Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ANTANANARIVO767
2009-11-09 15:25:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:  

MALAGASY LEADERS STRIKE A DEAL IN ADDIS ABABA

Tags:  PGOV MA 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANTANANARIVO 000767 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E MARIA BEYZEROV AND EEB/TPP/BTA AHOLMAN
PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN
LONDON FOR PETER LORD
STATE PLEASE PASS USTR FOR WJACKSON AND CHAMILTON
DOC FOR RTELCHIN
TREAS FOR FBOYE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV MA
SUBJECT: MALAGASY LEADERS STRIKE A DEAL IN ADDIS ABABA

REF: A. 09 ANTANANARIVO 752

B. 09 ANTANANARIVO 747

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANTANANARIVO 000767

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E MARIA BEYZEROV AND EEB/TPP/BTA AHOLMAN
PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN
LONDON FOR PETER LORD
STATE PLEASE PASS USTR FOR WJACKSON AND CHAMILTON
DOC FOR RTELCHIN
TREAS FOR FBOYE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV MA
SUBJECT: MALAGASY LEADERS STRIKE A DEAL IN ADDIS ABABA

REF: A. 09 ANTANANARIVO 752

B. 09 ANTANANARIVO 747


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: This is an action request; see paragraph

12. Three months after Madagascar's four main political
leaders signed their breakthrough Transition Charter in
Maputo, the long-awaited transition government is finally on
the starting blocks. Over four days of talks in Addis Ababa,
Andry "TGV" Rajoelina and former Presidents Ravalomanana,
Ratsiraka, and Zafy reached agreement on almost all of the
top positions in the transition government, as well as a
number of modifications to the August 9 Charter that should
allow them to move beyond the current political impasse:
Rajoelina keeps his position as president and head of state,
Ravalomanana maintains influence without personally
participating, Ratsiraka and Zafy keep their
disproportionately large representation in all of the
transition bodies, and the remaining details to be decided,
though not insignificant, will not require further
"summit-level" talks. While imperfect, this agreement is a
breakthrough that offers the first real hope that Madagascar
will soon move from crisis to transition, and plausibly hold
free and fair elections by the end of 2010. The agreement
has already garnered praise from UN SYG Ban Ki-Moon and
French FM Kouchner; Post strongly urges that vocal support
follow from Washington as soon as possible (suggested text in
paragraph 12). END SUMMARY.

SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS IN IMPLEMENTING THE MAPUTO ACCORDS
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) In the wee hours of November 7, the four leaders
signed an addendum to the August 9 Charter of the Transition,
finally naming individuals to most of the key positions in
the transition government, and making some slight
modifications to the original charter. Rajoelina remains
president and head of state, but shares power with two
"co-presidents": Fetison Andrianirina, a lead negotiator
within Ravalomanana's movement, and Emmanuel Rakotovahiny,
nominated in October by Zafy for the position of vice
president, which has now been eliminated. The two
co-presidents make up a "Presidential Council", charged with
"assisting" the president; their signature is required on
presidential acts taken in cabinet meetings, but it remains

unclear how much influence they'll have beyond this advisory
capacity.


3. (SBU) Eugene Mangalaza, a Ratsiraka nominee accepted in
October by the four movements as a consensus Prime Minister,
retains his position, and may now be able to take the reigns
of government; his nomination had been blocked by outgoing PM
Roindefo Monja, who at present has not been given any role in
the transition government. Mangalaza will have three vice
prime ministers (one each from the other three movements),
and there will be 31 cabinet-level positions - six for each
of the political movements, plus an additional seven for
"other entities", expected to include civil society
organizations and the business community. Assignment of
specific ministries began in Addis and will continue in
Madagascar this week; there is already agreement on at least
seven ministries, including interior. The most contentious
remaining portfolios are justice, finance, and mines and
hydrocarbons.


4. (SBU) The four also reached agreement on the basic
composition and leadership of the other transitional
government bodies, although each movement will now have to
directly nominate roughly 80 individuals to fill their
respective quotas across the six separate entities. These
are as follows:

- Mamy Rakotoarivelo, nominated by Ravalomanana, will be
President of the Transition Congress (Congres de Transition,
equivalent to the former National Assembly),with 52 members
per movement, and 50 for "other entities", totaling 258
members.


ANTANANARI 00000767 002 OF 004


- A Rajoelina nominee will be President of the High
Transition Council (Conseil Superior de Transition,
equivalent to the former Senate),with 13 members per
movement, totaling 65.

- Albert Zafy himself will be President of the Council for
National Reconciliation (Conseil National de Reconciliation,
or CNR),with two members per movement in addition to Zafy,
totaling nine.

- The High Transition Court (Haute Cour de Transition) will
have 11 members, four of which will be directly nominated by
the political movements, and the remaining seven will be
nominated by other government bodies listed here.

- The Economic and Social Council (Conseil Economique et
Social) will have 72 members, with 10 per movement and 32 for
civil society organizations.

- The Think Tank on Defense and National Security (Comite de
Reflexion sur la Defense et la Securite Nationale) will have
eight members, with two per movement.


5. (SBU) In addition, they have committed to implementing the
planned National Independent Electoral Commission (Commission
Electorale Nationale Independante, or CENI) no later than
December 2009, as part of the first national conference.
Article 12 of the addendum also reiterates their request for
the African Union to set up a follow-up mechanism in
accordance with the original charter, to remain involved in
the implementation of the charter.

POSITIVE SIGNS
--------------


6. (SBU) Overall, this agreement is an important, positive
step forward. The selection of top-level leadership (with
buy-in from Rajoelina and Ravalomanana) for these key
positions clears the path to form the rest of the transition
bodies. Most of the key stakeholders are represented, even
if some of the smaller interests (such as former PM Monja's
limited support base) have missed out on this round. Just as
importantly, there is no need for any further "summits",
either here or abroad - none of the remaining positions
should require the personal intervention of the four leaders,
even if there are still some contentious ministerial
positions left to be decided.


7. (SBU) This agreement also confirms support for the
original election calendar put forth in the Maputo charter.
Once the CNR is formed (under Zafy),a new round of "national
meetings" will take place, during which the CENI (electoral
commission) will be formed. Early estimates for a referendum
on a revised constitution range from January to May (despite
the rainy season),and subsequent elections could take place
as early as June - but no later than November, per the
charter. According to UN Senior Mediator Tiebile Drame, the
GOM will need significant donor support for the CNR and its
work, which will have a direct impact on the revised
constitution, and on the electoral calendar itself; post is
evaluating avenues for possibly providing assistance. Also
of note is a new provision in this addendum requiring the
president and the co-presidents to step down 60 days before
elections if they intend to participate in them. The
addendum maintains the restrictions against any other members
of the government running in the election.

CHALLENGES REMAIN
--------------


8. (SBU) Mangalaza, now back in Tana, said that the
government would be formed rapidly, and they would quickly
get to work implementing the charter, but there remain
several points of possible contention in the coming weeks.
The justice, finance, and mines and hydrocarbons portfolios
will be the most difficult to assign, as all four movements
seek to control these powerful ministries. UN Mediator

ANTANANARI 00000767 003 OF 004


Tiebile Drame indicated in a briefing on November 9 that
finance will probably go to the Ratsiraka movement, but
justice is lQy to be particularly difficult given the
competing interests over the charter's amnesty provisions and
the challenges of applying Madagascar's shifting legal bases
to events over the duration of the crisis so far and the
upcoming transition period.


9. (SBU) Once the government is formed, it is also not a
given that these nominees will mesh well for the duration of
the transition. Ravalomanana's appointment of Fetison,
instead of a more divisive character such as former
Ravalomanana PM-designate Manandafy Rakotonirina, is a
positive sign; Drame is optimistic that they will be able to
work together. However, there remain many opportunities for
all sides to "reinterpret" the documents to serve their ends;
already, questions have arisen as to the balance of power
between the president and the co-presidents - Rajoelina
reportedly sees the co-presidents' role as akin to that of an
expanded vice president (playing an advisory role, and
backing up the president),while Ravalomanana likely sees the
co-presidents as fully-engaged partners in the presidency.


10. (SBU) A final challenge is purely logistical: the
implementation of these agreements, and the installation of
400 to 500 appointees across the transition government, will
be a massive, expensive bureaucratic exercise. There will be
many moving parts that must all proceed in a coordinated
manner, under a Prime Minister with very little executive
experience, all of which will bear heavily on the outcome of
a multi-stage electoral process in the next 12 months.

INTERNATIONAL REACTION
--------------


11. (SBU) UN SYG Ban Ki-Moon has already released a statement
congratulating the four leaders on the power-sharing
agreement, and urging them to implement the deal quickly.
France's FM Kouchner read a statement on November 7 calling
on them to "show the same sense of national interest during
the transition period which now begins", and to quickly
establish the transition's new institutions and organize
upcoming votes. The European Union has yet to make a
much-awaited decision on the status of its EUR 630 million of
foreign assistance to Madagascar, and may not do so for some
time (although the threat of cutting these suspended funds
was key to encouraging the four leaders to reach agreement in
Addis). The AU will meet today to discuss recent events, and
will likely issue a statement supporting these developments,
while waiting for implementation before considering
Madagascar's full reinstatement to the organization.


12. (U) ACTION REQUEST: Post requests the Department to
express high-level support for this agreement; with all eyes
now on EU aid and US trade, this is a rare opportunity for us
to congratulate Madagascar's leaders while maintaining real
pressure on them to continue moving forward. Post would
strongly prefer release of this statement in Washington, but
is prepared to release is Tuesday here if necessary.
Following is a suggested text for Department consideration:

BEGIN STATEMENT

The United States is very encouraged by the consensual,
inclusive agreement reached during the recent summit in Addis
Ababa, Ethiopia. We congratulate all four political
movements for their willingness to negotiate in the true
spirit of compromise and for making concessions for the
benefit of the Malagasy people. The U.S. government also
applauds the tireless efforts of the International Contact
Group led by former Mozambican President Joachim Chissano.
The United States believes that continued compromise and
inclusivity are vital to the return of a democratic and
constitutional Republic of Madagascar. We call on all
parties to respect the commitments they have made and
continue to work together in good faith to implement the
transition government, establish the independent national

ANTANANARI 00000767 004 OF 004


electoral commission, and set a realistic date for elections.
The United States stands ready to assist Madagascar in
moving forward toward free and fair elections to be held as
soon as possible in the coming year.

END STATEMENT

A MOMENT FOR OPTIMISM, IF STILL CAUTIOUS
--------------


13. (SBU) COMMENT: Post has not yet heard a definitive
version of why Ravalomanana and Rajoelina at last saw eye to
eye; it was likely a combination of factors that made this
latest "last chance" effort bear results. Drame noted to the
Ambassador that the almost daily contact with the State
Department, particularly the telephone interventions of
Ambassador Carter with Ravalomanana, had been beneficial, as
had pressure from EU and French representatives on the ground
in Addis. Rumors of a possible military takeover no doubt
weighed on Rajoelina as well. But no less important was the
extent to which the Malagasy people have grown tired of this
conflict, and have lost faith in these squabbling
politicians' ability to address their real concerns - which
are overwhelmingly economic and social, and have little to do
with national politics. Engagement by donors, including the
USG, will be vital to the implementation of these agreements,
as well as for the success of elections themselves. A
decision to suspend AGOA at this time would be particularly
poorly received by the Malagasy, and the rest of the
international community. Indeed, in his November 9 briefing,
Drame openly expressed the hope that this agreement and its
implementation will be sufficient for the EU to forego
sanctions and for the USG to maintain AGOA.


14. (SBU) The top-heavy nature of this government will
undoubtedly lead to further disputes and power struggles, but
this "Addis addendum" explicitly recognizes that the
transition government has no more important function than to
organize transparent and credible elections. This agreement
allows them to move from crisis to transition, and represents
the single largest step forward since the crisis began almost
a year ago. END COMMENT.
MARQUARDT