Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ASMARA119
2009-04-13 13:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Asmara
Cable title:  

A SIMMERING CHALLENGE TO ISAIAS

Tags:  PGOV MOPS ER 
pdf how-to read a cable
R 131320Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY ASMARA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0249
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
CJTF-HOA J2X CAMP LEMONIER DJ
SECDEF WASHDC
COMUSNAVCENT
NSC WASHDC
CIA WASHDC
DIA WASHDC
JICCENT MACDILL AFB FL
HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000119 


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2029
TAGS: PGOV MOPS ER
SUBJECT: A SIMMERING CHALLENGE TO ISAIAS

REFS: (A) ASMARA 000105, (B) ASMARA 000095

Classified By: Amb. Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000119


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2029
TAGS: PGOV MOPS ER
SUBJECT: A SIMMERING CHALLENGE TO ISAIAS

REFS: (A) ASMARA 000105, (B) ASMARA 000095

Classified By: Amb. Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4(d)


1. (C) Summary: The Isaias regime is seeking to defuse
opposition posed by mid-level military officers who have set
conditions on their continued support of the status quo,
according to an opposition figure. The deteriorating economy
means that the coming four months are likely to determine
whether this challenge will be snuffed out or grow into a
serious threat to Isaias. The departure of exiled figure
Mesfin Hagos from diaspora politics will not be overly
damaging to the opposition cause; Addis-based former senior
GSE official Adhanom Ghebremariam is likely to play an
increasingly prominent role. End Summary.


2. (C) MID-LEVEL OFFICERS REPORTEDLY SET CONDITIONS
-------------- --------------

A wealthy Eritrean businessman who is an active supporter of
the Eritrean Democratic Alliance (EDA) met with the
ambassador April 10. The EDA member claimed increasingly
assertive mid-level Eritrean military officers with solid
backing from their troops have set conditions on their
continued support for the Isaias regime. This group's
existence has been rumored for several months (Ref A)
although its strength, aims, and composition remain opaque.
Isaias' plan for a major shake-up of national security
structures has reportedly been put on hold due to this
challenge. Isaias was able to implement only the civilian
changes, resulting in the recent cabinet carousel involving
party loyalists (Ref B). Major General Grezgher Andemariam
(aka "Wuchu") has been tasked by Isaias to end the mid-level
officers' challenge, but has failed and has been "frozen" as
a result, the EDA man stated. "Wuchu was in Barentu
yesterday meeting with General Sebhat," he said. Defense
Minister Sebhat, the businessman continued, "is sandwiched
between his loyalty to Isaias and his conscience."


3. (C) AS THE ECONOMY CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE
-------------- --

The EDA member decried the recent EC decision to grant
Eritrea $122m over five years, saying, "This will only
strengthen the government, who will use the money for their
own purposes." He said the long-suffering Eritrean people
are nearly at wits' end and hunger and despair are the norm.
While common Eritreans are afraid to begin any protest
movement, "they would welcome a change and would quickly back
it," the businessman averred. He noted the black market
exchange rate for the Nakfa had recently spiked to 42 to 1
(the official rate is 15 Nakfa to 1 USD),but on April 10 it
settled back to 33 to 1. Why? "The government actually
entered the back market trying to sop up any available
dollars to meet an urgent hard-currency payment for petroleum
or something," he claimed. "It left the market yesterday,
having gotten the dollars it needed; that's why the rate fell
back from 42 to 33 for the dollar." (NOTE: the domestic
black market for Nakfa is nearly invisible, as the regime's
draconian punishments deter most would-be currency traders.
We understand there is a lively exchange for cut-rate Nakfa
in neighboring countries. END NOTE.)


4. (C) OPPOSITION PARTY POLITICS
--------------

"I am realistic enough to see that the exiled political
parties are too weak and divided to bring about a change of
government on their own," the EDA man observed. "We need to
focus on managing the transition, if the military starts the
ball rolling," he concluded. Heretofore the highest-profile
opposition leader had been Mesfin Hagos, a war hero, former
senior government official, and one of the Group of 15 who
penned an open protest to Isaias. Mesfin, resident in
Germany, resigned as head of one of the larger opposition
groups last week. "I was with him ten days ago; he was a
heroic war leader, but he was not a good politician, as he
was stubborn and inflexible," said the EDA member. He opined
that Adhanom Ghebremariam (also a war hero, senior GSE
official, and G-15 member) would play an important leadership
role. "Adhanom is a better politican, but he is emotional
and he is based in Addis Ababa," the EDA supporter said.


5. (C) COMMENT: While this businessman is very well connected
around Asmara, many of the themes he struck have been
reported or alluded to in the opposition media. We see no
sign of regime angst on the streets of Asmara, as the
security presence is surprisingly low-profile. But if the
main challenge is from the garrisons and not the general
population, then there is no reason for more troops to be on
the streets. The annual May 24 Liberation Day ceremonies
will see Asmara flooded with military and other security
units, both to participate in the commemoration and provide
security for it. Isaias would be well-advised to muster the
regime's praetorian guard and to provide a substantial influx
of food and fuel to the city and nearby garrisons by May 24.
End Comment.


MCMULLEN