ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON WEEKLY UPDATE (09/25/2009)

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SUBJECT: ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON WEEKLY UPDATE (09/25/2009)

REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 676


1. (U) SUMMARY: This is U.S. Embassy Antananarivo's Weekly Update
for September 21 to 25, an unclassified review of major political,
economic, and commercial events and information from the U.S.
Mission to Madagascar and the Comoros.

POLITICAL (paras 2-7)
- Rajoelina at the UN General Assembly
- Trial of Legalist leaders
- Political demonstrations
- Civil society enters the mediation fray
- Pierrot: Birth of a new party, death of an old one?
- Tana Mission offsite

ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL (paras 8-11)
- Madagascar-Thailand cooperation
- Review of mining contracts, adoption of new petroleum code
- Shipwreck leads to possible ecological disaster
- Visit to Self-Help Projects

END SUMMARY

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POLITICS
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2. (SBU) RAJOELINA AT THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY: Antananarivo has been
calm this week, with all eyes on New York as HAT President Andry
"TGV" RAJOELINA prepared for a speech to UNGA. He is currently
slated to speak in the afternoon on September 25, according to the
UN website, although his presidency remains unrecognized by the
international community - and the UN itself. Rajoelina's attendance
at UNGA, and particularly his invitation to a Wednesday meeting on
climate change, has sparked intense speculation about "UN
recognition" of Madagascar's ruling HAT. Internet media, however,
has also noted that Rajoelina's request to meet with the Secretary
General was declined, and that he was left out of a White House
event for African leaders (see ref A).


3. (SBU) TRIAL OF LEGALIST LEADERS: Pro-Ravalomanana leaders
Manandafy RAKOTONIRINA and Ihanta RANDRIAMANDRATO received suspended
sentences on September 22 (of two years, and of six months,
respectively) for breach of public and state security, inciting
civil war, misuse of title, unauthorized organization of public
gatherings, and destruction of public property. They were released
in August, following the Maputo I accords, and had remained out on
bail since. Former Senator Eliane NAIKA, arrested on September 12
for alleged involvement in recent violence, was also released on
bail on the 22nd. A dual French/Malagasy citizen, she has since
left the country for Europe, after stating publicly that she had
been "brutalized but not raped." Ms. Randriamandrato's husband,
Ralitera ANDRIANANDRAINA, remains the only high-profile prisoner of
concern still being held; his case has been pushed back several
times, and he is currently scheduled for a hearing on September 30.


4. (SBU) POLITICAL DEMONSTRATIONS MUTED: Following the AU's
announcement of an ICG-M meeting to take place in Antananarivo on
October 6, former President Albert ZAFY'S movement suspended further
demonstrations; demonstrations by Ravalomanana's movement continued
on a small scale at the Magro facility north of city center. The
three movements have, however, planned a joint political rally for
Saturday, September 26, in apparent contradiction of their previous
announcement (see ref A).


5. (SBU) CIVIL SOCIETY ENTERS THE MEDIATION FRAY: Numerous civil
society organizations joined together on September 18 to propose
that they, along with the armed forces, re-launch talks between the
four movements with a focus on implementing the Maputo accords.
Their stated goal is to reach a resolution before the ICG-M meeting
on October 6. Army Chief of Staff Andre NDRIARIJAONA has gone only
as far as stating that he is not against a mediation role if
required, but political leaders have given the idea a cooler
reception. This is but the latest in a series of civil society
initiatives over the course of the crisis to insert themselves into
the mediation effort. All previous attempts have been stymied by
the lack of a coherent position within civil society, and widespread
perceptions of partisanship among their leaders.


6. (U) BIRTH OF A NEW PARTY, DEATH OF AN OLD ONE? On September 19,
Pierrot RAJAONARIVELO announced that he would create a new political
party in two weeks, with a focus on reducing poverty and

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implementing "real [...] development, democracy, and good
governance". This announcement triggered dissent within the two
main AREMA factions (AREMA is the party of former President Didier
Ratsiraka, which split into three factions after Ravalomanana's 2002
victory, one of which was headed by Rajaonarivelo). Pro-Ratsiraka
members of AREMA denounced the move, declaring that Rajaonarivelo
had already left the party in 2007; Rajaonarivelo's supporters
retort that he remains SG of AREMA, and that other "factions" had
misled Ratsiraka, and public opinion, in an attempt to split the
party after 2002. Regardless of the fallout within AREMA, this move
positions Rajoanarivelo for a presidential bid in any eventual
elections.


7. (U) OFFSITE: Mission staff held a strategic planning retreat
September 21 and 22 at the Peace Corps training facility two hours
East of Tana to discuss ideas for the coming year. An action plan
and democracy strategy paper will be developed based on the fruitful
discussions to inform the Mission's engagement in Madagascar and the
Comoros.

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ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL
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8. (U) MADAGASCAR-THAILAND COOPERATION: A Thai delegation arrived in
Madagascar on September 16 and met with HAT Prime Minister Roindefo
MONJA. Mr. Sengmamy, head of the delegation, announced investments
of USD 10 million over ten years. The alleged investments will
cover several sectors, such as agriculture, tourism, mining,
micro-finance, and the rehabilitation of the main avenue of the
capital. This would be a significant expansion of Thailand's
previous investments in Madagascar, which were primarily in the gem
industry.


9. (SBU) REVIEW OF MINING CONTRACTS, ADOPTION OF NEW PETROLEUM CODE:
Recently-appointed HAT Minister of Mining and Hydrocarbons Mamy
RATOVOMALALA announced plans to meet with the large mining companies
to discuss their current contracts, and evaluate their influence on
local quality of life. In addition, the minister declared that a
new petroleum code will be adopted before the end of this year.
This new code will grant tax incentives to attract more foreign
investments in the sector, and will address the legal framework of
the bio-energy sector. Generally, his remarks were received by
investors with guarded relief, following blatant (but unsuccessful)
extortion attempts against some of them by others in the HAT.


10. (U) SHIPWRECK LEADS TO POSSIBLE ECOLOGICAL DISASTER: Tissue
samples from four whales found dead on the south coast of Madagascar
were taken for analysis to a French laboratory to explore a possible
link to the recent sinking of the Turkish ship "Gulser Ana" off the
southern tip of Madagascar. Pending the results, the Ministries of
Fishing and Transportation have taken preventive measures, and
issued a ban on fishing in the southern region of the country. As
fishing represents the main source of income for one-third of the
region's population, this prohibition has exacerbated local food
insecurity. The World Food Program has pledged USD 250,000 in
assistance to address this need, but further assistance will likely
be required.


11. (U) SOME SELF-HELP PROJECTS CONTINUE: Special Self-Help
Coordinator visited six project sites in three northern regions of
Madagascar last week, completing final evaluations on four projects
involving clean water, solar energy, latrines, and equipment for a
health clinic. One of the fully-funded projects from this year is
in the process of building a latrine, shower, and a well for a
kindergarten class. Progress on a second project from this year,
which provided for the construction of a well to provide water to a
school, has halted due to the suspension of the SSH program in
Madagascar. The amount of funding disbursed for five of the
projects totals USD 16,000.

MARQUARDT