KAZAKHSTAN: NUR OTAN'S LIBERAL DEMOCRAT?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASTANA 002162

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL, INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2009
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR KDEM OEXC SCUL KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: NUR OTAN'S LIBERAL DEMOCRAT?

REF: (A) ASTANA 2148
(B) ASTANA 2141
(C) ASTANA 0431

Classified By: Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland: 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Yerlan Karin, the secretary of the President's
ruling Nur Otan party, is not shy about criticizing the policies of
his party and the government. A former think-tanker who came to the
government because he became tired of "criticizing from the
sidelines," Karin openly assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the
Kazakhstani political system. He also freely verbalizes views far
more liberal than those usually heard from high-level officials.
This cable aims to paint a portrait of one "liberal" in President
Nazarbayev's circle. END SUMMARY.

POLITICAL SCIENTIST FIRST...


2. (C) The 33-year-old Yerlan Karin came to politics from academia.
A graduate of Kazakh State University with a degree in political
science, Karin began his career as a researcher and analyst and ran
his own think tank, the Central Asian Agency for Strategic Research,
from 2000 to 2003. He entered politics in 2003 as the first deputy
chairman of the now-defunct Asar party of President Nazarbayev's
daughter, Dariga. He then began a two-year stint as an advisor of the
Mangistau oblast akim (governor). In 2008, Karin joined the
Presidential Administration as the head of the Internal Policy
Department. In November 2008, he moved to his current position as
one of two party secretaries of the Nur Otan party. Despite his
official responsibilities, Karin continues his analytical pursuits --
he told the CDA on December 5 (ref A) that he is finishing a book on
the role of security forces in policy formation, with publication
expected in January.

... POLITICIAN SECOND


3. (C) Karin explained that he moved from academia to politics,
because he "got tired of criticizing (government policy) from the
side-lines." Karin's think-tanker background easily permeates
conversation, especially in his frank and objective assessment of
Kazakhstan's political reality. He was surprisingly open in his
criticism of both the Nur Otan party -- "It lacks a platform, it
tries to be all things to all people" -- and of the government -- "It
works in isolation, setting priorities without consultation." At the
same time, he sees party politics as the best "school of democracy,"
asserting, "It teaches you to negotiate, consult, face criticism."
He aims to make Nur Otan more responsive to citizens' concerns,
stating, "Policy that does not have public support is useless."
Interestingly, Karin puts little stock in the power of the
parliament, dismissing the parliamentarians as "talking heads."
Although Karin clearly enjoys his work at Nur Otan, he does not plan
to stay in politics permanently. He told the CDA he intends to
return to political studies "in the near future."

LIBERAL ON POLICY


4. (C) In the course of a free-flowing conversation with the CDA,
Karin voiced opinions far more liberal than those usually heard from
high-level Kazakhstani officials. Karin believes that human-rights
defender Yevgeniy Zhovtis was not treated equally under the law when
he was sentenced to four-years of imprisonment for vehicular
manslaughter (ref B),citing an example of a mid-level government
official who received a suspended sentence for a similar crime. He
sharply criticized the trial balloon that was floated several months
ago, supported by his own party, to make President Nazarbayev
President-for-Life. In his view, "the clans [geographic and economic
power groups] will hatch clandestine plots, and the opposition will
plot a revolution" if the option for a peaceful power-transfer is not
available.


5. (C) Karin was equally critical of the disproportionate libel suit
that forced opposition newspaper "Taszhargan" to close (ref C). A
damage award of one tenge (less than 1 USD) "would have proven the
point without making the government look vengeful," he assessed.
Karin's views appear guided by a genuine wish that the government's
actions be perceived as fair, just, and beyond reproach. "These
blunders open us to criticism," he argued. Karin claimed he voices
these opinions privately to his colleagues at the Ak Orda
(Presidential Administration) and sometimes publicly to the media.

ASTANA 00002162 002 OF 002


"Periodically, I get a whack on the head," he joked.

STRONG ON NATIONAL IDENTITY


6. (C) Karin, an ethnic Kazakh, has strong feelings on the issue of
Kazakh identity and culture. "The identity question is coming to the
fore" in Kazakhstan, and Nur Otan is sidestepping this
highly-sensitive, but important, question, criticized Karin. Like
many Kazakhs, Karin is ambivalent about the President's Doctrine of
National Identity, which calls for a development of a "civil" --
rather than ethnic -- Kazakhstani identity. "Kazakhs must feel
themselves the building blocks of this nation, the first among
equals," he pressed. He presented the CDA with a book on the history
of Alash Orda, the autonomous Kazakh government that existed between
the collapse of tsarist Russia and the establishment of Soviet
Kazakhstan. Among the portraits of Alash Orda members that line the
entry way to his office, he readily pointed to the one of Alikhan
Bukaykhanov, the leader who "personally negotiated with Lenin on the
status of Soviet Kazakhstan." (NOTE: By comparison, the only
portrait of President Nazarbayev was a small calendar on Karin's
desk. END NOTE.) For Karin, Alash Orda was Kazakhstan's "first
experience with democracy." He lamented the lack of knowledge and
acknowledgement of this period in Kazakhstan's history.


7. (C) COMMENT: Karin is a true intellectual who exemplifies the
"liberal" wing of Kazakhstani political elite, with whom we are
actively engaging -- Karin will travel on an International Visitor's
program in February. A young, well-educated official, he is honest
about the shortcomings of Kazakhstan's political system but
nevertheless committed to its improvement. Although surprising at
first that someone with such liberal views would be leading the
President's Nur Otan party, it shows President Nazarbayev's pragmatic
approach to power -- it is easier to work with the keenest young
liberal minds than against them. END COMMENT.

HOAGLAND