MADAGASCAR: HOLDING AN ICG IN JANUARY -- BEFORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000870

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E MARIA BEYZEROV
PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN
LONDON FOR PETER LORD
ADDIS FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: HOLDING AN ICG IN JANUARY -- BEFORE
SPARKS FLY

REF: 09 ANTANANARIVO 868

Classified By: AMBASSADOR MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On December 18, Ambassador Marquardt hosted
the COMs of France, Germany, Mauritius, South Africa, the
European Union, and the United Nations to discuss Rajoelina's
recent public address, plans for a future meeting of the
International Contact Group (ICG) on Madagascar, and the
apparent death of the Maputo process (reftel). The COMs were
in agreement that the holiday season is likely to remain
calm, but that political confrontation will resume in earnest
in January. Before it does, the next ICG must be held
outside of Madagascar, without Malagasy participation, in
early January. As backdrop to the meeting, GOM contacts
confirmed this morning that the Maputo III delegates
currently stranded in South Africa are expected to return to
Madagascar today at 1330. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) France is the only country or entity so far to release
any public statement on Rajoelina's December 16 speech, in
which he unilaterally declared an end to the Maputo
"cohabitation" plan, and unilaterally announced elections for
March 20, 2010. The December 17 Quai statement asserts that
"...elections in March 2010 will not contribute to a durable
solution unless there are sufficient guarantees of
transparency, control by an independent electoral commission,
and supervision by international election observers", before
inviting the Malagasy parties to restart dialogue and seek
consensus. French Ambassador Chataigner indicated that
personally "he wished Paris hadn't released it" -- a
sentiment fully shared among COMs before Chataigner's late
arrival at the meeting. Chataigner added his view that
elections could not be successful unless a transition
government had been set up first, a consensual election
commission formed, and the participation of opposition
parties ensured. The entire group fully expects the
opposition to reject the call for elections once their
leadership has returned from being marooned (and muzzled) in
South Africa.


3. (C) The other COMs were all more categorical in their
opposition to elections on March 20. UN Acting
Representative Metcalf underlined the fact that the UN would
not be providing election support without a four-month lead
time; this also gives them a convenient way to bow out
without having to pronounce on the political difficulties
posed by Rajoelina's unilateral plans, he said. Making clear
that the USG would not touch unilateral elections, Ambassador
Marquardt cautioned the UN against falling into a trap
whereby TGV might come back with a longer electoral timetable
and request UN support; better simply to say the UN won't
support any unilateral elections, period. Mauritian
Ambassador Lemaire was most vocal about the impossibility of
"free and fair" elections in the current environment, raising
concerns in particular about the lack of any neutral judicial
structure for complaints about irregularities. Germany, the
US, the EU, and South Africa were all in agreement that the
election plan was unrealistic, and unlikely to succeed as
long as it remains a unilateral initiative from Rajoelina.


4. (C) Those present generally agreed that the holiday season
would be quiet, following today's expected return of the
Maputo III participants, stranded on the continent since
early December. Although German Ambassador Moser agreed with
Ambassador Marquardt that military intervention is a real
possibility, he believes that the military will respect the
holiday season, and would still require some additional
pretext for intervention in January, such as the threat of
mass protests. AGOA was discussed as a possible
trigger/pretext for military intervention, although not
necessarily immediately folowing any announcement of
suspension, coming as it would in the midst of the holidays.
Chataigner stated his impression that Army Chief of Staff
General Andre Ndriarijaona is more concerned with maintaining
unity within the armed forces than in intervening in
political feuds, as long as they remain violence-free. That
mirrors our own assessment, although we are more pessimistic
on prospects for calm in January.


5. (SBU) Wrapping up, the COMs unanimously agreed that the
next ICG meeting must be held outside of Madagascar, ideally
the week of January 11, without Malagasy participation. This

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message must reach the AU, which is the principal convening
authority for the ICG, but also SADC, the UN, and OIF. The
status of the ICG remains very unclear, following TGV's call
for the international community to butt out, but all agreed
that there must be a continuing international role and that
all COMs should continuue passing that message to TGV's
entourage in order to keep options open for international
mediation. They also agreed that the UN-SADC-AU-OIF
coordination mechanism for all future international mediation
must be substantially improved, as disconnects and working at
cross purposes had contributed to the current failure.
Particularly as he UN and AU are both moving forward on
opening offices in Antananarivo, the structure of their
operation should be coordinated. The UN mentioned that Jean
Ping and Ban Ki-Moon will discuss this issue within the
coming week.


6. (U) Suggested action request for USUN, USAU, and Embassy
Gaborone: Assuming AF agrees, we request that the
conclusions in para 5 above be shared with Menkerios,
Lamamra, and Salamao before Christmas, in order to avoid
last-minute ICG planning in early January.
MARQUARDT