ERITREA'S "INCLUSIVE FRAMEWORK" FOR SOMALIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000374


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2019
TAGS: PREL ER SO
SUBJECT: ERITREA'S "INCLUSIVE FRAMEWORK" FOR SOMALIA

REF: ASMARA 373

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4(d)



1. (C) SUMMARY: Eritrea supposedly seeks a stable and
peaceful Somalia, "even if it were on good terms with
Ethiopia," according to Yemane Ghebreab, Eritrea's point man
on Somalia and the ruling party's Director of Political
Affairs. Eritrea proposes an inclusive framework of Somali
groups leading to the creation of a government of national
unity that excludes al-Shabaab's "radical fringe minority."
Yemane asked to meet with the ambassador on October 26 (the
meeting was delayed, as the ambassador was convoked by
Foreign Minister Osman Saleh, reftel) and alluded to the need
for Eritrea and the United States to work together, as "we
can do some things you can't and vice versa." END SUMMARY.


2. (C) ERITREA'S ALLEGED AIMS AND APPROACH
--------------

Yemane Ghebreab remarked that Eritrea's objective is to
promote a peaceful and stable Somalia, even if the resulting
government were friendly to Ethiopia. Eritrea has no
confidence that the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) is
capable of governing Somalia and worries that ongoing
conflict will strengthen the radicals of al-Shabaab, Yemane
continued. The key, in Eritrea's view, is to bring together
enough groups to create critical ruling mass while
marginalizing the radical al-Shabaab leadership.

-- Even if Hizbul Islam (HI) and the TFG were to merge,
Yemane opined, al-Shabaab would swiftly move to fill the void
created in the Islamist wing of the political spectrum and
paint HI members as apostates. Thus, to protect a TFG/HI
coalition from al-Shabaab, Eritrea proposes an "inclusive
framework" involving Somaliland, Puntland, the TFG, HI, the
ASWJ, and others. He said al-Shabaab needs to be invited to
participate in discussions but would certainly reject the
offer, resulting in the self-isolation of the radical
leadership and the loss of what little appeal the movement
has among normal Somalis.

-- The process, as outlined by Yemane, would begin by a
series of discussions with countries and Somali groups,
perhaps later culminating in a conference or gathering in
Somalia.

-- The ambassador responded with the array of reasons the USG
sees the Djibouti process as the best mechanism for peace in
Somalia.


3. (C) ERITREA AND HIZBUL ISLAM
--------------

"We are in regular contact with Hizbul Islam," Yemane
admitted. "But not me personally," he quickly added. He
said Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt--in that order--have
influence with Hizbul Islam. He commented that the recent
fighting between HI and al-Shabaab over Kismaayo has "left
the situation confused." In Yemane's view, al-Shabaab is on
the verge of unraveling, as its radical leadership is out of
step with Somali Islam and even with its own rank and file.
"We have the knowledge and ability to do some things in
Somalia you can't, while you have resources and capabilities
we lack," Yemane said in what may have been a sidling offer
of cooperation.

-- Yemane launched into an expansive recitation of Eritrea's
Flat Denial. He claimed the "complete lack of any credible
evidence" of Eritrea's support for Somali extremists was
gradually taking root among informed observers. "It is
ironic that there is talk of sanctioning us, for doing
nothing, while nobody talks about sanctioning Ethiopia, which
is still providing lots of weapons to Somali groups." He
said Eritrea alone, despite its relationship with Sheikh
Hassan Dahir Aweys, could and would not move HI into a simple
coalition with the TFG, due to HI's fears that al-Shabaab
would attack politically on its "Islamist flank." Thus the
need for the inclusive framework outlined above, in Eritrea's
view.


4. (C) COMMENT: This is the closest any senior Eritrean
official has come to allowing that Eritrea supports Hizbul
Islam and opposes al-Shabaab, or at least its "radical fringe
minority." (Whether true or not.) Eritrea's pursuit of its
"inclusive framework" seems a complicated and risky approach
aimed ultimately at getting Eritrea's favored group, Hizbul
Islam, securely inside the tent while marginalizing
al-Shabaab's radical leadership. Yemane rarely offers
detailed Eritrean policy views on his own volition, usually
preferring to counter-punch with rhetorical questions and
generalizations. This unusual sharing of unsolicited
Eritrean analysis and policy views, coming on the heals of
the ambassador's meeting in which Foreign Minister Osman
Saleh professed a desire for "continuous engagement" with the
United States (reftel),may represent a coordinated Eritrean
effort to keep the fast-closing bilateral window from
slamming completely shut. END COMMENT.


McMULLEN