KAZAKH AMBASSADOR'S VIEWS ON TURKMENISTAN'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000078

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KZ TX
SUBJECT: KAZAKH AMBASSADOR'S VIEWS ON TURKMENISTAN'S
FOREIGN POLICY

Classified By: Charge Richard Miles, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a recent meeting with the Charge,
Kazakhstan's Ambassador to Turkmenistan touched upon his
country's improving relations with Turkmenistan, ongoing
negotiations about Caspian Sea boundaries and drug
trafficking routes through Central Asia. He analyzed the
Turkmenistan government's unwillingness to allow transit of
non-military cargo for U.S. forces in Afghanistan, explaining
it as an internal decision that reflects the Turkmen extreme
sensitivity about outside military engagement. Briefly
discussing U.S-Kazakh relations, he viewed Kazakh engagement
with the U.S. as important for the future security of his
country. END SUMMARY.

TURKMEN-KAZAKH RELATIONS HAVE IMPROVED


2. (C) On January 14, Charge met with Kazakhstan's Ambassador
to Turkmenistan, Askhat Orazbay, for an exchange of views.
Orazbay mentioned that within three days of his October
arrival in Turkmenistan, he was able to present his
credentials to President Berdimuhamedov. He said this
unprecedented quick reception was a gesture meant to show the
good relations between the two countries, in contrast to the
state of relations under former President Niyazov. In
Orazbay's opinion, Berdimuhamedov's intention is to improve
the lives of Turkmen people and his plans are understandable
and commendable if he succeeds. He thought it would take two
or three years before one could see whether Berdimuhamedov's
plans to improve Turkmenistan's image would bear fruit.

HOPES FOR CASPIAN SUMMIT IN 2009


3. (C) Ambassador Orazbay noted that Turkmenistan and
Kazakhstan have no Caspian delimitation issues. Kazakhstan
and Russia agreed on a "modernized middle line" during
bilateral negotiations in the Yeltsin era. He described the
Caspian special working group meetings, led at the deputy
foreign minister level, that include the five littoral
countries. Each country's delegation at the meetings, which
take place every two-three months, includes legal and
international experts and representatives of relevant
agencies. A Caspian summit meeting should have taken place
in 2008 but was postponed because an agreement could not be
finalized. Orazbay said there were plans for the summit to
occur in Baku this year. The group, which deals only with
the delimitation issue, works hard to reach consensus, and he
noted that Iran's position of "reluctance" had improved a
bit. The Kazakhs have urged an approach to delimitation
similar to that used between Kazakhstan and Russia, but
Turkmenistan, Iran and Azerbaijan have principled
disagreements on some points.

TURKMEN AVOID FOREIGN ENTANGLEMENTS


4. (C) Concerning the Turkmenistan government's refusal to
allow the U.S. military to ship non-lethal cargo across
Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Orazbay said the Turkmen are
very sensitive about military matters. He did not think it
was due to Russian pressure, commenting that Russian
relations with Turkmenistan were "a little different" than
with other CIS countries. "Russia can't use pressure with
Turkmenistan (on such matters) because of Turkmenistan's
gas." Orazbay noted that the Turkmen were very sensitive
about involvement in multilateral matters and structures.
Kazakhstan had seen this in non-military frameworks, for
example, economic cooperation. When military and security
issues were involved, "their fear doubles." Turkmen
officials cite the country's neutral status as soon as they
feel uncomfortable with or doubtful about an issue, because
"it saves them from having to say the real reason."


5. (C) Orazbay continued that, regarding Afghanistan, it
would be a sensitive issue for Turkmenistan to allow NATO to
use its airspace for overflights to another country. He

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noted that Kazakhstan also has a law that prohibits the
military use of its territory by one country directed at a
third country. Transit of cargo to Afghanistan required
parliamentary approval, even though military equipment was
not involved. Citing his former role as Kazakhstan's
Coordinator for Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
matters, he recounted that China asked permission for its
soldiers to transit Kazakhstan enroute to a SCO exercise in
Russia. Despite heavy pressure from China - "it cost a lot"
- Kazakhstan refused. Orazbay thought the refusal to allow
cargo shipments to transit Turkmenistan enroute to
Afghanistan was an internal Turkmen decision. He did not
think Iran was a factor, noting that Iran had no strong lever
with the Turkmen.

TAJIKISTAN THE MAIN DRUG TRAFFICKING ROUTE


6. (C) On the subject of drug trafficking routes, Orazbay
thought Turkmenistan was not the most active, but rather
Tajikistan due to the weakness of its government and the
difficulty of controlling its mountainous border. He said
"everyone with a post-Soviet background" knew that Tajikistan
is the main transit country because of its poverty, noting
that many different categories of Tajiks are involved in
order to earn money.

U.S.-KAZAKH RELATIONS IMPORTANT FOR KAZAKH SECURITY


7. (C) According to Ambassador Orazbay, Kazakhstan needs U.S.
influence to offset Russia and China. "Russia alone could do
what they want, China less so." Kazakhstan appreciates its
relations with the United States in the oil and gas sphere,
but also the USAID programs, healthcare and education.
Kazakh relations with the United States are important for
Kazakh security in the future. The Kazakh political elite
understands the sensitivity of relations with Russia. Its
7400 kilometer border is the longest in the world. That is
why it is obligatory for Kazakhstan to have a good
relationship with Russia. "We can't afford to act like
Saakashvili. Kazakhstan needs balance in order to insure its
independence."


8. (C) COMMENT: As a post-Soviet Central Asian, Orazbay had
insightful views about the sensitivities of Turkmen officials
and their approach to regional issues. He also distinguished
between the degree of Russian influence in Kazakhstan as
compared to Turkmenistan. His comments made clear the
different roles that his government and the Turkmen
government assign to their respective relations with the
United States. END COMMENT.
MILES