DIPLOMATIC EFFORT REVEALS FULL-BLOWN MALAGASY

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000060

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2019
TAGS: MA PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: DIPLOMATIC EFFORT REVEALS FULL-BLOWN MALAGASY
POLITICAL CRISIS

Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT


1. (C) SUMMARY. DIPLOMATS MET ON JANUARY 22 FIRST WITH
ANTANANARIVO MAYOR ANDRY "TGV" RAJOELINA AND IMMEDIATELY
AFTERWARDS WITH THE PRIME MINISTER AND FOREIGN MINISTER TO
SEEK COMMON GROUND THAT MIGHT CALM THE WORSENING POLITICAL
CRISIS IN MADAGASCAR. THE TWO DISCUSSIONS, EACH LASTING
ABOUT TWO HOURS, REVEALED A FAR GREATER DEGREE OF
POLARIZATION AND RISK OF CONFRONTATION THAN HAD BEEN EVIDENT
BEFORE. THE MAYOR, FOR HIS PART, HAS ASSUMED A BROAD,
SELF-APPOINTED, AND UNCOMPROMISING ROLE AS POPULIST LEADER OF
THE NATION'S ENTIRE POPULATION -- WHICH HE CLAIMS IS
OVERWHELMINGLY FED UP WITH RAVALOMANANA'S CORRUPT LEADERSHIP
-- AND HE OPENLY STATED THAT HIS GOAL IS REGIME CHANGE VIA A
TRANSITION GOVERNMENT AND SOME SORT OF REFERENDUM REVEALING
THE TRUE EXTENT OF POPULAR DISCONTENT. TGV SEEMED
UNINTERESTED IN FINDING COMMON GROUND AND MAY HAVE PASSED A
POINT OF NO RETURN IN HIS SOURED RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE
PRESIDENT AND GOVERNMENT. THE TWO MINISTERS, FOR THEIR PARTS,
CLEARLY SEE THE EXTREME DANGERS INVOLVED AS THE MAYOR CALLS
FOR ANOTHER UNAUTHORIZED PUBLIC DEMONSTRATION THIS SATURDAY.
THEY ARE CONVINCED THAT THE MAYOR IS BEING MANIPULATED BY
EX-RATSIRAKA LOYALISTS AND EVEN BY THE EXILED FORMER
PRESIDENT HIMSELF FROM PARIS, AND DO NOT SEE THE MAYOR AS A
TRUSTWORTHY OR LEGITIMATE PARTNER IN A NEGOTIATION THEY CLAIM
TO HAVE BEEN SEEKING, IN VAIN, FOR SOME TIME. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE CURRENT CONFRONTATION BEING EXPLOITED BY
AN UNNAMED, UNSEEN "THIRD COLUMN" WHO MIGHT SPARK VIOLENCE OR
EVEN KILL THE MAYOR IN AN EFFORT TO CREATE 2002-LIKE
CONDITIONS IN THE STREETS OF THE CAPITAL. THE DIPLOMATS WERE
UNITED IN SENDING SOBERING MESSAGES TO BOTH SIDES THAT WE
ALSO SEE THE SITUATION AS EXPLOSIVE, THAT A COMMITMENT TO
NON-VIOLENCE IS KEY, THAT ALL SIDES NEED TO STEP BACK AND
AVOID INADVERTENTLY SPARKING VIOLENCE, AND THAT ANY RESORT TO
EXTRACONSTITUTIONAL ACTIONS WILL BE MET BY PARTNER
GOVERNMENTS WITH CONDEMNATION AND A LIKELY SUSPENSION OF
ASSISTANCE NEEDED BY THE MALAGASY PEOPLE, THE PRESIDENT, FOR
HIS PART, LEFT TODAY FOR SOUTH AFRICA (FOR AN EXTRAORDINARY
SADC SUMMIT ON ZIMBABWE NOT TO BE HELD UNTIL MONDAY),THUS
DELIBERATELY ABSENTING HIMSELF FROM MADAGASCAR FOR THIS
COMING WEEKEND. HE APPEARS TO BE WILLING TO RECEIVE
AMBASSADORS IMMEDIATELY AFTER HIS RETURN TO HEAR OUR THOUGHTS
AND DISCUSS POSSIBLE CALMING MEASURES. HOWEVER, THE
SITUATION COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED BY THEN. WE AND
THE FRENCH, AND PERHAPS OTHERS, ARE ISSUING UPDATED WARDEN
MESSAGES IN VIEW OF THE ABOVE. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) I JOINED MY EU, GERMAN, UNDP AND NORWEGIAN
COUNTERPARTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN A TWO-HOUR MEETING AT THE
EU RESIDENCE WITH 'TANA MAYOR TGV. (NOTE: FRANCE AND SOUTH
ARICA WERE ALSO ASSOCATED WITH AND AWARE OF THIS INITIATIVE
BUT UNABLE TO ATTEND. END NOTE.) THIS FOLLOWED A SUGGESTION
FROM FORMER PRIME MINISTER AND CURRENT NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
PRESIDENT JACQUES SYLLA THAT AN OUTSIDE EFFORT FROM RESIDENT
DIPLOMATS TOWARD BOTH TGV AND THE GOVENMENT WOULD BE WELCOME
AND PERHAPS EFFECTIVE IN CALMING DOWN A DANGEROUSLY
ESCALATING POLITICAL SITUATION HERE. SYLLA CONFIRMED THIS
VIEW IN A TETE-A-TETE WITH ME ON THURSDAY MORNING, DURING
WHICH HE STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE IN MALAGASY CULTURE OF
MAINTAINING OPEN DIALOGUE AND RESPECTFUL RELATIONS -- BOTH
SEVERELY FRAYED AFTER WEEKS OF HARDENING PUBLIC RHETORIC
BETWEEN THE MAYOR'S CAMP AND THE GOVERNMENT. TGV CAME TO THE
MEETING ALONE AND LAUNCHED THE DISCUSSION WITH A LENGTHY
CATALOGUE OF GRIEVANCES AGAINST THE PRESIDENT AND THE
GOVERNMENT, ALLEGATIONS OF CORRUPTION, RECITATIONS OF WRONGS
AGAINST HIM IN HIS ROLE AS MAYOR, AND CLAIMS THAT HE IS NOW
THE UNDISPUTED LEADER OF BOTH THE OPPOSITION AND THE
DISAFFECTED MAJORITY OF THE MALAGASY POPULATION WHO HAVE HAD
IT WITH RAVALOMANANA. MANY OF HIS COMPLAINTS HAVE SOME BASIS
IN FACT, ALTHOUGH IT IS ENTIRELY UNCLEAR HOW MANY MALAGASY
ARE SUFFICIENTLY UNHAPPY AS TO WISH A RETURN TO A 2002-STYLE
PUBLIC CONFRONTATION OR REALLY WANT OR EXPECT IMMEDIATE
REGIME CHANGE.


3. (C) TGV CLAIMED, HOWEVER, THAT THE MAJORITY WANT
RAVALOMANANA OUT NOW, AND DEFINED AS HIS OBJECTIVE IMMEDIATE
REGIME CHANGE VIA A TRANSITION GOVERNMENT THAT WOULD COME TO
POWER THROUGH SOME UNDEFINED POPULAR REFERENDUM AGAINST
RAVALOMANANA'S RULE. ASKED WHETHER HE THOUGHT THE PRESIDENT
WOULD GO ALONG WITH SUCH A PLAN, TGV ADMITTED THAT HE WOULD
NOT. WE DIPLOMATS THEN TOOK TURNS EXPLAINING THE
UNACCEPTABLE NATURE OF EXTRACONSTITUTIONAL ACTIONS AND THE
LIKELY NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES IF THEY FOLLOW, USING RECENT
EVENTS IN GUINEA AND MAURITANIA AS EXAMPLES. TGV WAS UNMOVED
AND ONLY RATCHETED UP HIS POPULIST RHETORIC ABOUT THE
SUFFERING OF THE MALAGASY PEOPLE AND REITERATING HIS
OVER-REACHING DEMANDS THAT CERTAIN MINISTERS BE FIRED, THAT

THE PRESIDENT SELL HIS RECENTLY-ACQUIRED PRESIDENTIAL
AIRCRAFT, ETC. I ASKED HIM DIRECTLY WHETHER HE HAS REACHED A
POINT OF NO RETURN IN HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE PRESIDENT AND
WHETHER HE IS STILL OPEN TO DIALOGUE WITH HIM; HIS ANSWER WAS
EQUIVOCAL. IN RESPONSE TO HIS ASSERTION THAT HE IS "IN
PERFECT CONTROL" OF THE OPPOSITION AND OF MASS EVENTS LIKE
HIS NEXT PLANNED PUBLIC DEMONSTRATION ON SATURDAY AT
AMBOHIJATOVA PARK, WE CAUTIONED THAT UNSEEN FORCES NEITHER ON
HIS SIDE NOR THE PRESIDENT'S COULD EASILY TRY TO EXPLOIT THE
SITUATION FOR THEIR OWN GAIN, INCLUDING EVEN BY TRYING TO
KILL THE MAYOR AND PINNING BLAME FOR THE ACT ON THE
GOVERNMENT; THAT TOO HAD NO VISIBLE IMPACT ON HIS DEMEANOR.
IN PARTING, WE ASSURED HIM THAT WE WOULD ALSO BE TALKING
STRAIGHT WITH THE PRESIDENT AND GOVERNMENT AND ENCOURAGING
THEM TO LOOK FOR GESTURES AND ACTIONS THAT WOULD HELP
RE-ESTABLISH DIALOGUE AND COMMUNICATION. WE SAID THAT WE
WOULD EXPECT HIM TO WELCOME AND RESPOND POSIITIVELY TO ANY
SUCH ACTIONS, IF THEY COME. HE CLOSED BY REASSURING US OF
HIS OPENNESS TO DIALOGUE AND HIS COMMITMENT TO NON-VIOLENT
CHANGE. WE WERE, HOWEVER, NOT THE LEAST BIT REASSURED BY HIS
OVERSALL PRESENTATION. FINALLY, TGV ASSURED US THAT "I AM
NOT BEING MANIPULATED BY ANYONE; EVERYTHING I AM DOING IS
ENTIRELY MY OWN IDEA AND OF MY OWN WILL."


4. (C) IMMEDIATELY THEREAFTER WE MET (WITHOUT THE GERMAN
AMBASSADOR) FOR TWO HOURS WITH THE PRIME MINISTER AND FOREIGN
MINISTER, THE MEETING BEING THE GOVERNMENT'S RESPONSE TO OUR
URGENT REQUEST TO SEE THE PRESIDENT BEFORE SATURDAY'S
DEMONSTRATION. THE PRIME MINISTER EXPLAINED THAT THE
PRESIDENT WAS LEAVING FRIDAY MORNING FOR A SADC SUMMIT IN
SOUTH AFRICA AND DID NOT HAVE TIME TO RECEIVE US BEFORE THEN,
BUT WOULD PROBABLY DO SO UPON HIS RETURN ON MONDAY. BOTH
RETIRED GENERALS AND THUS VERY FAMILIAR WITH SECURITY ISSUES,
THE TWO MINISTERS WRUNG THEIR HANDS ABOUT THE SECURITY
DILEMMA THEY FACE ON SATURDAY: EITHER THEY RESPOND WITH
FORCE AND RISK A CONFRONTATION, OR SIT BACK AND RISK ALLOWING
DISORDER TO ESCALATE WHICH THEY WOULD THEN BE IN NO POSITION
TO CONTROL. THE PRIME MINISTER SAID SEVERAL TIMES THAT THEY
HAVE NOT YET DECIDED WHAT TO DO, AND HIMSELF RAISED THE
SCENARIO IN WHICH THE MAYOR COULD BE ASSASSINATED BY A "THIRD
COLUMN" AND THE BLAME STUCK ON THE GOVERNMENT. THE PRIME
MINISTER NOTED THAT "WE MALAGASY DO THIS IN A CYCLICAL
FASHION, BUILDING UP OUR COUNTRY AND THEN DESTROYING
EVERYTHING WE HAVE ACCOMPLISHED THROUGH SUCH ACTIONS." THE
TWO MINISTERS LAMENTED THE "HATE-SPEAK" NOW ON THE LOCAL
AIRWAVES AND IN THE PRESS, EQUATING IT TO RWANDA IN 1994 AND
MULLING OVER THEIR UNPLEASANT OPTIONS IN TERMS OF POSSIBLE
RESPONSES TO IT. FOREIGN MINISTER RANJEVA ON SEVERAL
OCCASIONS DISPAIRED OF THEIR MANY FAILED EFFORTS -- INCLUDING
THROUGH TGV'S MOTHER -- TO REACH OUT AND CREATE EFFECTIVE
LINES OF COMMUNICATION TO HIM THAT WOULD CIRCUMVENT THE
CIRCLE AROUND HIM. HE AND THE PRIME MINISTER BOTH SAID THEY
HAVE INTELLIGENCE LINKING TGV'S ACTIONS TO EXILED FORMER
PRESIDENT RATSIRAKA IN PARIS, AND THAT THEY HAVE CONCLUDED
THAT TGV IS BEING ENTIRELY MANIPULATED AND IS THUS NOT A
TRUSTWORTHY NEGOTIATING PARTNER AS THEY SEEK TO DEFUSE THE
SITUATION. WHO CAN WE NEGOTIATE WITH, THEY ASKED
RHETORICALLY?


5. (C) THE EU AMBASSADOR LAID OUT A NUMBER OF PRINCIPLES
SHARED BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, INCLUDING THE NEED FOR
DIALOGUE, THE IMPORTANCE OF AVOIDING VIOLENCE, AND THE NEED
FOR BOTH SIDES TO SHOW RESPECT FOR THE INDIVIDUALS AND THE
ELECTED OFFICES ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE -- AND THE CONSEQUENCES
FOR MADAGASCAR AND ITS DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS IF THE SITUATION
CANNOT BE RIGHTED. WE EXPRESSED A PREFERENCE FOR DEPLOYING
MINIMUM FORCE TO CONTROL SATURDAY'S EVENT, NOTING THAT THIS
APPROACH HAD WORKED WELL AT LAST SATURDAY'S NON-VIOLENT
DEMONSTRATION. THE PRIME MINISTER SAID THAT "THE SITUATION
THIS WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT THAN LAST WEEKEND, AND I
DO NOT KNOW IF WE CAN RISK TAKING THE SAME APPROACH." I
ASKED WHETHER THE RE-OPENING OF THE CLOSED TV STATION MIGHT
NOT BE AN APPROPRIATE GESTURE TO RE-ESTABLISH TRUST AND
DIALOGUE, TO GIVE THE GOM BACK SOME OF THE MORAL HIGH GROUND,
AND ALSO TO MOVE AWAY FROM RESTRICTIONS ON PRESS FREEDOM
WHICH ARE PROBLEMATIC IN OTHER RESPECTS. THE PRIME MINISTER
ASKED IN RESPONSE WHAT "GUARANTEE" WE COULD OFFER OF SUCCESS
IF THEY DO THAT (NONE, OF COURSE). THE FOREIGN MINISTER
POINTED OUT THAT THERE IS A LEGAL PROCEDURE BY WHICH THE
MAYOR COULD REQUEST THE RE-OPENING OF THE TV STATION, AND
THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A LEGAL, FACE-SAVING DENOUEMENT;
HOWEVER, HE NOTED THAT TGV HAS CHOSEN NOT TO PURSUE THIS
AVENUE, AND OPINED THAT THIS IS PROOF THAT HE IS NOT SERIOUS.
THE PRIME MINISTER SUMMARIZED: "THE PROBLEMS ARE ELSEWHERE,
WE KNOW THAT THEY WANT A COUP D'ETAT. RE-OPENING THE STATION
WILL SOLVE NOTHING, BUT WE ARE OPEN TO DOING IT IF IT WOULD
HELP. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THEY WILL RESPOND IF WE EXTEND

OUR HAND. IN FACT, THE PRESIDENT DID EXTEND HIS HAND AND SO
FAR HAS GOTTEN NO REPLY." NONETHELESS, HE AGREED THAT TRYING
TO ENGINEER SOME SORT OF PEACE-MAKING MEETING BETWEEN THE
MAYOR AND PRESIDENT UPON THE LATTER'S RETURN HELD THE MOST
PROMISE FOR CALMING THESE ROILED WATERS -- BUT ITSELF WOULD
NOT BE EASY TO BRING ABOUT. RANJEVA ENDED THE DISCUSSION
WITH A QUASI-PROMISE THAT WE WILL ALL MEET WITH THE PRESIDENT
ON MONDAY NIGHT AFTER HIS RETURN. BOTH HE AND THE PRIME
MINISTER PRAISED THIS DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVE FROM "TRUE
FRIENDS OF MADAGASCAR."


6. (C) I MET ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRENCH CHARGE TO
BRIEF HER ON THESE MEETINGS (WHICH SHE HAD BEEN UNABLE TO
ATTEND DUE TO A SENIOR VISITING "FRANCOPHONIE" DELEGATION
FROM THE ELYSEE). SHE SAID THAT SHE ALSO HAS PASSED
IDENTICAL AND EQUALLY URGENT MESSAGES TO BOTH SIDES BUT HAS
CONCLUDED THAT THE PROBLEM HAS BECOME THE "OUT-OF-CONTROL
MAYOR". SHE HAS WARNED HIM THAT FRANCE ALSO WOULD HAVE TO
SIDE WITH THE DULY ELECTED PRESIDENT OF MADAGASCAR IF ANY
EXTRA-LEGAL ACTIONS ARE UNDERTAKEN TO UNSEAT HIM. SHE
EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT THE SAFETY OF THE LARGE FRENCH
EXPATRIATE COMMUNITY IN MADAGASCAR AND CONFIRMED THAT THEY
ARE ISSUING ANOTHER WARDEN MESSAGE TODAY (AS WE ARE) WARNING
FRENCH CITIZENS OF "ESCALATING DANGER AND HIGH RISK" DOWNTOWN
ON SATURDAY AND PERHAPS BEYOND. SHE NOTED THAT THE ELYSEE
HELD A CRISIS MEETING ON THIS SITUATION THURSDAY, BUT SAID
THAT SHE DID NOT YET HAVE ANY READOUT ON ITS RESULTS. WE HAVE
NO CHOICES, SHE SAID, BUT TO HUNKER DOWN AND KEEP A LOW
PROFILE (READ: THE FRENCH COMMUNITY IS SO LARGE HERE THAT NO
EVACUATION IS FEASIBLE). SHE GUESSED THAT THE GOM WOULD OPT
FOR A LOWER-PROFILE SECURITY PRESENCE ON SATURDAY, WHICH SHE
AGREED WOULD BE A GOOD THING. NOT SO GOOD, SHE SAID, WAS THE
PRESIDENT'S DELIBERATE DECISION TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY TODAY
(FOR A SUMMIT MEETING THAT DOES NOT START UNTIL MONDAY) AND
THUS TO BE ABSENT FROM MADAGASCAR FOR TOMORROW'S
DEMONSTRATION. HER ANALYSIS WAS THAT RAVALOMANANA WANTS TO
DISTANCE HIMSELF FROM WHAT COULD POSSIBLY BECOME A VIOLENT
DEMONSTRATION, OR EVEN A COUP ATTEMPT, AND THUS AVOID
RESPONSIBILITY AND BLAME FOR WHATEVER HAPPENS (WHILE ALSO
ASSURING HIS OWN PHYSICAL SAFETY). COMPARING NOTES, IT WAS
CLEAR THAT RAVALOMANANA HAD CONVENED A MEETING THIS MORNING
BEFORE HIS DEPARTURE OF SENIOR SECURITY OFFICIALS -- AT WHICH
HE UNDOUBTEDLY GAVE SOME INSTRUCTIONS.


7. (C) COMMENT: THERE IS NO LONGER MUCH QUESTION HERE THAT
THE LONG-SIMMERING DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MAYOR AND PRESIDENT
HAS NOW BECOME A FULL-BLOWN POLITICAL CRISIS, EVEN AS -- IN
PECULIAR MALAGASY STYLE -- NO SHOT HAS BEEN FIRED OR ANY
PERSON INJURED OR JAILED (YET). WITH REGIME CHANGE NOW THE
MAYOR'S STATED GOAL, THE GOM WILL BE TEMPTED TO TREAT THIS AS
NOTHING LESS THAN AN ILLEGAL COUP ATTEMPT, AND NO DOUBT IS
MULLING OVER A RANGE OF RESPONSES INCLUDING SOME HIGHLY
FORCEFUL ONES. ALL EYES ARE NOW ON SATURDAY'S DEMONSTRATION:
IF IT MANAGES TO PASS PEACEFULLY AND/OR FAILS TO DRAW A
SUFFICIENTLY IMPRESSIVE CROWD, TENSIONS MAY START TO FALL AS
WEARY MALAGASY RETURN TO THEIR DAILY LIVES AND/OR TGV STARTS
TO REALIZE THAT HIS SUPPORT IS WEAKER THAN HE THOUGHT.
HOWEVER, WE AND OTHERS REMAIN QUITE NERVOUS ABOUT THE
ALTERNATIVE -- A VIOLENT SPARK THAT COULD THEN START BURNING
OUT OF CONTROL.
MARQUARDT