MADAGASCAR'S OPPOSITION: UNITING AGAINST A COMMON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000659

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR'S OPPOSITION: UNITING AGAINST A COMMON
ENEMY

REF: ANTANANARIVO 654

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF DOVIE HOLLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (C) Summary: The heads of Madagascar's main three
political opposition delegations jointly told the Ambassador
September 14 that they had decided to work together after de
facto transition president "TGV" Rajoelina spurned their
calls for relaunching negotiations three times. They
explained that the three movements had given TGV until
September 20 to relaunch negotiations, which was their first
choice of action for solving the current impasse. If he
refused, they planned to put pressure on him by mobilizing
supporters in the provinces, whom they would then invite to
the capital for a mass demonstration. If all else failed,
they would consider naming a parallel government, but were
concerned about a potential negative reaction of the
international community to that move, which would go against
the spirit of the Maputo agreements. End summary.


2. (C) The heads of Madagascar's main three political
opposition delegations, in a new show of unity, jointly told
the Ambassador September 14 that they had decided to work
together after de facto transition president "TGV" Rajoelina
spurned their calls for relaunching negotiations three times.
The final straw that pushed the alliance of former foes into
being was TGV's refusal to meet with them September 13, even
though he had accepted the meeting in writing on September

10. They were even locked out of meeting in the Senate
building among themselves, purportedly under orders from TGV
himself, and instead had to meet in a local hotel. Following
that final rebuff, the other three movements decided to band
together to pressure TGV, whom they (correctly) allege is not
respecting the agreements they reached in Maputo and is
increasingly losing credibility as a negotiator (reftel).
The three delegation leaders, Emmanuel Rakotovahiny (Zafy's
movement),Ange Andrianarisoa (Ratsiraka's group),and
Fetison Rakoto Andrianirina (Ravalomanana's representative),
are currently making the rounds with members of the
International Contact Group to request their support in
encouraging TGV to return to negotiations and respect the
Maputo agreements, including the release of additional
political prisoners.


3. (C) Andrianarisoa urged the international community to
apply greater sanctions to the illegal transition government
(HAT),and Rakotovahiny expressed concern about the
attendance of a HAT delegation, including foreign minister Ny
Hasina, at the UN General Assembly meetings in New York. The
Ambassador explained that the USG position had not changed --
we continue to encourage a return to negotiations to agree on
a consensual transition government, do not recognize the HAT,
and do not believe that the "new" government announced
unilaterally by the HAT September 8, in which both Rajoelina
and prime minister Monja Roindefo retained their positions,
was consensual.


4. (C) Andrianirina complained that peaceful Ravalomanana
supporters were mistreated by law enforcement during recent
protests, with 12 seriously injured. He said that Senator
Naike Eliane was apprehended on September 12 and detained for
48 hours without access to a lawyer. During that time, she
was beaten, "strangled," and robbed of her jewelry. She is
still being held on charges of destruction of public
property. (The French are displaying an unusually high level
of concern about her case, probably because she is thought to
be a dual national.)


5. (C) Rakotovahiny explained that the three movements had
given TGV until September 20 to relaunch negotiations, which
was their first choice of action for solving the current
impasse. If he refused, they planned to put additional
pressure on him by mobilizing supporters in the provinces,
whom they would then invite to the capital for a mass
demonstration. The press reported on September 15 that Zafy
has already travelled to the main port city in the East,
Tamatave, to mobilize supporters there and that the
opposition leaders had announced the beginning of
demonstrations beginning September 16. If such measures were
insufficient, they would consider naming a parallel

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government, said Rakotovahiny. They consider the four
movements to be on equal footing following the September 9
deadline of the Maputo charter for putting a consensus
government in place, so argue that if TGV can name a
government, they should be able to do so as well.
Andrianarisoa noted that this option was a last resort, as
they had been warned by the international community that
unilateral action, from any side, was unacceptable.


6. (C) Comment: Although the "marriage of convenience"
between Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana supporters is based on
mutual interest rather than shared ideology, the flexibility
shown by these Malagasy politicians in overcoming seven years
of bad blood to work together gives hope that a consensual
solution among the four political rivals is still possible,
even if increasingly unlikely. If the opposition can manage
to garner substantial popular (or military) support, they may
be able to haul TGV back to the negotiating table; if that
fails, they will be forced to rely on any pressure that the
international community can bring to bear. Although the
public sentiment seems to be turning away from Rajoelina, it
is still unclear if the population, mainly (and increasingly)
concerned about daily survival, will be driven to action.
End comment.
MARQUARDT