SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY BOUCHER,S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 000458

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV TX
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY BOUCHER,S
VISIT TO TURKMENISTAN

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Sylvia Reed Curran. Reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Embassy Ashgabat warmly welcomes your visit
to Turkmenistan as a timely opportunity to advance our urgent
military overflight issues, as well as to show continued
support for U.S. investment in energy resource development,
greater cooperation in education, and progress in human
rights. The most recent high-level U.S. Government visitor
was General Petraeus in early January. The Turkmen will
likely press for a commitment to invite President
Berdimuhamedov to the U.S. this year. END SUMMARY.

INTERNAL STABILITY; EXPANDED EXTERNAL RELATIONS


2. (C) The global financial crisis does not appear to have
had an immediate impact in Turkmenistan. The Ashgabat
construction boom and announcements of other capital
investment projects continue apace. Oil revenues have
fallen, however, and while the Turkmen negotiated favorable
prices for gas sales to Russia and Iran, the prices are not
locked in over the long-term and would most likely fall in
response to declines in market prices. No serious
disturbances to public order have occurred since last
September's Khitrovka shootout. Recently, there have been an
increasing number of signs that President Berdimuhamedov may
be developing his own personality cult, with increasingly
ubiquitous public photographs and the recent naming of a new
mosque in his honor. Still, the excesses of the Niyazov era
are not being repeated.


3. (C) Recent trips by President Berdimuhamedov to
Uzbekistan, Iran and Russia have been opportunities for the
Turkmen to reaffirm their multi-directional foreign policy.
He has been invited to France later this year as well as
Italy. Energy is closely linked to foreign policy, with the
gas pipeline to China reportedly on schedule to carry its
first small shipments at the end of this year, and the recent
announcement of a new gas field development project with
Iran. Despite the pomp and ceremony during Berdimuhamedov's
visit to Moscow, the Turkmen and Russians were not able to
reach an agreement for the construction of a new gas pipeline
across Turkmenistan that would link Eastern gas fields with
potential export pipelines along and under the Caspian.
Concerning Afghanistan, FM Meredov responded to a briefing on
current U.S. policy by saying that Turkmenistan also sees the
problems in Afghanistan and Pakistan as linked, and that they
cannot be solved simply by military means. Meredov praised
the USD 1.5 billion for social and economic aid for Pakistan.
Turkmenistan donates humanitarian aid to Afghanistan,
particularly in the northern part of the country,
constructing schools, hospitals and other projects.
Consideration by the Turkmenistan Government of the project
to supply Turkmen energy to Afghanistan appears to be stuck
within the bureaucracy. The latest update was on March 11,
when we were informed that the Turkmen-Afghan electricity
working group paper was "under consideration."

OVERFLIGHT CAP AND PAYMENT ISSUES


4. (C) The key issue in your discussion with President
Berdimuhamedov will be our need for an increase in the cap on
humanitarian overflights to Afghanistan and a resolution of
the Turkmenistan Government's demand for payment of
overflight fees for non-humanitarian flights. The U.S.
exceeded the agreed overflight cap of 1600 planes by more
than 25% last year. DOD nearly has reached the cap this year
and has had to discontinue overflights. Turkmenistan has
banned the overflight of all USG aircraft not covered by our
blanket overflight agreement until we pay overflight bills
from 2007 and 2008. The U.S. Government does not pay
overflight fees for state aircraft, but we may be able to
resolve this issue with an "in-kind" gift of fuel trucks and
air traffic control equipment. We believe this problem
surfaced because of the lack of revenue to Turkmen State

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Civil Aviation caused by the decision not to land U.S.
aircraft at Ashgabat airport until the fuel pit is repaired.
A fuel pit work-around started at the end of March which
allowed seven aircraft to be refueled prior to the suspension
after nearly eight months of inactivity. MFA also returned
ten overflight requests for DoD contracted aircraft without
action stating that the &issue with the payment of air
navigation services must be resolved.8

HYDROCARBON SECTOR DEVELOPMENT


5. (C) U.S. integrated energy companies such as ExxonMobil,
Chevron, ConocoPhillips and Marathon continue to express
interest in working with the Turkmen to develop energy
projects, but the Turkmen are showing little reciprocal
interest. ConocoPhillips, which has been pursuing an
offshore project and was in the final stages of opening a
local office, was recently rebuffed when its representatives
coming to finalize details for its office were refused
letters of invitation by the authorities. The decision was
reportedly made by the Cabinet of Ministers because there
were no ongoing negotiations with the company, when in fact
the company has been trying to get feedback on its proposal
since last summer, to no avail. The other major firms are
proposing onshore production projects that go against Turkmen
policy of controlling onshore development itself. President
Berdimuhamedov appears convinced that, given enough time, the
Turkmen themselves will be able to hire the necessary
technology and expertise to allow them to manage development
of these resources. None of the U.S. energy companies have
been able to arrange meetings for their senior officials with
Berdimuhamedov. Chevron, which has opened a local office,
has seen no progress. During recent meetings with Marathon
officials, the Turkmen encouraged them to open an office in
order to show their commitment, but Marathon expressed
reluctance without some sign of traction on their proposal.

CONTINUED OBSTACLES TO COOPERATION IN EDUCATION


6. (C) President Berdimuhamedov and his officials repeatedly
emphasize that reforming the education sector has been one of
their top priorities, and he has said to U.S. visitors the
hardest task is to change the mentality of a people. And
yet, to date, the president's (and government's) focus has
been more on improving the shell than on reforming the core
of the educational system. While there has been little
emphasis placed up to now on retraining teachers or on
modernizing the curricula, there have been some clear signs
that the government may be considering curricula changes for
institutions of higher education. In particular, the
Minister of Education is eager to re-start a Texas A&M
partnership that would reform Turkmenistan's sole business
education program to American standards over the next 3-4
years, among many other USG or other Western proposals to
which he has responded favorably. At lower levels, however,
the system -- including some hard-core hold-outs like the
infamous Nury Bayramov, the Ministry of Education's
International Relations head -- continues to constrain
individual initiative and block suggestions for improvements
and reforms from reaching the Minister. In particular, many
returned exchange participants are prevented or discouraged
from returning to their places of work or study.

RESPECT FOR BASIC HUMAN RIGHTS REMAINS POOR


7. (C) While the Turkmen have made some improvement in their
treatment of minority religious groups, in general, the human
rights situation remains grim. Key areas for improvement
include allowing ICRC experts access to prisons, removing
curbs on freedom of movement including blacklists of people
barred from traveling, ending pressure on RFE/RL journalists,
and allowing non-government groups freedom to operate. On
the positive side, the Turkmen have undertaken or will
undertake extensive redrafting of legislation such as the Law
on Public Organizations and the Law on Religion, in

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collaboration with USAID implementers who provide commentary
on the shortcomings of existing laws and organize roundtables
for discussion of revisions. The Institute for Democracy and
Human Rights is one of the government bodies most open to and
cooperative with foreign donors and serves as a clearinghouse
for the many of the reform efforts in this area.

WHAT WILL THE TURKMEN BE LOOKING FOR?


8. (C) Foreign Minister Meredov has made clear that President
Berdimuhamedov would like to visit Washington this year. In
light of trips during the past year to China, South Korea,
Germany, Russia, among others, the lack of a U.S. trip stands
out. The upcoming conference on energy transit security,
which will take place in Ashgabat on April 23-24, follows up
on the Turkmen-sponsored UN resolution on the same topic. A
tremendous point of pride for the President, the conference
will attract some high-level Russian and EU participation.
At the end of March, FM Meredov stressed the importance of
U.S. participation at the conference at the highest possible
level.
MILES