CENTRAL ASIAN WATER DISPUTES HEATING UP; PROSPECTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASHGABAT 000497

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2019
TAGS: PREL PBTS UN ENRG ZK AF TX
SUBJECT: CENTRAL ASIAN WATER DISPUTES HEATING UP; PROSPECTS
FOR REGIONAL ENGAGEMENT WITH AFGHANISTAN

REF: ASHGABAT 486

Classified By: Charge Richard M. Miles, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. On April 16, Miroslav Jenca, the Head of
Office of the Ashgabat-based UN Regional Center for
Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia, briefed Assistant
Secretary for South and Central Asia Richard Boucher about
the Center's work and conditions in the region. According to
Jenca, the April 28 International Fund for Saving the Aral
Sea meeting in Almaty will also include discussion about
upstream water issues. Differences over water issues are
heating up again in the region. The Uzbeks blocked
transmission of Turkmen electricity to Tajikistan this winter
in order to compel the Tajiks to sign a border agreement.
While Afghanistan has legitimate claims to more Central Asian
water, there are factors that weigh against pressing its
claim. Later this year, the Preventive Diplomacy Center
would like to organize an event focused on Central Asian
engagement in Afghan reconstruction, with the aim of matching
Afghan needs with concrete deliverables from its neighbors to
the north. END SUMMARY.

ARAL SEA MEETING TO ADDRESS BROADER WATER ISSUES


2. (C) On April 16, Miroslav Jenca, the Head of Office of the
Ashgabat-based UN Regional Center for Preventive Diplomacy
for Central Asia ("Preventive Diplomacy Center"),briefed
Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia Richard
Boucher about the Center's work and conditions in the region.
Jenca said the next regional event will be the April 28
International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea meeting in Almaty.
In addition to discussing the Aral Sea, participants will
discuss regional water and related-energy issues such as the
construction of upstream dams, as well as the implementation
of the October 2008 agreement reached in Bishkek. The
meeting, to be held at the level of deputy ministers and
water management oficials, is intended to provide a venue for
discussion and will not produce a final document. It also
will not address what will happen next winter, which will be
handled instead at a meeting in the August-September
timeframe. There has been no indication the countries want
to work on a long-term solution to resolving their annual
disputes related to water resource management.

WATER DISPUTES ARE HEATING UP


3. (C) Boucher mentioned that, in an earlier meeting
(reftel),Turkmenistan Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov spoke
bluntly about the need to take into account the interests of
downstream countries. Jenca acknowledged that the water
issue is "heating up" between Central Asian countries. He
cited Russia's USD 1.7 billion commitment to build the
Kambarata-1 hydroelectric project in Kyrgyzstan, which
elicited a tough statement from the Uzbeks that "water issues
would be decided among the countries in the region, not from
outside." Jenca said the Turkmen position has also become
tougher. While in the past, Turkmenistan followed
Uzbekistan's lead on water issues, Meredov's remarks could be
interpreted both as a message intended for Boucher to pass to
the Tajiks, and as an indication that the Turkmenistan
Government will be more assertive in its own right. Jenca
commented that at regional meetings, quarrels normally break
out among the participants, although officials refrained from
quarreling at the Bishkek meeting, perhaps due to his
presence.

WHY UZBEKS BLOCKED TURKMEN ELECTRICITY TO TAJIKISTAN


4. (C) Turkmenistan's part in the Bishkek agreement was to
send electricity to Tajikistan. Jenca pointed out that this
was not a new development. The Turkmen and Tajiks signed an
electricity agreement two or three years ago, but
transmission lines cross Uzbek territory and, at the
beginning of each year, the Uzbeks cut the flow, as happened

again this year. In February, an understanding was reached
between the Uzbeks and the Tajiks where the Tajiks agreed to
ratify a border agreement in exchange for a resumption of the
flow of electricity. Jenca mentioned that the border
agreement covers 90-95 percent of the border, with the
toughest sections left out and the Uzbeks refusing to discuss
landmines in the border areas.

UPSTREAM-DOWNSTREAM TENSIONS


5. (C) Jenca said the Bishkek agreement's energy component
focused on sending coal, gas and oil from downstream
countries to the others, particularly Kyrgyzstan. Uzbekistan
is more concerned about Kyrgzstan than it is about Tajikistan
because the Uzbeks rely on Kyrgyz water to supply the Syr
Darya River. Tajik water only provides 25 percent of the Amu
Darya's flow. The biggest Uzbek-Tajik issue is the Ragun dam
project, about which the Tajiks are obsessed, but which,
according to Jenca, the Uzbeks don't want to see completed.
There are also the Santuda-1 and Santuda-2 projects being
built with Russian and Iranian help, respectively. Iran is
ready to support Tajikistan without taking Uzbekistan into
account. Jenca also said that Uzbek-Tajik relations are a
function of the personal relationship between Presidents
Karimov and Rahmon. He did not see room for improvement.

INVOLVING AFGHANISTAN IN THE PROCESS


6. (C) According to Jenca, if Afghanistan is brought into
discussions about water rights, they will make new demands on
supply. The Afghans currently don't use their full
entitlement and Afghan land near the Amu Darya will be
suitable for agriculture once ruined irrigation works are
restored. He suggested that the Central Asian countries have
no incentive to involve Afghanistan in the water resource
issue, since they have enough problems already. Nonetheless,
the Preventive Diplomacy Center will push to bring
Afghanistan into the process. There remains the question of
how much Afghanistan will want to be involved. The Afghans
currently get more water than they should from water
resources shared with Iran. If they press their claims with
the Central Asians, the Iranians might demand their due. In
addition, Afghanistan needs roads, trade links and energy
from Central Asia and might not want to create an obstacle.


7. (C) The Preventive Diplomacy Center focuses on resolving
regional water and related issues, in coordination with other
UN agencies. The Center's second priority is Afghanistan.
Jenca has begun planning an event to promote the engagement
of Central Asian states in the stabilization and
reconstruction of Afghanistan. Jenca sought U.S. support.
Boucher asked whether the outcome of the event would be
practical measures such as connecting power grids and
developing rail, road and other infrastructure links, or
whether it would involve a more general discussion of how
countries could help. Jenca didn't think another general
discussion of the issue is needed, but rather agreement on
concrete measures such as those mentioned, as well as
capacity building activities in areas such as border control,
customs, and agriculture. The overall concept would involve
matching up ideas and resources in a practical way, drawing
on Central Asian expertise.

TURKMEN ENERGY SECURITY CONFERENCE LACKS FOCUS


8. (C) Concerning the April 23-24 energy security conference
hosted by the Turkmen, Jenca thought the government cares
most about the public relations aspect of the event, and that
the event lacks focus and a way forward. The draft statement
was prepared without consultation with the UN and the notion
of an eventual international convention on the issue should
have been preceded by consultations with member states. When
Jenca discussed the issue of a conference declaration with
Foreign Minister Meredov, he suggested that a presidential
statement would be an option if a declaration can't be

approved.


9. (U) Assistant Secretary Boucher has cleared this cable.
MILES