THE ARS "PATRIOTIC WING"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000117

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS SO ER
SUBJECT: THE ARS "PATRIOTIC WING"

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: With Sheikh Hassen Dahir Aweys still in
Khartoum, senior representatives of the hard-line ARS faction
met with emboffs in Asmara April 8. They were dismissive of
the TFG's limited writ in Somalia and claimed an "inclusive"
peace process was needed. Sheikh Aweys, invited to Sudan by
the NCP's Foreign Affairs Department, "might return to Asmara
or he might go to Mogadishu." All three ARS interlocutors
identified themselves as members of the ARS "Patriotic Wing"
and warned that Sheikh Sharif was a dyed-in-the-wool Islamist
who would eventually show his true colors. Nevertheless,
they opined that al-Shabaab somehow needed to be brought into
a comprehensive political process. The current UN SRSG was
biased, they contended, and should be replaced by a
Scandinavian. The ARS Patriotic Wing seemed out of step with
present Somali political culture and more in line with the
philosophy of the Isaias regime. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Meeting with the ARS Patriot Wing
--------------

The ambassador and poloff met April 8 at the Peacebuilding
Center for the Horn of Africa with three senior officials of
the Aweys hard-line faction of the Alliance for the
Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS). Ahmed Abdi Hashi, chairman
of the faction's International Relations Bureau, was the
senior interlocutor. Now a Canadian citizen, Ambassador
Hashi has served as Somalia's ambassador to the UN and East
Germany. As a younger man he founded a Somali socialist
political organization. He was accompanied by Amina Warsame
Adam ("Secretary of the Human Rights") and "Inspector
General" Mahad Sheikh. Adam is a UK citizen and Sheikh, like
Hashi, is a Canadian.


3. (C) About Aweys
--------------

Aweys was still in Khartoum and definitely did not go there
to negotiate with Sheikh Sharif, they emphasized. The
officials said they didn't know if Aweys would return to
Asmara or go to Mogadishu. He traveled to Khartoum, not as a
guest of the Government of Sudan, they said, but at the
invitation of the Foreign Affairs Department of the National
Congress Party. While Hashi, Adam, and Sheikh all identified
themselves as part of the ARS Patriotic Wing, when asked if
Aweys was also a member, they replied in unison, "No."


4. (C) The "De-Grouping" of the ARS
--------------

Ambassador Hashi blamed SRSG Ould-Abdallah for persuading ARS
Chairman Sheikh Sharif to sign a supposedly secret protocol
in April 2008 that violated the ARS tenants and charter.
Hashi lamented that Sharif did so without the approval of the
ARS Central Committee. The ensuing disagreement within the
ARS resulted in some members supporting the Djibouti process,
others rejecting it. The rejectionist camp was further
split, according to Hashi, when Aweys sent militant Islamist
representatives to Somali "to unite the resistance."
Instead, this group broke from the Aweys ARS faction and
became a component of Hezbul Islam, which Adam characterized
as "sort of like a reconstituted Islamic Courts Union."
Later, they continued, the former ARS Defense Chairman Indha
Adde "de-grouped" from Hezbul Islam to strike an advantageous
deal for himself and his gunmen. The interlocutors noted
ruefully that the endemic ARS "de-grouping" was typical of
Somali politics.


5. (C) On Sheikh Sharif and the Islamists
--------------

Ambassador Hashi provided a detailed (and as far as we could
tell) pretty accurate description of who controls what in
Somalia. Switching to a derisive tone, he said Sheikh Sharif
is holed up in a hotel in northern Mogadishu in a
neighborhood controlled by his sub-sub-sub clan, where "he is
protected by Amisom's armored cars." Sharif commands a total
of 12 tanks, Hashi added. He argued that the TFG controls
little territory, has almost no writ anywhere in the country,

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and that al-Shabaab dominates southern Somalia. Our Somali
interlocutors warned that the international community should
not be duped by Sheikh Sharif posing as a moderate Islamist
and wondered aloud "who do you think will interpret Sharia
law in Somalia?" Adam, clad in a blouse, slacks, and a
headscarf, said she did not want the Islamists to control
Somalia because of the potentially negative impact on women's
rights. "I couldn,t go to Somalia wearing slacks," she
noted. (Her anti-TFG stance derives from the belief that her
husband was murdered by or on the orders of former TFG
President Yusuf a number of years ago.)


6. (C) An "Inclusive" Peace Process Wanted
--------------

Hashi argued that the imbalance between the TFG's
international recognition and support and the territorial
control of al-Shabaab and other members of "the resistance"
somehow needed to be squared before Somalia could be at
peace. The Sharif-led TFG has been still-born, he averred,
because the Djibouti process excluded key "stakeholders." He
posited a future gathering of all stakeholders to agree on a
common way ahead. When the ambassador commented that the
United States would oppose the involvement of a terrorist
organization in governing Somalia, Hashi said Shabaab needs
to be included and provocatively suggested we delist Shabaab
but designate particularly dangerous individuals within the
organization, thus opening the political process to
non-ideological members. Surprisingly, he suggested that
such a confab could perhaps be held in Hargeysa, providing
that the status of Somaliland not be discussed. Ambassador
Hashi, once a schoolteacher in Somaliland, said he remembered
Somaliland's five days of de jure independence in 1960 and
commented that things seem to be working pretty well there
nowadays.


7. (C) COMMENT
--------------

Ambassador Hashi, a dapper and seasoned diplomat, would fit
in well in a gathering of the Socialist International or at
conferences in Davos or Durban. Yet, he and his colleagues
in the ARS Patriot Wing seem oddly out of step with the
realities on the ground in Somalia in 2009. It also seems
ironic that all three leaders of the ARS Patriotic Wing are
citizens of Western countries. While they were open about
all sorts of intra-ARS "de-groupings," they seemed genuinely
unclear about the future of Sheikh Aweys. The ARS Patriotic
Wing probably won't have a role to play in Somali politics
anytime soon, although the country would benefit from the
talents of worldly, educated, and secular individuals that
comprise its leadership. The Eritrean regime likely finds
the ARS Patriotic Wing's rhetoric reassuringly familiar to
its own; it probably also resonates with some older
professionals of the Somali Diaspora.
MCMULLEN