IRAN/TURKMENISTAN: WAITING FOR RAPPROCHEMENT:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000480

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/IR AND SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2019
TAGS: IR ECON PGOV PREL TX
SUBJECT: IRAN/TURKMENISTAN: WAITING FOR RAPPROCHEMENT:
IRANIAN BUSINESSMAN ENVISIONS U.S.-IRAN COLLABORATION IN
TURKMENISTAN

ASHGABAT 00000480 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Charge Richard Miles, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) In a conversation with Ashgabat Iran Watcher this
week, the general manager of the local office of the
construction company Iran Samen (GM) spoke hopefully about
the possibility of U.S.-Iranian construction joint ventures
in Turkmenistan in the future. Our contact, who has lived
and worked in Ashgabat since 1996, mostly importing machinery
and construction materials, has persevered in the face of the
Turkmen Government's bureaucracy and the endless red tape
that it imposes on foreign companies attempting to do
business. Although the engineering branch of the Iran
Samen's main office in Teheran has completed many large
factory construction projects in Iran, it has not had much
success penetrating the local multi-billion dollar
construction market. Construction in Ashgabat continues at
break-neck speed and is dominated by several large Turkish
firms.

"WE CAN OUTDO THE TURKS"


2. (C) The general manager, who opted not to seek the support
of the Iranian Embassy in Ashgabat for his firm's project
tenders ("they're more of a liability"),said that the
Turkmen Government still does not welcome major Iranian
investment in the country. He said this is due to
Turkmenistan's commitment to "permanent neutrality" and what
it believes such an Iranian presence would portend. "Iran's
problem with America," he explained, "makes the Turkmen
Government reluctant to fully open its doors to us."
Nevertheless, he spoke optimistically about the prospect,
"once the United States reestablishes relations with Iran and
the sanctions regime is ended." He was even more confident
about the superior technical and structural superiority of
Iranian engineering and construction methods. He said,"We
can outdo anything the Turkish firms have produced." He
asserted that "everyone knows" that Turkish firms use what he
termed "shoddy" construction materials and techniques.

"RE-ENGAGEMENT HAS ALREADY BEGUN"


3. (C) Our contact, who traveled to Iran as part of President
Berdimuhamedov's delegation in February, stayed on for
several weeks at his home in Teheran, returning to Ashgabat
after the Nowruz holidays. He commented that, based on his
observations in Teheran, that President Obama's Nowruz
message was "extremely well-received" by all sectors of the
Iranian public. In fact, he said, many people saw the
message as a sign that the U.S. has "already started" a
process of rapprochement towards Iran. Echoing the views
expressed recently by other Iranian contacts, he noted the
Iranian leadership's "mixed feelings" towards re-engagement
with the U.S. "They are afraid that, sooner or later,
Iranians will be emboldened by the changes and demand a
referendum." Regarding the upcoming Iranian presidential
elections, he described Iranians as wanting someone at the
helm who, "like Obama", will bring "positive change" to the
country. He advised that people should listen closely to
Supreme Leader (SL) Khamenei's words: Ordinary Iranians, he
said, particularly those in rural areas, will follow the cues
of the SL, and throw their support behind the candidate he is
perceived to favor. In terms of overall popularity and
likelihood of prevailing in the election, the general manager
said it is impossible to know at this point. Among educated
Iranians, including most Teheranis, he said, Mousavi is still
the favorite. However, his "differences" with the SL make
him somewhat less attractive in the public's eyes than, for
example, Ali Akbar Velayati (the general manager's preferred
candidate). "Either way," he said, "even if Ahmadinejad ends
up being reelected, Iranians will eventually demand a
referendum. We have had enough."

ECONOMIC WOES = LESS ENGAGEMENT


4. (C) According to the general manager, who was a college
student in Shiraz when the Iranian revolution took place, it
was the financial comfort of Iran's middle class that allowed

ASHGABAT 00000480 002.2 OF 002


so many to join in the movement to overthrow the Shah. He
opined that currently, Iran's hyper-inflation and other
economic problems prevents people from fully engaging in the
political process or looking for ways to change the things
they dislike about the leadership. "That's the problem with
so many countries in the Arab world," he said, "If people
were better off, they could focus on bringing democracy to
their countries." In the same vein, he noted that the three
most admired leaders in the Arab world are still Hizbollah
leader Hassan Nasrallah, Khaled Mashal (HAMAS),and, finally,
Ahmadinejad, because the public perceives them as "tough",
and "not afraid to stand up to America and Israel."


5. (C) BIO-NOTE AND COMMENT: The general manager, an ethnic
Baloch originally from the eastern city of Zahedan, is an
engineer by training and has resided in Teheran for all of
his adult life. He is married to an artist and has teenaged
children in Iran. He noted to Iran Watcher that life for
well-off business people in his native Balochistan has become
increasingl hazardous. Taliban members, he said, frequently
cross into Iran from Pakistan and kidnap wealthy Iranians and
then demand large ransoms in return for their release. END
COMMENT.
MILES