HAT FM ALLEGES RAVALOMANANA ASSOCIATED FIGURES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000548

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL MA
SUBJECT: HAT FM ALLEGES RAVALOMANANA ASSOCIATED FIGURES
RESPONSIBLE FOR BOMBINGS AND DISCUSSES POLITICAL SITUATION

REF: ANTANANARIVO 547

Classified By: DCM ERIC STROMAYER FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a Note Verbal dated July 20 to the
Diplomatic Corps the HAT Foreign Ministry alleges that
Ravalomanana and figures close to him are responsible for the
spate of bombing attempts and violence (ref A) directed at
regime offices in the last week. At HAT Foreign Minister Ny
Hasina's request he met with the Ambassador and DCM late July
21 to deliver the note and some supporting documents. He
took the opportunity after a perfunctory discussion of the
note, to also discuss the general political situation, the
July 22 ICG meeting in Addis Ababa and HAT non-participation
there as well as HAT contact with President Chissano. END
SUMMARY

RAVALOMANANA SUPPORTERS RESPONSIBLE FOR BOMBINGS


2. (C) Shortly before the arrival of the FM at the meeting an
MFA driver delivered copies of the Note Verbal and of a three
page police report summarizing the bomb related events since
June 15. The note verbal declared that preliminary inquires
reveal that the attacks are being perpetrated by "groups and
individuals" close to the Ravalomanana regime, calls on the
Diplomatic community to condemn this "terrorism," and stated
that a cessation of these acts was essential for a resumption
of negotiations. The accompanying report by the Gendarmerie
nationale outlined the events since June 18 and alleges that
the instigators of the attacks have been named by some of
those detained. The Ambassador, who personally knows some of
those who have been publicly named frankly expressed his
skepticism and that of other diplomats in Madagascar as to
the likely veracity of the HAT claims. At the same time, he
noted that the US has repeatedly condemned the use of force
and in no way condoned terrorist acts by anyone. Ny Hasina
responded that those named were all his personal friends,
that he too was initially skeptical, but that he had then
seen the three page report he had sent. The Ambassador and
DCM then reiterated their concern that allegations did not
make a case, let alone one that should be presented by the
head of state, before an investigation was complete. Ny
Hasina agreed that the publication of names at this stage was
a mistake and admitted the perpetrators may have received
money from the named parties without making clear what they
would do with it. He also expressed concern that the
perpetrators might bomb the regular Magro legalist rally site
and then blame any casualties on the HAT. The Ambassador and
DCM said they found this very unlikely if indeed the
legalists were behind the bombings, reiterating that it seems
very unclear who actually is responsible. Ny Hasina then
more or less dropped the issue leaving the Ambassador and DCM
with the impression that he was not overly convinced of his
case.


POSSIBLE CHANGES IN HAT AND ADVICE TO RAJOELINA


3. (C) Ny Hasina said that in recent conversations with
Rajoelina he has underlined that he cannot run the HAT and
seek the presidency at the same time, and that any elections
will have to be consensual if they are to be credible and
accepted by the international community. Rajoelina, he
claims, agrees with both premises but cannot decide if he
will run for President in any elections, and fears reaction
of some of his supporters if he does indeed decide to not
run. Ny Hasina also said that Rajoelina has told him he
knows he must remove Prime Minister Monja Roendefo and
appoint someone (who?) who could be more of a consensual
figure as Prime Minister to move toward the elections.
Several times Ny Hasina said that a cabinet shake up would
occur soon but was unsure who Roendefo would be replaced by.
He also expressed increasing concern about the many abuses
and self enrichment schemes that are occurring in and around
the HAT stressing that the purpose of the TGV movement was
not to "enrich ourselves," and noting his concerns about the
people that Rajoelina has surrounded himself with.

ANTANANARI 00000548 002 OF 002



HAT, CHISSANO AND ADDIS


4. (C) Turning to the Addis ICG meeting on July 22, Ny
Hasina advised that President Chissano has been in contact
directly with the HAT, and they had been very impressed by
him. Chissano had advised them he knew nothing of the
reasons why the Malagasy parties had been invited to Addis,
noting that they were not parties to the ICG, and he would
advise not attending. Ny Hasina said his impression was that
AU Mediator Ouaddrago had organized this on his own which
tracks with our assessment. As part of the ICG we advised
him that the invitation had not come for the ICG. In the
event the HAT had decided not to attend and Chissano said he
would be returning soon to Madagascar with some good ideas on
how to move the process forward. Ny Hasina added that
discussions do continue between the different groupings here
and that he did remain optimistic. We stressed it was
crucial to restore the rule of law and reach a consensual
path toward early elections.


5. (C) COMMENT: Ny Hasina's comments reflect the
realization of some in the HAT who are close to Rajeolina
that the sooner they move forward to a compromise and
elections the better. How or if he and those like him can
prevail against others who are enriching themselves remains
to be seen. The bombing campaign and who is responsible
remains to be clarified and explained. We believe it is very
unlikely that those named by the regime would organize a
bombing campaign. END COMMENT
STROMAYER