MADAGASCAR: POLITICAL POSTURING CONTINUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000564

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: POLITICAL POSTURING CONTINUES

Classified By: P/E CHIEF DOVIE HOLLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (C) Summary: The international mediators have returned to
Madagascar to arrange a meeting of the four Malagasy
political rivals to take place in Mozambique August 5.
Meanwhile, other political actors and civil society members
are seeking the support of the international community to
broaden the talks to include over one hundred politicians who
would sign a convention following a three-day summit.
Transition leader Andry "TGV" Rajoelina has come out in
support of this idea, while exiled President Ravalomanana's
team is opposed. A solution is urgent, as the transition
regime is becoming increasingly splintered at the top,
according to a TGV adviser, and civil rights violations
continue. End summary.

Mozambique: To Go or Not to Go?
--------------

2. (C) As the SADC, AU, UN, and OIF envoys return to the
scene this week, led by SADC mediator, and former Mozambique
president, Chissano, the Malagasy political posturing on all
sides, and transition leader Andry "TGV" Rajoelina's
waffling, continue. During last week's international contact
group meeting in Addis, Chissano announced that all four
political rivals (Rajoelina, ousted President Ravalomanana,
former President Ratsiraka, and former President Zafy) had
agreed to meet in Mozambique to discuss the questions of
amnesty and the partition of positions in the transition
government. However, Rajoelina reportedly told the press
three days later on July 25 that he did not intend to
continue negotiating, as the transition regime was already
installed. He, nevertheless, confirmed his intention of
going to Mozambique to EU Ambassador Boidin and other
diplomats on July 28. The international contact group will
meet July 30 to receive an update from the mediators.

Meanwhile Others Seek Their Own Consensus
--------------

3. (C) Meanwhile, civil society has joined with
representatives of the Zafy delegation, the HAT, and swing
members of the Legalists (affiliated with Ravalomanana and
his party TIM) to seek an alternative solution. This
approach would open up the discussions to 120 political
leaders, rather than the approximately 28 currently involved,
who would come together for a three day summit with the goal
of adopting a transition convention (already drafted).
Legalist leader Alain Andriamiseza told Emboff July 16 that
he had secured the support of Zafy, presidential hopeful
Pierrot (breakaway leader of Ratsiraka's party AREMA),and
some members of the HAT, and showed Emboff several pages of
signatures of Zafy and Pierrot supporters. Ratsiraka refused
to participate if Pierrot was involved. Alain claimed that
he had also raised the proposition with hard-core
Ravalomanana supporters, including the recently arrested
bombing suspect and TIM spokesman Raharinaivo, who "was not
against the idea." However, TIM delegation leader Fetison
publicly stated that he was opposed July 28, following TGV's
endorsement of a similar idea. Ravalomanana's Prime Minister
Manandafy's (currently still under house arrest and scheduled
to go to trial August 4) MFM party leaders told the
Ambassador in a separate meeting July 16 that they were
opposed to this effort, as it was a distraction that shifted
the focus away from the necessary meeting of the four
principles. Emboff encourage Alain to seek to bring
Ravalomanana and the rest of the TIM delegation on board and
to coordinate his efforts with the UN/AU/SADC/OIF, who are
mediating the negotiations between the four political leaders
that will hopefully be convened next week in Mozambique.


4. (C) Pierrot told the Ambassador July 21 that he supported
the idea of the summit, and asserted that within the HAT,
Jean Lahiniriko (second place presidential candidate in 2006
with 11 percent of the vote),Marson Evarist, and Roland
Ratsiraka (the former president's nephew who definitely has
his eye on the presidential ball) were in agreement.
According to Pierrot, they are willing to dump Monja
Roindefo, current HAT prime minister, in favor of a consensus
candidate, contrary to Alain's proposal that Monja be
maintained. The transition charter proposed the
establishment of the usual panoply of institutions, including
a national reconciliation council, a transition congress, a
unity cabinet, a high transition court, and an independent

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electoral commission. Pierrot said they had requested a
meeting with TGV to present their approach. Civil society
leaders Aristide Velompanahy, Jose Rakotomavo, and Andre
Rasolo (all former ministers themselves) pitched the summit
idea to the diplomatic corps, including the Charge
d'Affaires, convened July 28 by the dip corps dean, and
requested that the international community fund the USD
33,000 summit to ensure that it would be viewed as a neutral
forum. Tbey claimed that the HAT was on board and would fund
it but they felt such support would condemn the effort to
failure as being unilateral. No one committed to providing
funds, however, during this meeting and participants urged
the civil society leaders to raise the idea with the
mediators.


5. (C) Jean Marcel Miandrisoa, a member of the Zafy
delegation, urged the Charge July 27 to pressure the four
leaders to sign a charter. As a draft charter, with separate
amnesty bill, were already prepared, it was just a matter of
pressuring the four leaders to actually sign. (Note: there
are several draft charter versions floating around and there
is certainly not agreement on all the details. End note.)
His proposal, similar to the one described above, was to
convene a three-day meeting of 360 representatives from
various political, ethnic, civil society, and military groups
who could essentially shame the four into signing. (Comment:
Miandrisoa's amnesty provisions, which couldn't be adopted
until a legislature were in place, are unlikely to appease
either Ravalomanana, who would likely end up in jail once his
"crimes were established" or Ratsiraka. End comment.)
Miandrisoa explained that TGV had called a meeting with Zafy
July 21 to discuss the division of positions and signing a
charter, but then balked at Zafy's amnesty proposal.
Miandrisoa feared that TGV, who had neglected earlier
promises to include Zafy's supporters in the transition, was
just biding time and stringing them along. He claimed that
Zafy had recently traveled to the northern coastal areas to
calm his constituents, who did not feel represented by the
ethnically Merina Rajoelina, and urgently wanted a consensual
transition. He also stressed the importance of conducting a
thorough census and voter registration drive prior to
elections, as only about 70 percent of adults were currently
registered to vote, and the Merina were disproportionately
represented.

While HAT Splinters
--------------

6. (C) Zaza Ramandimbiarison, TGV's chief of staff,
requested to see the Ambassador July 21 to say that he is
also working behind the scenes to push the four protagonists
towards consensual elections. He stressed the urgency of
this solution, as "things are awful and getting worse, there
is no one flying the plane." He referred to rivalries within
the HAT and to insubordination vis-Q-vis TGV himself. Many
are trying to make TGV fail by "sliding banana peels under
his feet." (Many contacts have pointed to evidence of a
large and growing rift between Rajoelina and his PM Monja,
who is said to have the backing of the military mutineers.
End note.) Zaza himself is close to resigning but is staying
on, he said, to try to get the negotiations and consensus
back on track. He thinks TGV is listening to him but is not
sure. He claimed that Ravalomanana/TIM spokesman Raharinaivo
traveled to South Africa to pitch Zaza's idea to the exiled
president, and that others were already on board so agreement
was near. TGV told the press July 28 that the HAT hoped to
enlarge negotiations to include other participants from
political parties, civil society, and economic operators to
adopt an "inclusive and consensual" trasition charter.

And Human Rights Abuses Continue
--------------

7. (C) Manandafy's lawyer, Me Noro Rabemananjara's, house was
searched July 27 and her computer seized, reportedly by
gendarmes who did not follow the proper procedures. The bar
association has organized a sit-in in protest. Four out of
the five "bombing suspects" named by the HAT July 20 (only
one day after the failed July 19 reported bomb attempts) have
been arrested and are being held provisionally for 15 days,
with the possibility of renewal. When the fifth did not
present himself, the authorities apprehended his mother, who
was held for a few days before being released. However, they
have now reportedly taken his father hostage to pressure the

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fifth suspect to turn himself in. The four parliamentarians
who were arrested in April for civil disturbance plead not
guilty July 28, but were not released on bail. A verdict is
expected August 11.

Comment: Limited Chance for True Consensus
--------------

8. (C) The meeting of the four will hopefully take place in
Mozambique, giving Ravalomanana a chance to participate in
the solution. Various versions of the three-day summit idea
would all likely leave him out, but may be touted as a
consensus as they would include hundreds of other political
actors, even some fringe Legalists, if not hard-core
TIM/Ravalomanana supporters. As all the politicians vie for
a place at the trough, many in the international community
are beginning to lose patience with those that are "blocking
the negotiations and holding the nation hostage" -- with this
ire directed mainly at the exiled Ravalomanana and Ratsiraka.
If the meeting of the four next week in Mozambique fails,
which is a real possiblity given the large divide between the
positions of Ravalomanana (who still insists on being
president of the transition according to his adviser in South
Africa Prega) and Rajoelina (who will not likely give up his
current place or renounce candidacy for the Presidency),then
at least some international support may start to gather
behind one of these "plan Bs", with a likely less-than
consensual outcome. End comment.

STROMAYER