POLITICAL DIALOGUE MOVES TO MAPUTO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000586

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV MA MZ
SUBJECT: POLITICAL DIALOGUE MOVES TO MAPUTO

REF: A. 09 ANTANANARIVO 564

B. 09 ANTANANARIVO 570

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Classified By: POLOFF JEFFREY HULSE FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: Madagascar's "Big Four" political leaders are
entering their second day of talks in Maputo, Mozambique
(reftel B),under the tutelage of former Mozambican President
Joaquim Chissano. After a "satisfying" (but ceremonial)
first encounter on the evening of August 5, the leaders were
tasked today with outlining their individual visions of a
political solution, in hopes of finding common ground by
Sunday at the latest. Civil society groups have
characterized this as a high-stakes last-ditch effort to save
the country, while former President Marc Ravalomanana's
supporters in particular have been clear that the Big Four
will be judged either "patriots, or enemies of the nation" on
the results of these talks. The military leadership has
already declared that Ravalomanana cannot return to power,
and that the transition government will not recognize any
solution "imposed" on HAT President Andry Rajoelina during
the talks. HAT Prime Minister Roindefo Monja has also stated
that he'll remain in his position, regardless of what's
decided in Maputo, further narrowing Rajoelina's room for
maneuver. It is unlikely that the four parties will actually
reach a comprehensive agreement at this juncture, but the
fact that they have all shown up, and are engaging in talks
at all, is a step in the right direction. END SUMMARY.

HIGH EXPECTATIONS IN MAPUTO
--------------

2. (C) The four groups arrived in Mozambique on August 5, and
the leaders had an introductory two-hour meeting that evening
behind closed doors. This is the first time the Big Four
have met at the same time, due to former President Didier
Ratsiraka's ongoing residence in France, and Ravalomanana's
current exile in South Africa. All four made public
statements before the meeting expressing optimism about the
proceedings, although Rajoelina and Ravalomanana were already
making not-so-subtle references to what will likely be key
sticking points: Ravalomanana expressed his opinion that he
remains the legitimate president of Madagascar, while
Rajoelina made clear that the fundamental legality of his
transition government was not up for debate. Albert Zafy
remains focused on the need for "national reconciliation",
whatever else they decide on; Ratsiraka's spokesperson
limited himself to optimism about the meeting, without laying
out any priorities.


3. (C) Those left behind in Madagascar are not idly waiting
for word from Maputo, and are doing their best to frame the
conversation from afar. On August 3, a group of 12 civil
society organizations held a press conference to insist that
the four leaders sign an inclusive agreement to "manage the
transition in a consensual manner", and threatened
unspecified "measures" in case of failure. (NOTE: This is a
toothless threat, but their show of unity is a rare moment of
collaboration for the civil society sector. END NOTE) Adding
to fears of unrest within the HAT, the Minister of Defense
and the leadership of the Army, National Police, and
Gendarmerie stirred the pot on August 4 by declaring
categorically that Ravalomanana cannot return to power, and
that the transition government will not be obliged to
recognize any solution imposed on Rajoelina during the talks
that "does not conform with the superior interests of the
nation". Likewise, PM Monja stated in an interview on August
4 that he would remain in his job, "whatever is decided in
Maputo". The delegates have been tight-lipped going into day
two of talks, with Ravalomanana continuing to express
optimism but deferring to the mediators for public
commentary. Chissano stated to the press that the
delegations today would outline their positions in detail
during today's meetings, scheduled to begin at 10am local
time.

SHOWING UP IS HALF THE BATTLE
--------------

4. (C) COMMENT: While civil society and media outlets are
painting this as a last-ditch effort, it is unlikely that the
four parties will actually reach the comprehensive agreement
they seek - but they may be able to take a few important
steps forward. Ravalomanana will be seeking a deal on
amnesty and his right to return, and a role for himself or
his delegates in the transition government. Rajoelina will
attempt to retain the status quo to the greatest extent
possible, knowing that his PM and military will be loath to
accept compromise. If these two can bridge that gap and

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reach some sort of agreement, Ratsiraka and Zafy will likely
be unable to block it, allowing the discussion to progress
beyond amnesty deals towards the far more important issues of
governance during the transition, organization of elections,
and finding a way to stop the continuing abuses of human
rights perpetrated by an increasingly fragmented transition
government. END COMMENT.
STROMAYER