MADAGASCAR: NEW TRANSITION GOVERNMENT FAR FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000634

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/EPS AND AF/E - MBEYZEROV
TREASURY FOR FBOYE
PARIS FOR WBAIN AND RKANEDA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: NEW TRANSITION GOVERNMENT FAR FROM
CONSENSUAL

REF: A. ANTANANARIVO 633

B. ANTANANARIVO 630

C. ANTANANARIVO 523

Classified By: P/E CHIEF DOVIE HOLLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (C) Summary: High Transitional Authority (HAT) Prime
Minister Roindefo Monja today announced the composition of
Madagascar's "new and consensual" transition government,
confirming suspicions that the majority of positions would
remain safely in the hands of HAT loyalists (para 6). Their
effort to co-opt outsiders from the three other movements
appears largely to have failed, with only three of the 33
nominees immediately identifiable as non-HAT politicians.
This in itself is unlikely to trigger any immediate violent
reaction, although ongoing non-violent protests are gaining
additional participants daily. The other movements now will
proceed with the nomination of a "shadow cabinet" in protest
of the HAT's move. The military has not made any statements
since their recent rejection of opposition calls for them to
take power, and is fractured and thus unlikely to intervene
at this time. The Legalists, who have been rallying
peacefully at Magro since the failure of Maputo II, have
conveyed plans to switch venues towards the more
centrally-located Place de 13 Mai. Clearly things again are
moving in the wrong direction here, but continue to do so in
slow motion. Word from today's SADC Summit, where Chisano
was to make a presentation, is awaited here as the next
signal -- after Saturdays's statement from the local chapter
of the ICG -- of how firmly the international community will
respond to this unfortunate unraveling of the Maputo process.
End summary.

Background: Old PM Ordered to Set up New Government
-------------- --------------

2. (C) During the second round of negotiations in Mozambique
under the auspices of the AU, SADC, the UN, and the OIF,
Madagascar's four main political factions were unable to
reach agreement on the composition of a consensual transition
government to replace the de facto regime installed following
the March 2009 coup. De facto transition leader Rajoelina
requested until September 4 to consult his supporters,
particularly regarding the post of prime minister. Following
failed attempts to negotiate with Rajoelina last week, the
other three political factions (those of former presidents
Ravalomanana, Zafy, and Ratsiraka) called on the military to
appoint the top three positions of president, vice president,
and prime minister, as the civilians could not agree. The
military issued a statement mid-day on September 4 rejecting
that proposal. Later on September 4, Rajoelina gave a
televised speech, announcing that he would maintain his post
and keep current prime minister Roindefo as well. In a
subsequent letter to lead mediator Chissano (ref A),
Rajoelina used the statement by the other movements as a
pretext for retaining his Prime Minister, whom had ordered to
set up a new, "inclusive" transition government, following
the "spirit of the Maputo transition charter" within 72 hours
(ref B).

Opposition Response: Parallel Government?
--------------

3. (C) The three other political movements announced that
they would not participate in the new government, as
Rajoelina hadn't respected the agreements made in Maputo.
The Ravalomanana group issued a press statement saying that
any members of its movement would no longer be considered
members if they joined Rajoelina's government. Zafy called a
meeting of the four movements for this week and asserted that
if Rajoelina failed to participate, the other three movements
would name their own consensus government. The Legalist
protesters at Magro called for a strike beginning Sept 7
(which apparently wasn't observed, given the normal level of
activity in town Sept 7 and 8). Sources have indicated that
they may move their protest from Magro to Place de 13 Mai,
the centrally-located site of Rajoelina's protests earlier
this year.

New Government is Not Consensual
--------------

4. (C) On the afternoon of Sept 8, Monja announced that, in
addition to naming the ministers of the new government, the
transition authorities would also name the vice president and
leaders of various transition institutions as set forth in
the Maputo charter, including the heads of the congress,

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senate-equivalent, and national reconciliation council. The
retention of both the president and prime minister positions
violated the agreements made during the second round of
negotiations in Mozambique, during which Rajoelina was
pressured to cede the prime minister role to Ratsiraka's
group in order to keep his own post. Also, Ravalomanana's
group was given the right to name the head of the congress,
while Zafy's group was due to name the head of the national
reconciliation council. Rajoelina has ignored these
agreements and proceeded to allocate these posts without the
input of these other movements.


5. (C) Rajoelina and Monja remain in place, as do an
additional 18 other officials out of 34 executive-branch
positions. Foreign minister Ny Hasina Andrimanjato was
elevated to the position of vice prime minister, while
retaining the same portfolio. Eleven new ministers were
appointed, as well as two new vice prime ministers (in
addition to Andrimanjato's promotion). Only three of the new
appointments are immediately identifiable as "outsider"
non-HAT appointments (Manorohanta, Andriamiseza, and
Ratovomalala),and none of those were in the inner circle of
their respective affiliations. Monja announced that
Madagascar's Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva
Rajemison Rakotomaharo (who was senate president from
2002-2008 until demoted/betrayed by Ravalomanana, and who
remains well-respected - reftel B) has been appointed vice
president, while former National Assembly President Jacques
Sylla (who openly betrayed Ravalomanana by jumping over to
the Rajoelina camp just before the coup) has been appointed
head of the transition congress. This remains the only
nomination outside the executive at this time, leaving the
presidency of the High Council of the Transition (equivalent
to the former Senate) unnamed, along with heads of the
various other transition bodies forseen in Maputo I. There
were six women appointed to the executive (out of 34
positions total),falling somewhat short of their stated 30
percent target.


6. (C) Following is a complete listing of the proposed
transition administration.

President: Andry RAJOELINA
Vice President of the Transition: Rajemison RAKOTOMAHARO (New)

Prime Minister: Roindefo MONJA
Vice-Prime Minister in Charge of Interior: Cecile MANOROHANTA
(New)
Vice-Prime Minister in charge of Public Health: Alain Djacoba
TEHINDRAZANARIVELO (New)
Vice-Prime Minister in charge of Foreign Affairs: Ny Hasina
ANDRIAMANJATO (New, formerly foreign minister)

State Secretary in Charge of Vocational Training: TOTO
RAHARIMALALA Marie Lydia (New)
Minister of Sports: Virapin RAMAMONJISOA (New)
Minister of Livestock: Jean De Dieu MAHARANTE (New)
Minister of Agriculture: Jaona Mamitiana Jucelyno (New)
Minister of Environment and Forests: Colonel Caliste
RANDRIAMIANDRISOA (New)
Minister of Youth: Serge Harianala RANAIVO (New)
Minister of Budget and Finances: Hery Rajaonary Mampianina
(New)
Minister of Public Works and Meteorology: Eric RAZAFIMANDIMBY
(New)
Minister of Communications: Nathalie RABE (New)
Minister of Fisheries and Halieutical Resources: Alain
ANDRIAMISEZA (New)
Minister of Mines and Hydrocarbons: Mamy RATOVOMALALA (New)
Minister of Armed Forces: Col. Noel RAKOTONANDRASANA
Minister of Justice: Christine RAZANAMAHASOA
Minister of Energy: Rodolphe RAMANANTSOA
Minister of Decentralization and Town Planning: Hajo
ANDRIANAINARIVELO
Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research:
Athanase TONGAVELO
Minister of Transports: Roland RANJATOELINA
Minister of Tourism and Handicrafts: Irene ANDREAS
Minister of Water: Nirhy Lanto ANDRIAMAHAZO
Minister of Population and Social Affairs: Nadine RAMAROSON
Minister of National Education: Julien RAZAFIMANAZATO
Minister of Culture and Patrimony: Gilbert RAHARIZATOVO
Minister of Labor, Civil Service, and Social Law: Noelson
WILLIAM

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Minister of Telecommunication, Post, and New Technology:
Augustin ANDRIAMANANORO
Minister of Commerce: Jean Claude RAKOTONIRINA
Minister of Economy and Industry: Richard FIENENA
Minister of Internal Security: Organes RAKOTOMIHANTARIZAKA
State Secretary in charge of Gendarmerie: General Claude
RAVELOMANANA

President of the Transition Congress: Jacques SYLLA (New)

History Repeats
--------------

7. (C) Comment: In response to Rajoelina's unilateral attempt
to set up an "inclusive" transition regime, the other three
movements are expected to announce a parallel shadow
government of their own. The military has not made any
statements since their recent rejection of opposition calls
for them to take power, and is fractured and thus unlikely to
intervene at this time. The Legalists, who have been
rallying peacefully at Magro since the failure of Maputo II,
have conveyed plans to switch venues towards the more
centrally-located Place de 13 Mai, although any attempt to do
so may quickly be opposed by the security forces that have
effectively contained them, without bloodshed, since April.
Clearly things again are moving in the wrong direction here,
but continue to do so in slow motion. Word from today's SADC
Summit, where Chisano was to make a presentation, is awaited
here as the next sign -- after Saturdays's statement from the
local chapter of the ICG -- of how firmly the international
community will respond to the unfortunate unraveling of the
Maputo process. End comment.
MARQUARDT