IRAN: HUNGARIAN DIPLOMAT IN TEHRAN DESCRIBES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 001534

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/IR AND SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2019
TAGS: IR PGOV PREL PHUM TX
SUBJECT: IRAN: HUNGARIAN DIPLOMAT IN TEHRAN DESCRIBES
CHILLING EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT VIOLENCE

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Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Sylvia Reed Curran. Reasons 1.4(b) and
(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Iran Watcher spoke recently with a Hungarian
Embassy officer based in Tehran, who described the growing
frustration of Iranian business leaders with the government's
policies. He said that more and more businesses cannot meet
their obligations and are declaring bankruptcy. In his
conversations with Iranian contacts, he discerns a "chilling
effect" of the government's use of violence against
protesters and the harsh penalties and long sentences being
imposed on detainees. He noted the observation of some in
Iran that the security forces are targeting female protesters
with particular harshness. He also commented on the Iranian
government's response to the H1N1 epidemic, the absence of
intellectual property protections, and other trends in Iran.
END COMMENT.


2. (C) Szabolcs Tutto, who heads the Economic and Trade
section at the Hungarian Embassy in Tehran, spoke at length
with Iran Watcher this week on a variety of topics, including
Iranian government actions against the opposition movement,
the state of the economy, life as a diplomat in Tehran and
others. Tutto has been in Tehran for about 18 months, travels
extensively throughout Iran, and visits Turkmenistan twice a
year, where he is also an accredited diplomat. He was in
Ashgabat this time to conduct a forum on business
opportunities for the Turkmen government and companies with
Hungarian firms.

IRANIAN BUSINESS LEADERS INCREASINGLY FRUSTRATED


3. (C) Tutto said that he was recently in Mashhad meeting
with business leaders and industrialists to promote trade
between Hungary and Iran. "At every stop," he said, and in
other cities as well, factory owners and other business
leaders expressed to him their opposition to the government,
and told him that opposition members and sympathizers exist
in much greater numbers than the government will admit or is
known to the rest of the world. Many also expressed the view
that the government's actions, especially concerning the
nuclear issue, are harming the economy and destroying
businesses. He said that the Masshad business people he met
appeared extremely frustrated, and seemed relieved to have an
opportunity to air their views. One of them predicted that
the coming months, particularly the international community's
possible extension of sanctions to necessities such as fuel,
could signal a "turning point."


4. (C) Overall, he said, Iranian companies are declaring
bankruptcy in greater numbers than ever before, in part
because of the economy's reliance on petro dollars, as last
year's oil price drop caused serious problems. For the same
reason, he said, more and more companies are failing to honor
contracts and defaulting on loans. He predicts that increased
sanctions, if implemented, will cause inflation in Iran to
skyrocket even further.

HARSH SENTENCES AND VIOLENCE AGAINST PROTESTERS: A CHILLING
EFFECT


5. (C) Tutto said that his contacts in Iran have indicated
that, notwithstanding the swelling ranks of both the
opposition and Iranians who identify and sympathize with the
movement, the sweeping arrests and harsh sentences imposed on
detained protesters are having a "chilling effect" on how far
people will go to oppose the government. He described the
Green Movement as in a state of "waiting," and trying to
decide how best to move forward. "People are thinking twice
before taking to the streets," he said. At the same time, he
said, the government tries to project an image of not
tolerating gratuitous violence in the prisons, such as its
decision to put a dozen guards from (the now shut-down)
Kahrizak prison, accused of rape and other atrocities, on
trial.

DEMONSTRATIONS: WOMEN TARGETED?

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6. (C) Tutto has heard from local contacts in Tehran that the
security forces seem to be targeting women in particular in
their violence against the protesters. The rationale for this
is that women are more easily discouraged by beatings and
violence, and that by focusing on female protesters, the
authorities can significantly weaken the opposition. He cited
the example of the mother of a local Embassy employee,
reportedly in her sixties, who was beaten and seriously
injured in a recent protest. People present said that the
Basij were targeting female protesters. Rumors abound as well
that the Basij have received training in anti-protest
techniques, including "hit and run" (where security forces
move in quickly and beat the protesters harshly with batons
and then quickly disperse and move on) from the Russian
"Spetsnaz" (special forces).

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RULES? NOT IN IRAN


7. (C) Tutto describes Iran as a place where "everything is
pirated, and everything is available." Just walking down the
street, he said, one can purchase just-released American
films not yet out on DVD in the U.S., computer software, and
all kinds of books (even pirated copies of Lonely Planet's
Iran travel guide, sold for between 20 and 30 dollars in the
U.S. and Europe, is available in Iran for less than five
dollars). He said some Hungarian Embassy staff who want to
learn FARSI have procured the complete Rosetta Stone FARSI
language course, normally retailing for hundreds of dollars,
for just ten dollars. In addition, the latest Adobe software
is just two dollars in Tehran.

H1N1 VACCINE IS AVAILABLE....BUT ONLY TO THE MILITARY AND IRGC

8.(C) Iran reportedly has no means of producing its own H1N1
vaccine and procured only two million doses (apparently from
China). It reserved them only for the IRGC and members of
the military, according to Tutto. This is despite the fact
that the World Health Organization advises that to
effectively prevent an H1N1 epidemic, 50% of the population
should receive the vaccination. Iran has reportedly
experienced a 265% increase in H1N1 cases since July and a
spike in deaths, he said.

A MULLAH IN EVERY SCHOOL; TALK OF EVEN STRICTER SHARIA
APPLICATION


9. (C) Tutto made mention of the government's plans to place
a member of the clergy in every school in Iran, with
particular focus on primary schools. He said the government
sees this as the only viable way of countering the opposition
movement among Iran's youth, particularly as 70 percent of
Iran's population is under the age of 30.


10. (C) Another effect of the opposition movement's challenge
to the government is the latter's attempt to placate
religious hard-liners in Iran, according to Tutto. He
recently heard about statements by a law enforcement
commander that the authorities are ready to start "cutting
off heads" and "amputating hands," in apparent reference to
criminal penalties applied under strict, literal
interpretation of the Sharia to some criminal offenses.

MICROWAVES TO BLOCK TELEVISION TRANSMISSIONS


11. (C) Tutto said that he is frustrated by the lack of
satellite news channels available at his home on his
embassy's compound in North Tehran, including CNN, which has
been unavailable now for months. He said the authorities use
a system of microwaves, which, in addition to being an
annoyance, could reportedly also cause harmful health effects
to the population. An embassy colleague who resides in
another part of Tehran has fewer stations blocked, he said,
and is able to receive CNN.


12. (C) COMMENT: Our interlocutor, a FARSI-speaking diplomat
based in Tehran who travels extensively throughout the

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country, has his ear to the ground in Iran. His observations,
many of which recount disturbing actions by the Iranian
authorities, also give a colorful picture of everyday life in
the Islamic Republic. END COMMENT.
CURRAN