MAYOR AND PRESIDENT HOLD THEIR POSITIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000059

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV MA
SUBJECT: MAYOR AND PRESIDENT HOLD THEIR POSITIONS

REF: A. 08 ANTANANARIVO 849

B. 09 ANTANANARIVO 09

C. 09 ANTANANARIVO 17

D. 09 ANTANANARIVO 40

E. 08 ANTANANARIVO 879

F. 08 ANTANANARIVO 852

Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Another week, another ultimatum: the
conflict between Mayor of Antananarivo Andry "TGV" Rajoelina
and President Marc Ravalomanana (see reftels A-D) continues
unabated, with neither side inclined to retreat. A large
demonstration on January 17, marking the one-month
anniversary of Rajoelina's declaration on media freedom and
human rights, brought out a peaceful but enthusiastic crowd.
The following days, however, saw an escalation in the battle
of words, further reducing the two sides' ability to
eventually reach a compromise. At week's end, Rajoelina has
another demonstration planned, Ravalomanana remains
dismissive of the movement, and the diplomatic community has
taken its first steps to intervene in the crisis. END SUMMARY.

ANOTHER WEEK GOES BY


2. (C) January 17 saw the largest opposition rally yet,
attracting a peaceful but excited crowd of over 10,000 people
for the inauguration of Antananarivo's new "Democracy
Square". While Rajoelina didn't cover any new ground in his
discourse, the outpouring of enthusiasm cemented his
leadership role, and clarified for the government the extent
of his appeal. (The clear reference point is 2002, when far
larger crowds rallied in support of Ravalomanana and
eventually sent Ratsiraka into exile. While TVG clearly
thinks he has the same dynamic behind him now, others see his
ability to draw a crowd as puny in comparison.)


3. (C) Miscalculating the government's concern, the Mayor's
"VIVA TV" station began broadcasting on Sunday despite the
month-old suspension of their license; by nightfall, their
license had been formally revoked, broadcasting equipment
confiscated, and opposition supporters called to VIVA's
headquarters to "protect" the facility. A crowd of a few
hundred formed outside the station, but no government forces
showed up. Capitalizing on the event, Rajoelina then made a
public announcement reaffirming his previous appeal for media
freedom and democracy, and calling for the resignation of
Ministers Haja Razafinjatovo (Finance and Budget) and Marius
Ratolojanahary (Town Planning and Land Reform) for their
respective roles in the purchase of a new presidential jet
(reftel E) and an alleged plan to "give" large tracts of
Malagasy farmland to Daewoo (reftel F). He set a deadline of
January 21, which came and went without their resignation;
Razafinjatovo stated that he "consider(s) the airplane an
investment", while Ratolojanahary simply commented that "it's
up to the president" -- who made it clear to the press
earlier in the week that he had no intention of dismissing
his ministers.


4. (C) In a repeat of the events of December 19 (reftel A),
rumors surfaced on January 20 that a new arrest warrant had
been issued for Rajoelina, with contacts in the media certain
that he had gone into hiding, supporters rushing to his house
to "defend" him, and contacts in the police and gendarme
reporting both that the warrant had been drafted and,
separately, that they had no intention of arresting the
Mayor. The mayor was not arrested, although rumors continue
to circulate, apparently hinging on his attendance at a
planned rally during the coming weekend.

RAVALOMANANA OPEN TO COMPROMISE...BY THE MAYOR


5. (C) President Ravalomanana continued his studious attempt
to remain above the fray, belittle the opposition's concerns,
and focus attention away from the dispute. With extensive
cyclone damage on the west coast, two summits next week (SADC
in South Africa and AU in Ethiopia),and an incessant
schedule of visits around the capital and country in recent
weeks, the president has taken great care to demonstrate his
reach, preferring to address the Mayor via indirect
commentary. Throughout the week, he has continued this
pattern, stating that "no one will be arrested as long as the
law is respected", while maintaining that "demonstrating in
the street is not democracy". He has publicly expressed a
preference for dialogue, but he has been equally clear that
he has no intention of caving in to the demands of a small
minority.

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PRESIDENT'S FOLLOWERS LESS DIPLOMATIC


6. (C) In typical TIM (the president's dominant political
party) party fashion, a new talking point is making the
rounds in the media: the Mayor has violated Malagasy
tradition with his public demonstrations and demands, and
even if both sides of the conflict have made some mistakes,
it is incumbent upon the younger antagonist to back down to
the elder statesman. Senator Tavonanahary Rabetsitonta (TIM,
appointed) stated in an interview on Radio Don Bosco that "a
retreat (by Rajoelina) isn't necessarily a defeat" but rather
"one of wisdom", without suggesting that the same might be
true for Ravalomanana. President of the National Assembly
Jacques Sylla (also TIM) told the Ambassador of his fears
that the mayor was originally just focused on doing a good
job for Antananarivo, but had changed over the course of his
term. Based on the influence of both new political forces
and older "dinosaurs" (including exiled former President
Ratsiraka),the mayor's current actions appear to be aimed at
a large confrontation and possibly regime change. Per Sylla,
"the mayor has not respected Malagasy values in his public
display of disrespect for the President", and should thus be
the first to make a move for reconciliation.


7. (C) The president's public facade of patience may be
running out: at 0500 on January 22, the home of Deputy Mayor
Nirhy Lanto Andriamahazo was ransacked by police, citing
national security, although nothing was taken, and no arrests
were made. Prime Minster Charles Rabemananjara made clear
his disdain for the deadlines, questioning publicly "why an
ordinary person who claims to be a victim of the abuse of
power sets a deadline", and an editorial in the Madagascar
Tribune opined that "Rajoelina has put himself in a cul de
sac, on a one-way street".

MAYOR PRESSES ON


8. (C) Following up on his promise of "serious measures" if
the government continues to ignore his demands, the Mayor's
office has released information about a suspect deal between
the president's MBS media group and the city government at a
time when Ravalomanana was himself mayor. Under the deal,
MBS obtained a contract to rent land from the city in
Anosipatrana for MGA 800 (USD 0.40 now) per square meter for
50 years. Rajoelina has given MBS formal notice of his
intention to renegotiate the contract; MBS argues that the
contract is legitimate, and promises a legal battle.
Rajoelina reportedly has more such information from an audit
conducted at the beginning of his term, and may continue to
release it as the feud continues.


9. (C) Rajoelina has called for another rally on Saturday,
January 24 on Democracy Square, although he has not yet
released specifics or given notice to the government. In
several provincial cities, including Fianarantsoa and
Taomasina, opposition leaders have expressed their ongoing
support for the Mayor, and press reports indicate that
opposition groups have formed "crisis cells" in cities around
the country, ready to hold demonstrations of their own in
support of their Antananarivo counterparts.

INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY STEPS IN


10. (C) Although the diplomatic community had hitherto been
relatively silent, a group of Chiefs of Mission recently
sought meetings with both parties to the conflict (septel).
Fearing that a confrontation this weekend could turn violent,
President of the National Assembly Jacques Sylla had
contacted foreign missions with the suggestion that they push
for both sides to obey the constitution and seek dialogue.
To date, both sides have on occasion suggested they have the
backing of the international community, with Ravalomanana
specifically claiming the support of the U.S. and France, and
Rajoelina in December insinuating that members of the
diplomatic corps were assisting him. Separately, the World
Bank recently informed the president that Robert Zoellick did
not intend to come on a planned visit until the current
dispute is resolved; while this doesn't appear to have
influenced the president this week, the message from abroad
is clear: neither side can count on international support if
they don't seek a peaceful resolution.

FEW WAYS OUT


11. (C) COMMENT: If last weekend's events are any indication,
the mayor can count on a large turnout on Saturday, but he

ANTANANARI 00000059 003 OF 003


can be equally sure that Ravalomanana will respond, perhaps
with more than the incremental measures seen thus far. It is
becoming increasingly apparent to supporters on both sides
that dialogue is needed, but neither leader looks set to
compromise.
MARQUARDT