ERITREAN MILITARY "DRAINED OF PATIENCE"

S E C R E T ASMARA 000140


NOFORN

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/EX AND AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2019
TAGS: PGOV MOPS ER
SUBJECT: ERITREAN MILITARY "DRAINED OF PATIENCE"

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4(d)


1. (S/NF) VETERANS AND SOLDIERS REPORTEDLY FED UP: Many
former fighters, both civilian and active duty veterans of
Eritrea's 30-year war for independence, believe that Isaias
is "destroying the country," according to a supposed senior
leader of Eritrea's internal opposition (strictly protect).
This individual played a prominent role in the independence
war, broke with Isaias, and is now a businessman and the
estranged husband of a cabinet minister. He met the
ambassador at the apartment of a mutual friend April 27.
These interlocutors claimed that an Eritrean general on April
24 told them the military is "drained of patience" with
Isaias' disastrous governance of the country.


2. (S/NF) RISING ANGER: The opposition leader and his friend
asserted that "things are cooking" and that it is only a
matter of time before some incident causes simmering anger to
boil over into open opposition to Isaias' rule. They contend
that resentment is rising among former fighters who feel
their sacrifices have been in vain; the accelerated
collectivization of agriculture is a particular concern. For
example, many Muslim former fighters were granted long narrow
land concessions abutting the seasonal Gash river (Eritrea
has no perennial rivers). Recently the government announced
it was taking control of 750 yards of land on each side of
the river for collectivized agriculture. This deprives the
former fighters of access to the river for irrigation. The
farmers are apparently up in arms and some local
administrators have refused to carry out the order to evict
them.


3. (S/NF) U.S. SUPPORT SOUGHT: The opposition leader said,
"We need America's support." The ambassador commented that
any impetus for change, to be successful, must come from
within. It is folly for the Eritrean Democratic Alliance to
be based in Addis Ababa, as many Eritreans, even those
unhappy with Isaias, still see Ethiopia as an existential
threat to Eritrea. This enables Isaias to argue that
sedition equals treason. The opposition leaders said Isaias
will increasingly rely on his own radical ideology as things
close in on him. They see Eritrea's unimplemented
constitution as the roadmap for the transition to a
post-Isaias era. They commented that the military was the
only institution able, and increasingly willing, to take on
Isaias. They closed by forecasting, "while you are
ambassador here, you will be confronted by this situation."
COMMENT: Post sees widespread dissatisfaction with the status
quo, but is not privy to the internal dynamics of the
military. Former fighters are esteemed but not well
organized. End Comment.


MCMULLEN