ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON WEEKLY UPDATE (22-DEC-2009)

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000876

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E MARIA BEYZEROV
DEPT PASS TO USAID/AFR/EA ASHLEY MARCUS
DOC FOR RTELCHIN
TREASURY FOR FRANCOIS BOYE
PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN
LONDON FOR PETER LORD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EINV MA
SUBJECT: ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON WEEKLY UPDATE (22-DEC-2009)

REF: A) 09 ANTANANARIVO 868
B) 09 ANTANANARIVO 870
C) 09 ANTANANARIVO 874


1. (U) SUMMARY: This is U.S. Embassy Antananarivo's Weekly Update
for December 7 to 22, an unclassified review of major political,
economic, and commercial events and information from the U.S.
Mission to Madagascar and the Comoros.

POLITICS (Paragraphs 1-5)
- Rajoelina kills the Maputo process
- Yet another new prime minister
- Confrontation at Tsimbazaza
- Military officers break rank
- Civil society discusses taboo twins

ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL (Paragraphs 6-8)
- Promoting the tourism sector: a tough sell
- Agricultural exports reduced in 2009
- Precious wood exports continue

COMOROS (Paragraph 9)
- Ruling party maintains hold in parliamentary elections

END SUMMARY

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POLITICS
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1. (SBU) RAJOELINA KILLS THE MAPUTO PROCESS: On December 16,
Transition President Andry "TGV" Rajoelina effectively declared an
end to cooperation under the troubled Maputo process (reftel A),and
unilaterally announced that elections would instead be held in March

2010. Opposition leaders rejected his plan in a December 18 press
conference, but Rajoelina proceeded to sack all of the opposition
members of the short-lived unity government, including the Prime
Minister, both Co-Presidents, and the President of the Congress
(reftel C). On December 20, Rajoelina named Colonel Camille Albert
Vital as his new Prime Minister (see para 2),although consensus PM
Eugene Mangalaza refuses to step down. Opposition leaders have
promised to continue implementing the Transition Charter without
Rajoelina, essentially forming a parallel government. Rajoelina's
call for a "holiday truce" appears to have fallen on deaf ears -
although few Malagasy appear to support renewed confrontation, at
least until early January.


2. (SBU) YET ANOTHER NEW PRIME MINISTER: On December 20, Rajoelina
named Colonel Albert Camille Vital as Prime Minister. Vital is
relatively unknown, and claims to have not met Rajoelina prior to
December 20. As a member of the Vezo ethnic group, from Tulear, he
may satisfy those in the south-west who were incensed over the
October sacking of PM Roindefo Monja (also from Tulear),but his
appointment has little other immediate benefit. Vital holds a
degree in civil engineering from the USSR, and twice studied in
French military schools, in 1991 and 2001. His highest military
assignment was as Chef de Corps of the First Regiment Fifth Military
in Tulear from 1998 to 2001. He left the military in 2007 to launch
a private security company in Tulear, and has been President of the
Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Tulear since 2008. He has ties
to both the Ratsiraka and Rajoelina political factions, but has
little experience in politics. Vital is rumored to have been
Rajoelina's third choice, after Rear Admiral Hyppolite Ramaroson and
General Ismael Mounibou.


3. (SBU) CONFRONTATION AT TSIMBAZAZA: Madagascar's three opposition
political movements tried on December 22 to "install" their
legislative representatives in the building of the former National
Assembly in Tsimbazaza (south-west of city center),but were foiled
by around 500 members of the EMMO-Reg security force (Regional Joint
Operations Command, a blend of police and gendarme forces). Very
few demonstrators showed up, efforts by opposition leaders to
negotiate entry were short and ineffective, and the crowd was
dispersed around noon with a small amount of tear gas (estimated 10
canisters). There was only one person reportedly injured, due to
tear gas inhalation. Thirteen people were reportedly arrested; all
but three were released later in the day. The timely and
overwhelming response from EMMO-Reg is in sharp contrast to the
general disorder that marked such efforts from January to April
2009, and will temper opposition enthusiasm for a repeat performance
any time soon.

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4. (SBU) MILITARY OFFICERS BREAK RANK: The day before Rajoelina's
December 16 declaration, nine military officers from the army and
the gendarmerie met with the press and issued a statement without
prior authorization from their commanding officers. They called on
politicians to continue negotiations, for Rajoelia to lift the entry
ban on the Maputo III participants who were marooned in South Africa
(they have since returned),for the armed forces to remain neutral,
and for calm among the population. The Army Chief of Staff, the
Commander of the Gendarmerie, and the Minister of Defense uniformly
condemned their stand as an unauthorized breach of military
professional secrecy; they also accused the officers of partiality
towards Ravalomanana. Sanctions were to be taken, consistent with
military discipline and regulations, but they were limited to the
suspension of the two Gendarmerie colonels from their functions in
the cabinet of the Secretary of State in Charge of Gendarmerie.


5. (U) CIVIL SOCIETY DISCUSSES TABOO TWINS: The Albert Camus
Cultural Center (CCAC) and the Center for Analysis and Strategic
Planning for Development in Madagascar (CAPDAM) sponsored events
with UNICEF to educate the public on the taboo against twins that
exists in the district of Mananjary in the Vatovavy Fitovinany
region of Madagascar. A photography exhibit was held on December 7,
followed by a roundtable discussion on December 12, to raise
awareness of this taboo and encourage people to fight against the
practice of abandoning twins.

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ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL
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6. (SBU) PROMOTING THE TOURISM SECTOR - A TOUGH SELL: A National
Tourism Conference was held in Antananarivo on December 10-11,
followed by the tourism fair "Enjoy" on December 12-13. These
events were aimed at promoting the tourism sector, after severe hits
by the global economic crisis and the Malagasy political crisis in

2009. According to the Ministry of Tourism, 119,352 tourists
visited Madagascar during the first three quarters of 2009, against
267,280 during the same period in 2008 (375,010 for the full year
2008),a 55 percent decline. Conference attendees called for the
reduction of all taxes related to tourism activities, the creation
of a Tourism Development Fund, the renewal of the Investment Code
and the strengthening of training for young students interested in
the tourism sector. Few foreign operators participated in the
tourism fair, due to continued uncertainty in the ongoing political
crisis.


7. (SBU) AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS REDUCED IN 2009: Vanilla and litchi
exports, which represent nearly half of total agricultural product
exports, encountered difficulties this year. The fixing of vanilla
export prices at USD 27/kg resulted in a loss of competitiveness, as
international market prices varied from USD 15/kg to USD 25/kg.
Consequently, 1,000 tons of vanilla went unsold this year. Litchi
exports were hit by low rainfall in 2009, which reduced harvests;
only 19,000 tons were exported, compared to 22,000 tons in 2008.


8. (U) PRECIOUS WOOD EXPORTS CONTINUE: Despite a ban on the
exploitation and commercialization of precious wood (a brief
authorization of exports expired on November 30, and then-PM
Mangalaza ordered a ban on any further exports),a ship transporting
174 containers of rosewood reportedly left Vohemar port on December
2, 2009, and 100 other containers are ready for embarkation. Their
owners have apparently received export authorization, paid related
fines, and are waiting for a shipment authorization. PM Mangalaza
had asked local officials to provide a detailed accounting of all
payments received under the brief export authorization by December
10, 2009, but as he was among the politicians stranded in South
Africa until December 18, it is unclear if his order was followed.
The renewed ban was welcomed by local and international NGOs, but it
is unclear if the new PM shares Mangalaza's determination.

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COMOROS
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9. (U) RULING PARTY MAINTAINS HOLD IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS:
Comoros completed its second round of voting in parliamentary
elections on December 20, with President Sambi's ruling coalition
winning a majority of seats based on initial results. International
observers declared the election a success, despite lingering
concerns over low turnout, voter registration, and operational

ANTANANARI 00000876 003 OF 003


difficulties on election day.


MARQUARDT