GROWING THREAT OF PIRACY IN MALAGASY AND COMORAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000781

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E MARIA BEYZEROV, AF/RSA
STATE ALSO FOR DS/IP/AF BRENDAN MURRAY
PARIS FOR WBAIN
LONDON FOR PLORD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2019
TAGS: PHSA EWWT MARR MA CN MP SE
SUBJECT: GROWING THREAT OF PIRACY IN MALAGASY AND COMORAN
WATERS

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF DOVIE HOLLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: Piracy in the Indian Ocean is expanding south
and east beyond the Gulf of Aden and the Somali coast, and
will likely reach Malagasy or Comoran territorial waters by

2010. Neither country has the resources to deter or respond
to this threat, nor will they be able to rely on French naval
assets in the region (based out of Reunion) for assistance.
Given the relatively small number of incidents in the region
thus far, counter-piracy measures will continue to be most
effective near Somalia, where the bulk of attacks occur.
However, as increasingly successful efforts there drive
activity elsewhere, Madagascar, Comoros, Mauritius and
Seychelles will have to address this growing threat. END
SUMMARY.

PIRACY EXPANDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM SOMALIA
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2. (C) Two recent attacks near Assumption Island (part of
Seychelles' Aldabra group of outer islands) provided insight
into the growth of piracy in the Indian Ocean. While the
vast majority of activity remains concentrated in the Gulf of
Aden and the Somali coast, increasingly effective
countermeasures are driving entrepreneurial pirates further
afield. Information from recent debriefs of the crew of the
Indian Ocean Explorer, hijacked in March 2009, indicate that
the vessel was captured by an experienced crew responsible
for several high-profile hijackings in 2008 to 2009. The
pirates reportedly stated their intention to expand their
operating area towards Madagascar and the Maldives, and
target cruise ships for their ability to bring in a high
ransom.


3. (C) According to DOD statistics, there have been 153
incidents (including attempted boarding, vessels fired upon,
and vessels hijacked) in the Indian Ocean from January to
October 2009 alone, compared with only 86 in all of 2008.
The territory in which pirates operate has expanded massively
over the past several years, growing from roughly 165
nautical miles (nm) off the coast of Somalia in 2005 to 1,000
nm in 2009. The recent attacks in Seychelles' waters brings
piracy within about 200nm of Malagasy shoreline.
Furthermore, the Mozambique Channel, which separates
Madagascar from mainland Africa, represents a prime target
with its heavy shipping traffic. On November 5, press
reports indicated that a Greek cargo ship, the Delvina, had
been hijacked by suspected Somali pirates 220 nm north of
Madagascar, as the ship was traveling en route to Mombasa,
Kenya.

MADAGASCAR AND COMOROS UNABLE TO RESPOND
--------------

4. (C) Madagascar and Comoros do not have the naval assets
necessary to respond to the threat of piracy. Madagascar's
sole capable patrol asset is a single fishing surveillance
ship; Comoros has none at all. In the event of a pirate
attack, these countries would likely seek assistance from
France, which has a naval presence in nearby Reunion - but
the distances are too great for any kind of rapid response,
and France does not maintain any deterrence in the Mozambique
Channel. The governments of Mauritius and Seychelles are
more cognizant of this threat, and have been seeking training
and resources from regional allies, but they too will be
unable to assist if trouble arises in Madagascar or Comoros.


5. (C) COMMENT: Madagascar and Comoros remain far from the
action, but the threat of piracy is increasingly real, and
there will likely be incidents within Madagascar's
territorial waters by 2010. The threat remains too low to
justify an international response at this time, but should
there be an increase in attacks, these countries will be
entirely unable to address the problem without help, and they
have not been oblivious to the extensive media coverage of
international efforts to assist the Seychelles as piracy has
crept into their territorial waters. END COMMENT.


6. (SBU) This cable has been cleared by Embassy Port Louis.
MARQUARDT