Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ANTANANARIVO90
2009-02-09 08:44:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:
MADAGASCAR: ABANDONING RAVALOMANANA
how-toO 090844Z FEB 09 FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2054 INFO CIA WASHDC PRIORITY DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY DIA WASHDC PRIORITY HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000090
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: ABANDONING RAVALOMANANA
Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.
C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000090
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: ABANDONING RAVALOMANANA
Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.
1. (C) KEY CONTACTS ARE TELLING THE AMBASSADOR THAT SUPPORT
FOR RAVALOMANANA FROM WITHIN THE MILITARY AND HIS OWN
GOVERNMENT IS WEAKENING. KEY MINISTERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
RESIGN THIS MORNING, WHILE THE MILITARY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ON THE SIDELINES AND LET THE POLITICS PLAY OUT.
2. (C) NAVY CHIEF ADMIRAL ABEL RADAVIDSON CAME BY MY
RESIDENCE ON SUNDAY MORNING FOR COFFEE. HAVING CALLED ME ON
SATURDAY EVENING RIGHT AFTER THE BLOODBATH, HE REITERATED HIS
DEEP CONCERN THAT EVENTS WERE OUT OF CONTROL AND THAT THE
PRESIDENT, IN PARTICULAR, "NEEDS TO BE REIGNED IN. HE NEEDS
TO CEDE POWER." ON SUNDAY, HE CONVINCINGLY REAFFIRMED THE
MILITARY'S DEVOTION TO RESPECTING THE CONSTITUTION WHILE
WORKING HARD TO MAINTAIN AND RESTORE ORDER. HE SAID THAT
GENERAL LUCIEN, THE RECENTLY APPOINTED ARMY CHIEF, WAS
COMMITTED TO "STAYING WITHIN THE CONSTITUTION" AND HAD GREAT
OVERSEAS TRAINING ON THE PROPER LINES BETWEEN THE MILITARY
AND THEIR CIVILIAN LEADERSHIP. THAT SAID, THEY HAD ALL LOST
RESPECT FOR RAVALOMANANA AND HIS IDIOSYNCRASIES AND STRANGE
DECISIONS. HE CITED THE RECENT PURCHASE OF A DOLS 60 MILLION
PRESIDENTIAL AIRCRAFT, RATHER THEN USING THE MONEY FOR
GREATER NATIONAL PRIORITIES; RADAVIDSON SAID HE COULD HAVE
BOUGHT AN ENTIRE COAST GUARD FOR THAT PRICE. THE BLOODBATH
ON SATURDAY "CROSSED A LINE" FOR MOST MALAGASY AND HE DOUBTED
THE PRESIDENT COULD SURVIVE NOW. HE SAID THAT HE IS
CONVINCED, AS ARE OTHER SENIOR MILITARY, THAT THE
PRESIDENTIAL GUARD WHO FIRED ON THE UNARMED CIVILIANS
INCLUDED RECENTLY-ADDED FOREIGN SOLDIERS. HE SAID THAT HE
THOUGHT HE HAD IDENTIFIED SOME OF THEM -- SOUTH AFRICANS --
WHEN HE RECENTLY FLEW BACK VIA JOHANNESBURG FROM THE IMO
CONFERENCE IN DJIBOUTI. THE DOUBLE INSULT TO THE MILIARY --
ADDING FOREIGNERS TO THE GUARD AND ALLOWING THEM TO KILL
UNARMED MALAGASY -- WAS DEEPLY RESENTED WITHIN THE MILITARY,
WHO ARE NOW TARNISHED WITH THIS IGNOMINIOUS ACT EVEN THOUGH
THEY WERE NOT PART OF THE VIOLENT RESPONSE. THE SAID THAT HE
UNDERSTOOD THE DEFENSE MINISTER TO BE RESIGNING (WHICH BECAME
PUBLIC THIS MORNING).
3. (C) ON MONDAY MORNING ENVIRONMENT MINISTER HARISON
RANDRIAMANANA CALLED ME IN A DEEP STATE OF DESPAIR, A CLOSE
PRESIDENTIAL INSIDER (INDEED, HE WAS ONE OF THE THREE WHO
ENGAGED IN SECRET NEGOTIATIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ON
BEHALF OF THE PRESIDENT),HE SAID HE WAS BEDRIDDEN WITH
HYPERTENSION, UNDER DOCTOR'S ORDERS, HIDING IN A FRIEND'S
HOUSE, AND READY TO COLLAPSE. HE FORETOLD COMING
RESIGNATIONS AND OPENLY DEBATED WHETHER HE TOO SHOULD FOLLOW
SUIT. HE WAS RELUCTANT TO RESIGN, HE SAID, ONLY BECAUSE HE
DID NOT WANT TO GIVE MOMENTUM TO THE MAYOR'S TEAM, WITH WHOM
HE WAS FURIOUS AND DISGUSTED. "THEY LIED TO US ON FRIDAY:
THEY PROMISED THEY WOULD MAKE THEIR ANNOUNCEMENTS BUT NOT
ADVANCE ON THE PALACE. THEN THEY DID., IT WAS INTENTIONAL."
HE DEBATED ALOUD WHETHER THERE WAS ANYTHING THE PRESIDENT CAN
STILL DO TO HOLD POWER: DISSOLVE THE GOVERNMENT, APPOINT A
POWERFUL COTIER PRIME MINISTER, CANCEL THE AU SUMMIT, ETC?
HE OBSERVED THAT "RAVALOMANANA IS LISTENING TO NO ONE." HE
CONFIRMED THE ARREST WARRANT FOR THE MAYOR AND OPINED THAT IT
WOULD JUST ENVENIMATE THE SITUATION FURTHER (A POINT
RADAVIDSON ALSO MADE).
4. (C) A DESPONDANT ECONOMICS MINISTER IVOHASINA
RAZAFIMAHEFA ALSO CAME BY ON SATURDAY TO DISCUSS HIS
CONCERNS. HE ALSO SAID HE WAS READY TO RESIGN, IF THAT WOULD
HELP MATTERS, BUT HE WAS NOT DECIDED. HE SAID THAT ALL
MINISTERS ARE LIVING IN FEAR, AFRAID FOR THEIR AND THEIR
FAMILIES' LIVES, AND DO NOT FEEL SUPPORTED BY THE PRESIDENT,
WHO REMAINS LARGELY ISOLATED. HE WANTED TO UNDERSTAND
STATEMENTS I AND THE EUROPEAN UNION HAD MADE ON FRIDAY, IN
WHICH WE ACKNOWLEDGED SOME OF THE LEGITIMATE CONCERNS OF THE
MALAGASY PEOPLE AND IN WHICH THE EU DISCLOSED PUBLICLY FOR
THE FIRST TIME THAT CERTAIN ASSISTANCE PAYMENTS HAD BEEN
SUSPENDED BY THOSE PROVIDING DIRECT BUDGET SUPPORT, OUT OF
CONCERN FOR GOVERNANCE ISSUES. HE LEFT UNDERSTANDING THAT,
FOR THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, IT WAS NO LONGER "BUSINESS
AS USUAL" IN OUR RELATIONS WITH THE GOM. HE SAID IT WAS
UNCLEAR, HOWEVER, WHETHER THAT MESSAGE WAS REACHING THE
PRESIDENT.
MARQUARDT
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: ABANDONING RAVALOMANANA
Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.
1. (C) KEY CONTACTS ARE TELLING THE AMBASSADOR THAT SUPPORT
FOR RAVALOMANANA FROM WITHIN THE MILITARY AND HIS OWN
GOVERNMENT IS WEAKENING. KEY MINISTERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
RESIGN THIS MORNING, WHILE THE MILITARY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ON THE SIDELINES AND LET THE POLITICS PLAY OUT.
2. (C) NAVY CHIEF ADMIRAL ABEL RADAVIDSON CAME BY MY
RESIDENCE ON SUNDAY MORNING FOR COFFEE. HAVING CALLED ME ON
SATURDAY EVENING RIGHT AFTER THE BLOODBATH, HE REITERATED HIS
DEEP CONCERN THAT EVENTS WERE OUT OF CONTROL AND THAT THE
PRESIDENT, IN PARTICULAR, "NEEDS TO BE REIGNED IN. HE NEEDS
TO CEDE POWER." ON SUNDAY, HE CONVINCINGLY REAFFIRMED THE
MILITARY'S DEVOTION TO RESPECTING THE CONSTITUTION WHILE
WORKING HARD TO MAINTAIN AND RESTORE ORDER. HE SAID THAT
GENERAL LUCIEN, THE RECENTLY APPOINTED ARMY CHIEF, WAS
COMMITTED TO "STAYING WITHIN THE CONSTITUTION" AND HAD GREAT
OVERSEAS TRAINING ON THE PROPER LINES BETWEEN THE MILITARY
AND THEIR CIVILIAN LEADERSHIP. THAT SAID, THEY HAD ALL LOST
RESPECT FOR RAVALOMANANA AND HIS IDIOSYNCRASIES AND STRANGE
DECISIONS. HE CITED THE RECENT PURCHASE OF A DOLS 60 MILLION
PRESIDENTIAL AIRCRAFT, RATHER THEN USING THE MONEY FOR
GREATER NATIONAL PRIORITIES; RADAVIDSON SAID HE COULD HAVE
BOUGHT AN ENTIRE COAST GUARD FOR THAT PRICE. THE BLOODBATH
ON SATURDAY "CROSSED A LINE" FOR MOST MALAGASY AND HE DOUBTED
THE PRESIDENT COULD SURVIVE NOW. HE SAID THAT HE IS
CONVINCED, AS ARE OTHER SENIOR MILITARY, THAT THE
PRESIDENTIAL GUARD WHO FIRED ON THE UNARMED CIVILIANS
INCLUDED RECENTLY-ADDED FOREIGN SOLDIERS. HE SAID THAT HE
THOUGHT HE HAD IDENTIFIED SOME OF THEM -- SOUTH AFRICANS --
WHEN HE RECENTLY FLEW BACK VIA JOHANNESBURG FROM THE IMO
CONFERENCE IN DJIBOUTI. THE DOUBLE INSULT TO THE MILIARY --
ADDING FOREIGNERS TO THE GUARD AND ALLOWING THEM TO KILL
UNARMED MALAGASY -- WAS DEEPLY RESENTED WITHIN THE MILITARY,
WHO ARE NOW TARNISHED WITH THIS IGNOMINIOUS ACT EVEN THOUGH
THEY WERE NOT PART OF THE VIOLENT RESPONSE. THE SAID THAT HE
UNDERSTOOD THE DEFENSE MINISTER TO BE RESIGNING (WHICH BECAME
PUBLIC THIS MORNING).
3. (C) ON MONDAY MORNING ENVIRONMENT MINISTER HARISON
RANDRIAMANANA CALLED ME IN A DEEP STATE OF DESPAIR, A CLOSE
PRESIDENTIAL INSIDER (INDEED, HE WAS ONE OF THE THREE WHO
ENGAGED IN SECRET NEGOTIATIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ON
BEHALF OF THE PRESIDENT),HE SAID HE WAS BEDRIDDEN WITH
HYPERTENSION, UNDER DOCTOR'S ORDERS, HIDING IN A FRIEND'S
HOUSE, AND READY TO COLLAPSE. HE FORETOLD COMING
RESIGNATIONS AND OPENLY DEBATED WHETHER HE TOO SHOULD FOLLOW
SUIT. HE WAS RELUCTANT TO RESIGN, HE SAID, ONLY BECAUSE HE
DID NOT WANT TO GIVE MOMENTUM TO THE MAYOR'S TEAM, WITH WHOM
HE WAS FURIOUS AND DISGUSTED. "THEY LIED TO US ON FRIDAY:
THEY PROMISED THEY WOULD MAKE THEIR ANNOUNCEMENTS BUT NOT
ADVANCE ON THE PALACE. THEN THEY DID., IT WAS INTENTIONAL."
HE DEBATED ALOUD WHETHER THERE WAS ANYTHING THE PRESIDENT CAN
STILL DO TO HOLD POWER: DISSOLVE THE GOVERNMENT, APPOINT A
POWERFUL COTIER PRIME MINISTER, CANCEL THE AU SUMMIT, ETC?
HE OBSERVED THAT "RAVALOMANANA IS LISTENING TO NO ONE." HE
CONFIRMED THE ARREST WARRANT FOR THE MAYOR AND OPINED THAT IT
WOULD JUST ENVENIMATE THE SITUATION FURTHER (A POINT
RADAVIDSON ALSO MADE).
4. (C) A DESPONDANT ECONOMICS MINISTER IVOHASINA
RAZAFIMAHEFA ALSO CAME BY ON SATURDAY TO DISCUSS HIS
CONCERNS. HE ALSO SAID HE WAS READY TO RESIGN, IF THAT WOULD
HELP MATTERS, BUT HE WAS NOT DECIDED. HE SAID THAT ALL
MINISTERS ARE LIVING IN FEAR, AFRAID FOR THEIR AND THEIR
FAMILIES' LIVES, AND DO NOT FEEL SUPPORTED BY THE PRESIDENT,
WHO REMAINS LARGELY ISOLATED. HE WANTED TO UNDERSTAND
STATEMENTS I AND THE EUROPEAN UNION HAD MADE ON FRIDAY, IN
WHICH WE ACKNOWLEDGED SOME OF THE LEGITIMATE CONCERNS OF THE
MALAGASY PEOPLE AND IN WHICH THE EU DISCLOSED PUBLICLY FOR
THE FIRST TIME THAT CERTAIN ASSISTANCE PAYMENTS HAD BEEN
SUSPENDED BY THOSE PROVIDING DIRECT BUDGET SUPPORT, OUT OF
CONCERN FOR GOVERNANCE ISSUES. HE LEFT UNDERSTANDING THAT,
FOR THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, IT WAS NO LONGER "BUSINESS
AS USUAL" IN OUR RELATIONS WITH THE GOM. HE SAID IT WAS
UNCLEAR, HOWEVER, WHETHER THAT MESSAGE WAS REACHING THE
PRESIDENT.
MARQUARDT