Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ASMARA100
2009-03-27 08:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Asmara
how-toVZCZCXRO1870 RR RUEHROV DE RUEHAE #0100/01 0860853 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 270853Z MAR 09 FM AMEMBASSY ASMARA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0227 INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC RUMICEA/JICCENT MACDILL AFB FL RUEPADJ/CJTF-HOA J2X CAMP LEMONIER DJ RHRMDAB/COMUSNAVCENT RUZEFAA/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000100
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/E
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV SU ER
SUBJECT: PERSPECTIVES ON BASHIR'S VISIT
ASMARA 00000100 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: CDA Melinda Tabler-Stone for reason 1.4(d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000100
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/E
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV SU ER
SUBJECT: PERSPECTIVES ON BASHIR'S VISIT
ASMARA 00000100 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: CDA Melinda Tabler-Stone for reason 1.4(d)
1. (C) SUMMARY: Sudanese and Sudan watchers in Asmara agree
Bashir's visit was a defiant move against the ICC. The
disagreement lies, however, in Bashir's leadership
capabilities. While the Sudanese Embassy stuck to the party
line that Bashir is on his way to fixing the Darfur crisis,
the Eritrean government remained skeptical of Bashir's
ability to stabilize Sudan. The Government of Southern Sudan
(GOSS) has chosen to remain uninvolved in internal NCP
strife. Meanwhile, Eritrea's resident Darfuri groups are
upset at not being included in the peace process. The
Egyptian Embassy was troubled Eritrea took the lead in
hosting Bashir's regional visits, claiming it should have
taken a back seat to more powerful countries. End Summary.
SUDAN EMBASSY TOES THE PARTY LINE
--------------
2. (C) Despite the ICC indictment, Bashir will move forward
to address the issues in Darfur, stated a Sudanese embassy
official. Part of Bashir's strategy will entail inviting
more Darfuri groups to the Doha conference later this month,
he continued with confidence. Although he admitted Bashir's
travel to Eritrea was purely in opposition to the ICC
indictment, he gave no sign that the indictment will hinder
Bashir or his plans for Sudan.
ERITREA - NO CONFIDENCE IN BASHIR
--------------
3. (C) The government of Eritrea (GSE) is united with Bashir
in defying the international community, but is skeptical of
Bashir's leadership, according to an embassy source who
discussed the visit with Abdullah Jaber, Head of
Organizational Affairs at the PFDJ. Abdullah said the GSE
does not believe there is a political force that can take
control of Sudan. The SPLM cannot, he continued, because it
has focused on representing the South and missed its chance
to become a national party. As for the Dafuri groups, the
NCP uses them to divide and weaken the political opposition.
The GSE is critical that the ICC indictment does not provide
any incentives for Bashir to do the right thing. It also
doubts Bashir has the capability or desire to actually
implement Sudan's peace agreements.
GOSS - RESPECTFUL ONLOOKER
--------------
4. (C) According to GOSS chief representative Philip Natana,
the ICC indictment has fractured the already unstable NCP.
Natana said Bashir thinks some in the NCP, who are equally
culpable, might cut deals and sell him out. This belief is
based on the fact that only Bashir was indicted. The GOSS
representative said there is indeed a faction within the NCP
that would like to take Sudan in a different direction.
However, when members of the NCP approached the SPLM on
whether or not it will stand with Bashir in the face of the
indictment, the GOSS preferred to stay out of NCP internal
divisions.
RESIDENT DARFURI GROUPS- WHAT ABOUT US?
--------------
5. (C) Meanwhile, members of three of the resident Darfuri
groups (United Revolutionary Force Front, Revolutionary
Democratic Freedom Forces, and Sudan Federal Democratic
Alliance) expressed dismay at having been left out of last
year's Qatar Initiative. (We could not reach JEM or SLM).
The groups complained that the GOS focused its efforts on
supporting JEM as the key Darfuri movement. They also lashed
out against the AU-UN chief mediator for Darfur, Djibril
Bassole, who they accuse of only meeting with JEM officials.
For the Darfuri groups in Asmara, indictment of President
Bashir means a chance for recognition and an opportunity to
step to the table as relevant factions. The groups claim
they are working towards a conference that will produce a
joint plan of action for Darfur. Having Bashir step down
will aid in these plans gaining recognition, they continued.
EGYPT TAKES UMBRAGE
ASMARA 00000100 002.2 OF 002
--------------
6. (C) Egypt is annoyed that Eritrea took the lead on hosting
Bashir, according to the Egyptian DCM. He continued that
Eritrea is not a regional power like Egypt or Ethiopia, and
should not attempt to make statements ahead of such
countries. He also speculated (correctly) that Bashir will
travel to Tripoli next, and possibly to Doha to conclude his
regional tour of defiance.
TABLER-STONE
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/E
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV SU ER
SUBJECT: PERSPECTIVES ON BASHIR'S VISIT
ASMARA 00000100 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: CDA Melinda Tabler-Stone for reason 1.4(d)
1. (C) SUMMARY: Sudanese and Sudan watchers in Asmara agree
Bashir's visit was a defiant move against the ICC. The
disagreement lies, however, in Bashir's leadership
capabilities. While the Sudanese Embassy stuck to the party
line that Bashir is on his way to fixing the Darfur crisis,
the Eritrean government remained skeptical of Bashir's
ability to stabilize Sudan. The Government of Southern Sudan
(GOSS) has chosen to remain uninvolved in internal NCP
strife. Meanwhile, Eritrea's resident Darfuri groups are
upset at not being included in the peace process. The
Egyptian Embassy was troubled Eritrea took the lead in
hosting Bashir's regional visits, claiming it should have
taken a back seat to more powerful countries. End Summary.
SUDAN EMBASSY TOES THE PARTY LINE
--------------
2. (C) Despite the ICC indictment, Bashir will move forward
to address the issues in Darfur, stated a Sudanese embassy
official. Part of Bashir's strategy will entail inviting
more Darfuri groups to the Doha conference later this month,
he continued with confidence. Although he admitted Bashir's
travel to Eritrea was purely in opposition to the ICC
indictment, he gave no sign that the indictment will hinder
Bashir or his plans for Sudan.
ERITREA - NO CONFIDENCE IN BASHIR
--------------
3. (C) The government of Eritrea (GSE) is united with Bashir
in defying the international community, but is skeptical of
Bashir's leadership, according to an embassy source who
discussed the visit with Abdullah Jaber, Head of
Organizational Affairs at the PFDJ. Abdullah said the GSE
does not believe there is a political force that can take
control of Sudan. The SPLM cannot, he continued, because it
has focused on representing the South and missed its chance
to become a national party. As for the Dafuri groups, the
NCP uses them to divide and weaken the political opposition.
The GSE is critical that the ICC indictment does not provide
any incentives for Bashir to do the right thing. It also
doubts Bashir has the capability or desire to actually
implement Sudan's peace agreements.
GOSS - RESPECTFUL ONLOOKER
--------------
4. (C) According to GOSS chief representative Philip Natana,
the ICC indictment has fractured the already unstable NCP.
Natana said Bashir thinks some in the NCP, who are equally
culpable, might cut deals and sell him out. This belief is
based on the fact that only Bashir was indicted. The GOSS
representative said there is indeed a faction within the NCP
that would like to take Sudan in a different direction.
However, when members of the NCP approached the SPLM on
whether or not it will stand with Bashir in the face of the
indictment, the GOSS preferred to stay out of NCP internal
divisions.
RESIDENT DARFURI GROUPS- WHAT ABOUT US?
--------------
5. (C) Meanwhile, members of three of the resident Darfuri
groups (United Revolutionary Force Front, Revolutionary
Democratic Freedom Forces, and Sudan Federal Democratic
Alliance) expressed dismay at having been left out of last
year's Qatar Initiative. (We could not reach JEM or SLM).
The groups complained that the GOS focused its efforts on
supporting JEM as the key Darfuri movement. They also lashed
out against the AU-UN chief mediator for Darfur, Djibril
Bassole, who they accuse of only meeting with JEM officials.
For the Darfuri groups in Asmara, indictment of President
Bashir means a chance for recognition and an opportunity to
step to the table as relevant factions. The groups claim
they are working towards a conference that will produce a
joint plan of action for Darfur. Having Bashir step down
will aid in these plans gaining recognition, they continued.
EGYPT TAKES UMBRAGE
ASMARA 00000100 002.2 OF 002
--------------
6. (C) Egypt is annoyed that Eritrea took the lead on hosting
Bashir, according to the Egyptian DCM. He continued that
Eritrea is not a regional power like Egypt or Ethiopia, and
should not attempt to make statements ahead of such
countries. He also speculated (correctly) that Bashir will
travel to Tripoli next, and possibly to Doha to conclude his
regional tour of defiance.
TABLER-STONE