Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ASHGABAT1402
2009-11-02 12:24:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ashgabat
Cable title:  

HUNGARIAN AMBASSADOR TO TEHRAN DISCUSSES "BURNING

Tags:  PREL KDEM IR TX 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 001402 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2019
TAGS: PREL KDEM IR TX
SUBJECT: HUNGARIAN AMBASSADOR TO TEHRAN DISCUSSES "BURNING
EMBERS" OF CHANGE IN IRAN

REF: 08 ASHGABAT 1420

Classified By: Charge Sylvia Reed Curran for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 001402

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2019
TAGS: PREL KDEM IR TX
SUBJECT: HUNGARIAN AMBASSADOR TO TEHRAN DISCUSSES "BURNING
EMBERS" OF CHANGE IN IRAN

REF: 08 ASHGABAT 1420

Classified By: Charge Sylvia Reed Curran for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Hungarian Ambassador to Iran Gyorgy Busztin
met October 29 with Charge to share his views on the
situation in Iran. Busztin said the protests marked a
turning point for the country, because the government lost
legitimacy and people felt the power they had to promote
change. He said increasingly people are calling for the end
of the Islamic Republic and the creation just of an Iranian
Republic. Busztin said the dire economic situation of the
country and growing inflation threatens the viability of the
regime and is causing greater hardship for the population.
He doubted Iranian sincerity in the nuclear talks, but
believed their failure would lead to a crackdown on civil
society. Busztin encouraged the United States to stay the
course and that sanctions should be directed at the
government rather than at the people. END SUMMARY.

GROWING SUPPORT FOR A SECULAR REPUBLIC


2. (C) Hungarian Ambassador in Tehran Gyorgy Busztin, who is
also accredited to Turkmenistan, met with Charge on October
29 to share his views on the situation in Iran. Busztin said
there are very serious internal divisions in the regime, with
the Revolutionary Guard, together with Khameini and
Ahmadinejad, trying to push back the traditional clergy. It
was important for the Revolutionary Guard and Khameini that
Ahmadinejad had an overwhelming victory. However, Busztin
said, no one believes that Ahmadinejad won. Most believe
that Mousavi won.


3. (C) In Busztin's estimation, many people, especially in
the larger cities, want change. These people are divided
between those who want measured change and those, primarily
young people and others, who want to see the Islamic Republic
dismantled and replaced by an Iranian Republic. Busztin said
the signs promoting "Iranian Republic" that protesters
carried reflected a profound change in the population.
Conservatives believe that the West's support of the
protesters was in order to foment a "velvet revolution."

POST-ELECTION PROTESTS


4. (C) Busztin predicted that the number of people against
the regime will grow over the next 6 - 12 months and protests

could restart. Iran is not the same country it was before
the elections. People feel that they can make a difference.
He noted there were 3 million people on the streets of Tehran
protesting. The "embers are just below the surface," still
burning. For now, however, most people are fearful of the
consequences if they take to the streets. Trials are still
ongoing. Many of the reform movement leaders have been
killed, are behind bars, or have disappeared. (Although
Mousavi and others are still free.) All of this was meant to
terrorize the population into submission. There is a
moratorium on assemblies. However, on November 4, which is
the holiday of "Occupation of the Den of Spies," (the day the
U.S. Embassy was seized) is a traditional day for rallies.
Busztin believed we could see huge rallies on that day,
although both sides would use the holiday for their own ends.
He noted that many of those active in the reform movement
are veterans of the seizure of the American Embassy. He said
this fact makes young Iranians wonder what happened to the
"revolution."


5. (C) Busztin said he was impressed with the people during
the protests, from elites down to the grassroots. For 1-1/2
months, people would get on their rooftops at 10:00 p.m. and
scream "Allahu Akbar." There was widespread, very deep
resentment. As the protests went on, the government lost
legitimacy.

MOUSAVI

ASHGABAT 00001402 002 OF 003




6. (C) Although free, Mousavi is under constant surveillance.
He manages, however, to maintain contact with colleagues.
Busztin said the opposition is coalescing around Mousavi.

DIRE ECONOMIC STRAITS


7. (C) Busztin said that the country's worsening economic
state is putting pressure on the regime and causing greater
hardship for the people. He predicted it could eventually
become untenable. There has been no substantial investment
in the oil and gas sector for the past 15 years, and
therefore, it has been difficult to maintain the level of
production. Busztin said that if the government cannot get
substantial investment, production will dry up. In
addition, there has been significant mismanagement of the
economy as the government adopts poor financial policies.
Busztin estimated that the rate of inflation was 20-30% and
said the government's inflationary policies were bad for the
people.


8. (C) Busztin said the Iranian parliament approved a range
of subsidies for fuel and basic foodstuffs. He said this
will lead to an 11% increase in inflation. Busztin predicted
that any increase in inflation will be an unbearable burden
for government workers (who are generally low paid) and those
in the gray economy. He said 50-70% of workers are employed
by the state or state-owned enterprises. It's difficult for
the young to find a job. The private sector is very limited.
The bazaaris, who are the middle class, feel increasingly
alienated.


9. (C) Iran was to have started a privatization process.
However, many industries were turned over to "power centers"
like the Revolutionary Guards. For example, when a foreign
buyer was disqualified from buying the largest telecom firm,
the Revolutionary Guards bought it.


10. (C) The economy is very reliant on foreign imports, and
the "import mafia" have a huge interest in maintaining this
situation. The government keeps the Iranian rial at an
unnaturally high price, making the situation more favorable
for imports than for exports. And domestic producers cannot
compete with the flood of imported goods. Busztin said it is
a difficult environment in which to do business.

NUCLEAR TALKS


11. (C) Busztin said any negative outcome to the nuclear
talks could lead to a stronger clampdown, although the
government would be reluctant to move full force against the
reform movement. He offered that Iran consented to the
nuclear talks in order to make itself more palatable to the
West. Nevertheless, Busztin did not believe the regime wants
to make any significant changes. The regime is willing to go
along with IAEA plans to send the uranium to Russia and
France. However, the Iranian government will always come up
with new conditions in order to stall. In the meantime, he
believed the Iranians would feverishly continue with their
nuclear program and said they have many, well-concealed
nuclear sites. He opined that the Iranians could be closer
to their target than the West imagines. He said when the
regime is in trouble, it resorts to nationalism and uses the
nuclear program to rally the people.

ISLAM AS A POLITICAL FORCE


12. (C) Busztin said the government uses Islam as a political
tool and so religion has increasingly less political
influence. Ahmadinejad has called for restoring a pure
Islamic revolution. Busztin explained this is aimed at a
certain layer of the clergy that has used its position to
pillage. Religious foundations, also known as Bonyads, have
amassed great fortunes, some of which are used for criminal
purposes. Part of the money has been reinvested in Iran, but

ASHGABAT 00001402 003 OF 003


most has been invested abroad or is in Western banks.
Rafsanjani heads one foundation, and he has acquired a lot of
property in the Toronto area. Ahmadinejad talks a lot about
the corruption of the traditional clergy. Ahmadinejad would
like to see the Bonyads' wealth incorporated into the state
economy and use the sizable wealth for the government.

OUTSIDE WORLD


13. (C) The regime realizes it is viewed critically by the
outside world. For that reason, there has been a government
campaign against satellite dishes. BBC FARSI is extremely
popular, and so the government jams it, VOA, and CNN, with
increasingly sophisticated equipment. The government also
periodically blocks the Internet.

ADVICE


14. (C) Busztin's advice to Washington was to stay the
course. It is important to negotiate, so that civil society
in Iran does not feel let down. He also believed that
sanctions should be directed to hurt the government and not
the people. Busztin (protect) complained that European
countries looked at their economic interests to the detriment
of the Iranian people, rather than promoting European
principles of democracy.


15. (C) COMMENT: Busztin is a valuable interlocutor, who
always seeks us out to share developments in Iran, whenever
he is in town. He provides a valuable window on a society
where we do not have people on the ground. END COMMENT.
CURRAN