Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ASTANA1967
2009-11-05 03:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Astana
Cable title:
KAZAHKSTAN: DAS KROL COMPARES NOTES WITH
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 001967
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, S/SRAP, INL
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MARR SNAR CH RS AF ZK
SUBJECT: KAZAHKSTAN: DAS KROL COMPARES NOTES WITH
ASTANA'S SECURITY COUNCIL
Classified By: Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland: 1.4 (B),(D)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 001967
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, S/SRAP, INL
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MARR SNAR CH RS AF ZK
SUBJECT: KAZAHKSTAN: DAS KROL COMPARES NOTES WITH
ASTANA'S SECURITY COUNCIL
Classified By: Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland: 1.4 (B),(D)
1. (C) SUMMARY: SCA DAS George Krol met with Security
Council Deputy Chairman Marat Shaikhutdinov in Astana on
October 29. Their meeting was a refreshingly open "exchange
of views," in which Shaikhutdinov, hand-picked from the
Foreign Ministry by Security Council Chairman Marat Tazhin,
asserted he intends in his new position to be "more than just
a bureaucrat." Shaikhutdinov revealed that Astana seems to
be on the verge of approving the deployment of several staff
officers to ISAF headquarters in Kabul. But we also note his
prediction that the deployment of elements of KazBrig to
Afghanistan will not happen in the mid-term, because
Kazakhstan continues to monitor closely the complicated
situation in Afghanistan, ncluding election-related issues.
END SUMMARY.
STAFF OFFICERS TO ISAF HQ
2. (C) Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and
Central Asian Affairs George Krol and National Security
Council Director for Central Asia Kurt Donnelly met with
Deputy Security Council Chairman Marat Shaikhutdinov in
Astana on October 29. Krol noted that U.S.-Kazakhstan
security cooperation is strong and continues to develop in
both countries' interests in this geopolitically sensitive
region. Afghanistan is a common U.S.-Kazakhstan concern,
which is also true for the other countries of Central Asia,
Krol asserted. The United States appreciates Kazakhstan's
assistance to Afghanistan, including its humanitarian aid and
its proposal to send several staff officers to the
International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) headquarters
in Kabul. Shaikhutdinov noted that he expects these staff
officers to go to Kabul soon -- "The paperwork is being
prepared for signature."
CSTO RAPID REACTION FORCE?
3. (C) Krol inquired about the status of the U.S. assisted
peace-securing Kazakhstan Brigade (Kazbrig). Shaikhutdinov
responded that KazBrig's experience in Iraq (2003-2008) had
been most useful for the brigade and for the army in general.
At the moment, however, Kazakhstan is still assessing the
potential risks of sending elements of KazBrig to
Afghanistan, taking into account the planned November 7
run-off election there, escalation of tensions, and "other
complexities." Shaikhutdinov said that sending elements of
KazBrig to Afghanistan will not be a near-term decision. He
added that the difficult situation in Afghanistan is of
concern to all Central Asian countries. The Taliban
continues to move its units into northern Afghanistan, closer
to Central Asia's borders, which increases security risks for
Central Asia. Krol admitted that the situation in
Afghanistan and Pakistan is serious. He said that the Obama
Administration is committed to working with all parties to
defeat the extremists and terrorists. Krol asked
Shaikhutdinov to assess the security situation in
Kazakhstan's Central Asian neighbors. Krol recalled that the
Commonwealth Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) had decided
to set up a Rapid reaction force and exercises had just been
held in Kazakhstan. There had been talk of basing the force
in Kyrgyzstan, but when he was just days earlier in
Kyrgyzstan, the authorities there had told him that nothing
has been decided and that negotiations on on a Russian base
in the south are in the earliest stages.
4. (C) Shaikhutdinov responded that the global economic
crisis has complicated the already difficult situations in
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Kyrgyzstan has
recently held successful presidential elections. The
Tajikistan authorities rule firmly, even while the social and
economic situations there are difficult. Regional
organizations must constantly reassess their activities,
particularly in relation to the general concept to establish
ASTANA 00001967 002 OF 003
a "security belt around Afghanistan." The proposal for a
CSTO Rapid Response Force (CSTO-RRF) resulted from the fluid
situation in the region. While some see the CSTO-RRF as a
"Russian project," in fact all the countries of the region,
except Uzbekistan but including Kazakhstan, want it as a kind
of insurance policy. Even Belarus is preparing its paperwork
to join.
THE AFGHANISTAN THREAT TO CENTRAL ASIA
5. (C) Shaikhutdinov asked Krol to assess the threat to
Central Asia from northern and western Afghanistan. Krol
admitted the threat in the north appears to be growing,
including on the border with Turkmenistan, because Taliban
influence seems to be expanding among the population. While
much attention is focused on the fighting in the south,
developments in the north bear close watching. Shaikhutdinov
noted that Afghanistan's President Karzai has stated that the
situation is worsening on Afghanistan's borders with
Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Drug trafficking has "soared 10
times in recent years." The transit of narcotics and
precursor chemicals is an increasingly serious problem for
Kazakhstan. Shaikhutdinov suggested that U.S. and
Kazakhstani intelligence agencies need to improve their
cooperation.
CHINA ALSO WATCHING
6. (C) Shaikhutdinov noted that China also wants to
cooperate on Afghnaistan. "Our Chinese colleagues visited us
recently and sought our opinion on potential use of the
territory of China for your Northern Distribution Network of
non-lethal supplies for U.S. troops in Afghanistan. We
suspect they are asking us now in light of President Obama's
visit to China in November." Shaikhutdinov added that China
has sought closer security cooperation with Kazakhstan since
the Uighur ethnic disturbances in Xinjan province earlier
this year.
UZBEKISTAN
7. (C) Krol probed further on CSTO and Uzbekistan,
suggesting that Tashkent sees CSTO as a ploy to expand
Russian influence in Central Asia. Shaikhutdinov replied
that this is nothing new. Even though Uzbekistan's difficult
relations with its immediate neighbors is a "dead end,"
Kazakhstan would like to be helpful in easing tensions
between Uzbekistan and its Central Asia neighbors, although
this is admittedly not easy.
8. (C) Krol noted that the United States is "step by step"
moving forward to improve U.S. relations with Uzbekistan.
Shaikhutdinov admitted that Kazakhstan is watching closely
this "normalization process." He added that Kazakhstan hopes
Uzbekistan, as it comes out of its isolation, will listen
more to the United States and the European Union, especially
now that the EU has lifted some of its sanctions against
Uzbekistan. If Uzbekistan indeed follows this path,
Shaikhutdinov suggested, that will help Astana to
find a "common language" with Tashkent since Astana already
has common language with Washington and Brussels.
NO NEW U.S. MILITARY BASES
9. (C) Krol shot down rumors that Washington intends to
build a military base either in Uzbekistan or Tajikistan.
U.S. Central Command Commander General David Petraeus was
indeed recently in Dushanbe, but primarily to discuss
improving Tajikistan's border security. Krol added that
Turkmenistan remains "a big question mark" because of its
"neutrality" and the quality of its military; nevertheless,
"We are interested in long-term relations with Ashgabat."
Shaikhutdinov mused that Kazakhstan expects Turkmenistan will
continue to move toward more openness, including in solving
ASTANA 00001967 003 OF 003
its Caspian Sea delimitation dispute with Azerbaijan and its
"legal issues" with Iran, both of which create complications
for the other Central Asian countries.
10. (C) COMMENT: This meeting, without an urgent "to do"
agenda, was a valuable opportunity for two relatively attuned
partners to share views and advance trust. We note that
Astana seems on the verge of approving the deployment of
several staff officers to ISAF headquarters in Kabul. We
also note Shaikhutdinov's prediction that the deployment of
elements of KazBrig to Afghanistan will not happen in
the mid-term, because Kazakhstan continues to monitor closely
the complicated situation in Afghanistan, including
election-related issues. On the way out of the meeting, Krol
suggested it would be mutually beneficial to have such frank
discussions with the Security Council on a regular basis.
Shaikhutdinov enthusiastically endorsed the idea. END
COMMENT.
11. (U) DAS Krol cleared this cable.
HOAGLAND
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, S/SRAP, INL
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MARR SNAR CH RS AF ZK
SUBJECT: KAZAHKSTAN: DAS KROL COMPARES NOTES WITH
ASTANA'S SECURITY COUNCIL
Classified By: Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland: 1.4 (B),(D)
1. (C) SUMMARY: SCA DAS George Krol met with Security
Council Deputy Chairman Marat Shaikhutdinov in Astana on
October 29. Their meeting was a refreshingly open "exchange
of views," in which Shaikhutdinov, hand-picked from the
Foreign Ministry by Security Council Chairman Marat Tazhin,
asserted he intends in his new position to be "more than just
a bureaucrat." Shaikhutdinov revealed that Astana seems to
be on the verge of approving the deployment of several staff
officers to ISAF headquarters in Kabul. But we also note his
prediction that the deployment of elements of KazBrig to
Afghanistan will not happen in the mid-term, because
Kazakhstan continues to monitor closely the complicated
situation in Afghanistan, ncluding election-related issues.
END SUMMARY.
STAFF OFFICERS TO ISAF HQ
2. (C) Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and
Central Asian Affairs George Krol and National Security
Council Director for Central Asia Kurt Donnelly met with
Deputy Security Council Chairman Marat Shaikhutdinov in
Astana on October 29. Krol noted that U.S.-Kazakhstan
security cooperation is strong and continues to develop in
both countries' interests in this geopolitically sensitive
region. Afghanistan is a common U.S.-Kazakhstan concern,
which is also true for the other countries of Central Asia,
Krol asserted. The United States appreciates Kazakhstan's
assistance to Afghanistan, including its humanitarian aid and
its proposal to send several staff officers to the
International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) headquarters
in Kabul. Shaikhutdinov noted that he expects these staff
officers to go to Kabul soon -- "The paperwork is being
prepared for signature."
CSTO RAPID REACTION FORCE?
3. (C) Krol inquired about the status of the U.S. assisted
peace-securing Kazakhstan Brigade (Kazbrig). Shaikhutdinov
responded that KazBrig's experience in Iraq (2003-2008) had
been most useful for the brigade and for the army in general.
At the moment, however, Kazakhstan is still assessing the
potential risks of sending elements of KazBrig to
Afghanistan, taking into account the planned November 7
run-off election there, escalation of tensions, and "other
complexities." Shaikhutdinov said that sending elements of
KazBrig to Afghanistan will not be a near-term decision. He
added that the difficult situation in Afghanistan is of
concern to all Central Asian countries. The Taliban
continues to move its units into northern Afghanistan, closer
to Central Asia's borders, which increases security risks for
Central Asia. Krol admitted that the situation in
Afghanistan and Pakistan is serious. He said that the Obama
Administration is committed to working with all parties to
defeat the extremists and terrorists. Krol asked
Shaikhutdinov to assess the security situation in
Kazakhstan's Central Asian neighbors. Krol recalled that the
Commonwealth Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) had decided
to set up a Rapid reaction force and exercises had just been
held in Kazakhstan. There had been talk of basing the force
in Kyrgyzstan, but when he was just days earlier in
Kyrgyzstan, the authorities there had told him that nothing
has been decided and that negotiations on on a Russian base
in the south are in the earliest stages.
4. (C) Shaikhutdinov responded that the global economic
crisis has complicated the already difficult situations in
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Kyrgyzstan has
recently held successful presidential elections. The
Tajikistan authorities rule firmly, even while the social and
economic situations there are difficult. Regional
organizations must constantly reassess their activities,
particularly in relation to the general concept to establish
ASTANA 00001967 002 OF 003
a "security belt around Afghanistan." The proposal for a
CSTO Rapid Response Force (CSTO-RRF) resulted from the fluid
situation in the region. While some see the CSTO-RRF as a
"Russian project," in fact all the countries of the region,
except Uzbekistan but including Kazakhstan, want it as a kind
of insurance policy. Even Belarus is preparing its paperwork
to join.
THE AFGHANISTAN THREAT TO CENTRAL ASIA
5. (C) Shaikhutdinov asked Krol to assess the threat to
Central Asia from northern and western Afghanistan. Krol
admitted the threat in the north appears to be growing,
including on the border with Turkmenistan, because Taliban
influence seems to be expanding among the population. While
much attention is focused on the fighting in the south,
developments in the north bear close watching. Shaikhutdinov
noted that Afghanistan's President Karzai has stated that the
situation is worsening on Afghanistan's borders with
Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Drug trafficking has "soared 10
times in recent years." The transit of narcotics and
precursor chemicals is an increasingly serious problem for
Kazakhstan. Shaikhutdinov suggested that U.S. and
Kazakhstani intelligence agencies need to improve their
cooperation.
CHINA ALSO WATCHING
6. (C) Shaikhutdinov noted that China also wants to
cooperate on Afghnaistan. "Our Chinese colleagues visited us
recently and sought our opinion on potential use of the
territory of China for your Northern Distribution Network of
non-lethal supplies for U.S. troops in Afghanistan. We
suspect they are asking us now in light of President Obama's
visit to China in November." Shaikhutdinov added that China
has sought closer security cooperation with Kazakhstan since
the Uighur ethnic disturbances in Xinjan province earlier
this year.
UZBEKISTAN
7. (C) Krol probed further on CSTO and Uzbekistan,
suggesting that Tashkent sees CSTO as a ploy to expand
Russian influence in Central Asia. Shaikhutdinov replied
that this is nothing new. Even though Uzbekistan's difficult
relations with its immediate neighbors is a "dead end,"
Kazakhstan would like to be helpful in easing tensions
between Uzbekistan and its Central Asia neighbors, although
this is admittedly not easy.
8. (C) Krol noted that the United States is "step by step"
moving forward to improve U.S. relations with Uzbekistan.
Shaikhutdinov admitted that Kazakhstan is watching closely
this "normalization process." He added that Kazakhstan hopes
Uzbekistan, as it comes out of its isolation, will listen
more to the United States and the European Union, especially
now that the EU has lifted some of its sanctions against
Uzbekistan. If Uzbekistan indeed follows this path,
Shaikhutdinov suggested, that will help Astana to
find a "common language" with Tashkent since Astana already
has common language with Washington and Brussels.
NO NEW U.S. MILITARY BASES
9. (C) Krol shot down rumors that Washington intends to
build a military base either in Uzbekistan or Tajikistan.
U.S. Central Command Commander General David Petraeus was
indeed recently in Dushanbe, but primarily to discuss
improving Tajikistan's border security. Krol added that
Turkmenistan remains "a big question mark" because of its
"neutrality" and the quality of its military; nevertheless,
"We are interested in long-term relations with Ashgabat."
Shaikhutdinov mused that Kazakhstan expects Turkmenistan will
continue to move toward more openness, including in solving
ASTANA 00001967 003 OF 003
its Caspian Sea delimitation dispute with Azerbaijan and its
"legal issues" with Iran, both of which create complications
for the other Central Asian countries.
10. (C) COMMENT: This meeting, without an urgent "to do"
agenda, was a valuable opportunity for two relatively attuned
partners to share views and advance trust. We note that
Astana seems on the verge of approving the deployment of
several staff officers to ISAF headquarters in Kabul. We
also note Shaikhutdinov's prediction that the deployment of
elements of KazBrig to Afghanistan will not happen in
the mid-term, because Kazakhstan continues to monitor closely
the complicated situation in Afghanistan, including
election-related issues. On the way out of the meeting, Krol
suggested it would be mutually beneficial to have such frank
discussions with the Security Council on a regular basis.
Shaikhutdinov enthusiastically endorsed the idea. END
COMMENT.
11. (U) DAS Krol cleared this cable.
HOAGLAND