DAN STEIN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAIR KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: CIVIL AVIATION COMMITTEE REPORTS THAT AIR
ASTANA OBJECTS TO OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT

REF: 08 STATE 129946

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 000256

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EEB
STATE PLEASE PASS USTDA FOR DAN STEIN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAIR KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: CIVIL AVIATION COMMITTEE REPORTS THAT AIR
ASTANA OBJECTS TO OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT

REF: 08 STATE 129946


1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY: EconOff met on February 4 with Civil Aviation
Committee Deputy Director Daulet Mamekov to solicit official
feedback on model bilateral and multilateral Open Skies agreements
that we provided the Kazakhstani government per reftel. Mamekov
reported that Air Astana will oppose any agreement that might impact
its market share. He agreed, however, that there may be room for an
agreement which covers only cargo. Mamekov reiterated the
Kazakhstani government's interest in direct passenger flights
between Kazakhstan and the United States. END SUMMARY.

AIR ASTANA OPPOSES OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT


3. (SBU) On February 4, EconOff met with Civil Aviation Committee
(CAC) Deputy Director Daulet Mamekov to solicit official feedback on
model bilateral and multilateral Open Skies agreements which we
provided to the Kazakhstani government on December 22, per reftel.
Mamekov wasted no time in saying while the CAC would be willing to
sign an Open Skies agreement, executives at Air Astana
--Kazakhstan's 51% state-owned flagship carrier -- oppose the idea.
Mamekov explained that neither the CAC nor the Ministry of Transport
and Communications agency is in a position to challenge Air Astana.



4. (SBU) Mamekov quoted directly from a lengthy letter sent to Vice
Minister of Transport and Communication Azat Bekturov by Air
Astana's Director for Commercial Planning, I. Janleil, who wrote,
"If signed, this (Open Skies) agreement would have a significant
negative impact, including the possible closure of the national
airline." (NOTE: Post has obtained a copy of the complete letter,
which has been shared with Washington. END NOTE.) Janleil further
wrote that the Kazakhstani side would "suffer significant losses,"
and that U.S. carriers would "attract passenger traffic which will
use the (same) routes of Kazakhstani carriers." According to
Janleil, "these direct losses could amount to $45 million in the
long run," which "does not include Air Astana's tax payments to the
national budget or job losses." Mamekov added that Air Astana's
specific concerns include the model agreements' absence of limits on

flight frequency and geographic range.


5. (SBU) Mamekov explained that he understood Air Astana's business
concerns about competing with large, established American carriers,
quoting the Russian proverb, "elephants rub, flies die." He
suggested, however, that Air Astana's opposition could perhaps be
trumped if an Open Skies agreement were to be accompanied by pledges
from American carriers to carry out specific, large-scale investment
projects in Kazakhstan, such as the development of a new airport.
He then added somewhat contradictorily that even if American
carriers were amendable to this concept, which would include the
training of a domestic Kazakhstani work force, their access to the
Kazakhstani aviation market would still have to be negotiated by
them on a case-by-case basis.

DOOR MAY BE OPEN FOR CARGO-ONLY AGREEMENT


6. (SBU) Mamekov admitted that there may be room for an Open Skies
agreement that covers only cargo services, or small passenger planes
with seating for less than 20 passengers. (NOTE: U.S. Department of
Transportation representatives raised the possibility of a
cargo-only agreement with the Kazakhstanis during the Athens
aviation conference in October. END NOTE.) At this point, Mamekov
claimed, without further elaboration, that a new Law on Civil
Aviation, which he expected would be enacted within the next several
months, "would eliminate the necessity to sign any agreements with
any countries."

INTEREST IN DIRECT U.S.-KAZAKHSTAN FLIGHTS


7. (SBU) Mamekov repeated the Kazakhstani government's interest,

ASTANA 00000256 002 OF 002


previously expressed by the Kazakhstanis in Athens, in the
possibility of initiating direct passenger flights between
Kazakhstan and the United States, and asked whether any U.S.
carriers had expressed interest in such a proposition. (NOTE: In
Air Astana's letter to Bekturov, the airline partly justified its
rejection of an Open Skies agreement by stating that no Kazakhstani
carrier intended to explore commercial routes directly to the United
States in the near future. END NOTE.) Mamekov explained that if
Prime Minister Masimov directed him to purse direct flights, this
might provide the political weight necessary to override Air
Astana's opposition to an Open Skies agreement.


8. (SBU) Mamekov concluded the meeting by enumerating several areas
of possible bilateral cooperation in Kazakhstan's civil aviation
sector, including upgrading Kazakhstan's civil aviation fleet,
cooperation with Boeing, and the creation of a technical aviation
center. He admitted that Kazakhstan has had some difficulties
working with authorities in the European Community's Safety
Assessment of Foreign Aircraft (SAFA) program. He claimed that
several Kazakhstani companies had been blacklisted for failure to
meet SAFA's standards, adding that he doubts that all U.S. companies
"meet such severe requirements." Mamekov proposed a trip to
Washington in the spring for Kazakhstani officials to discuss civil
aviation issues.


9. (SBU) COMMENT: The Ministry of Transport and Communication, the
Civil Aviation Committee, and Air Astana appear to have conflicting
views on the value of an Open Skies agreement. The CAC claims to
understand the benefit of increased regional integration, but
remains unwilling to directly challenge Air Astana, which
monopolizes key air routes and reportedly has direct influence with
President Nazarbayev. Pursuit of a cargo-only Open Skies agreement
might be our best option for now. END COMMENT.

HOAGLAND