TURKMENISTAN: UN CENTER FOR PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000721

SIPDIS

SCA/CEN; INL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAGR SNAR UN TX AF
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN: UN CENTER FOR PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY
SEES ROLE FOR ITSELF IN AFGANISTAN; RESOLVING REGIONAL
WATER DISPUTES

Classified By: Charge Richard Miles, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The head of the UN Center for Preventive
Diplomacy, Ambassador Miroslav Jenca, plans to brief UN and
U.S. officials on the activities of the Center during an
upcoming visit to the U.S. The Center is working on some
ideas to promote stability in Afghanistan and high-level
regional water resource discussions. Jenca expressed the
belief that any efforts to stabilize the situation in
Afghanistan must include the participation of the neighboring
Central Asian states. He also said Central Asian states have
demonstrated that they are more than willing to sit down and
begin to work through their water resource issues, and that
the Center may be the right facilitator. Any progress the UN
Center might achieve on regional water issues resources could
benefit other efforts to promote the development of regional
economic and trade relationships. END SUMMARY.

STABILITY IN AFGHANISTAN


2. (C) On June 5, Ashgabat-based UN Center for Preventive
Diplomacy Chief, Ambassador Miroslav Jenca met with Charge to
brief him on Jenca's planned meetings with UN and other
officials in the United States the week of June 8. He would
be meeting with members of the UN Security Council to report
on the Center's activities over the past six months, as well
as its future plans. He said he would ask the Turkish
Presidency to state the UNSC's position on efforts to
stabilize the situation in Afghanistan. He indicated he
would then go to Washington, DC on June 22, and will meet
with Department of State officials and with members of the
new administration to continue the dialogue between the
Center and U.S. officials. He also mentioned that he would
meet with World Bank officials during his trip, to discuss a
feasibility study on hydroelectric power stations.


3. (C) Jenca said he would like to meet with Deputy
Assistant Secretary George Krol, after he meets with U/S Bill
Burns, presuming he can get on Burns' schedule. He will meet
with Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, and has also asked to meet
with Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy Richard Morningstar.
Jenca wants to have a substantive discussion about ways to
stabilize Afghanistan. The Center has been actively seeking
suggestions regarding how to get the Central Asian states
committed to activities that will help stabilize the country
to their south.


4. (C) Jenca said that once the Afghan presidential
election is over, he will work to organize meetings on next
steps. He noted that the timing "has never been better,"
since several Central Asian states' representatives have
approached him in recent months and asked him to facilitate a
regional discussion on Afghanistan. Turkmen officials, he
said, have invited the Center to organize an Afghanistan
forum in the late fall in Ashgabat. The Center is also
considering a suggestion that it organize "peace talks"
between the various interest groups in Afghanistan, somewhere
in Central Asia, he added. Jenca said it was his position
that it would not be possible to work on resolving the
security situation in Afghanistan without the participation
of the neighboring Central Asian states.

REGIONAL WATER ISSUES


5. (C) The Center's other primary substantive issue, on
which it has focused extensively, is the effort to develop a
constructive regional dialog on water resources. Jenca noted
that, contrary to press reports that claimed otherwise, the
April 28 meeting (International Fund to Preserve the Aral
Sea, held in Almaty) on regional water issues did not end on
a negative note. Although the press covered an initial
session in which it appeared the Central Asian states would
not be able to agree on some final agreement language, it was

ASHGABAT 00000721 002 OF 002


during lunch that the group was able to discuss and agree on
final document language. He said that Kazakhstan President
Nazarbayev's leadership of the International Fund meeting had
a positive influence on the outcome of the gathering.


6. (C) The Center is planning to host a forum this fall on
the sharing of water resources, in Tajikistan, he said. The
Center plans to invite representatives from Afghanistan as
well, since Afghanistan influences regional water resource
issues, he commented. He was encouraged that Tajikistan's
Deputy Water Minister had shown commitment to the forum.
Jenca said the Center hoped to get U.S. Government support
for the water forum in Tajikistan. He anticipated that some
$40,000 would be needed to conduct the forum. Jenca argued
that the success of the April water meeting demonstrates the
readiness of the regional states to discuss water issues. He
also observed that organizing such a forum this fall in
Tajikistan would be a test for the Center and for the Central
Asian states' determination to resolve the issue. Jenca
noted that the Central Asian states recently agreed to
negotiate winter water usage soon, so the subject is of
primary importance for them.

PIPELINE SECURITY AND REGIONAL COUNTERNARCOTICS


7. (C) Turning to other subjects on which the Center is
focused, Jenca said neither the UN in New York nor his Center
had received any final statement text from the Turkmen
Government following the April 23-24 energy security
conference. He speculated that the Turkmen Government was
likely preoccupied with its tiff with Russia over gas
supplies.


8. (C) Jenca said that officials at the UNODC (UN Office on
Drugs and Crime) have begun to notice that the Turkmenistan
State Counternarcotics Service's efforts to battle drug flows
have softened since Murat Islamov's reappointment to the
State Border Service in January. On the other hand, he said,
CARICC (the Central Asia Regional Information and
Coordination Center) was doing a good job, including the
Turkmen contribution there. CARICC, he said, had not yet
issued any reports, but he had heard from UNODC
representatives that CARICC had assessed that drug flows
through Turkmenistan had been higher during the past year in
spite of a reported drop in drug production in Afghanistan in

2008. CARICC is off to a good start, Jenca said, having
fully entered into force this year. All the Central Asian
states, but not Russia, had signed ratifying agreements on
its operations. CARICC's mission is to facilitate the
sharing of regional counternarcotics information, and experts
from all the states have a presence in its Almaty office, he
said. He said it was interesting that Turkmen
counternarcotics information was successfully being shared in
Almaty, although it was not available in Ashgabat.


9. (C) COMMENT: The UN Center for Preventive Diplomacy is
only about a year and a half old, but appears to be finding
traction with the issues it has chosen to pursue. The water
issue is a persistent, grinding problem that hinders Central
Asian states from developing healthy trade and economic
relationships. Any substantive dialog the UN Center can
facilitate on reasonable and cooperative water resource
management would benefit other regional efforts. The UN
Center budget is minimal, and it will need financial
assistance to support the forum it plans for Tajikistan in
the fall. END COMMENT.
MILES