MADAGASCAR: PROPOSED TALKING POINTS FOR JULY 22

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANTANANARIVO 000526

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/EPS AND AF/E - MBEYZEROV
ADDIS FOR USAU - JMAYBURY
ADDIS FOR AMBASSADOR YAMAMOTO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: PROPOSED TALKING POINTS FOR JULY 22
ICG MEETING

REF: ANTANANARIVO 304


1. (SBU) Summary: The second consultative meeting of the
international contact group (ICG) on Madagascar will be
hosted by the African Union in Addis Ababa July 22. This
meeting presents an opportunity to shore up cohesiveness
within the international community to ensure that all ICG
members continue to send consistent, unified signals to the
de facto transition government (HAT) and other Malagasy
parties. Paragraph three contains suggested talking points
for use at the meeting, and paragraph four provides reference
background on relevant events since the first ICG
consultative meeting April 30th. End summary.


2. (SBU) The second consultative meeting of the international
contact group (ICG) on the situation in Madagascar will be
hosted by the African Union in Addis Ababa July 22. ICG
members (EU, Indian Ocean Commission, OIF, SADC, UN, Security
Council Perm 5 and 3 African non-permanent members, and
possibly also COMESA) will discuss efforts to return to
constitutional order in Madagascar since the first
consultative meeting of April 30 (reftel). Several ICG
members are planning to send senior representatives from
their capitals to attend the meeting. Notably, France, which
is highly engaged in an ambivalent way on the ground here,
reportedly plans to send Stephane Gompertz, A/S equivalent
for Africa at the Quai d'Orsay. The Ambassador was informed
by the leaders of the TIM delegation that all four Malagasy
delegations had been invited by AU Envoy Ablasse Ouedraogo to
attend a session on July 21 or 22, perhaps indicating that
the AU intends to try to maintain its lead role in the
negotiations. The four envoys (former Swazi Prime Minister
Themba Dlamini of SADC, Ouedraogo for the AU, former Malian
Foreign Minister Tiebile Drame for the UN, and former
Togolese Prime Minister Edem Kodjo of the OIF) will also meet
on July 21, presumably to sort out leadership questions
between the AU and SADC in the negotiation process. SADC has
staked out a claim to this position by naming former
Mozambican President Chissano as its mediator (rather than a
simple "envoy"),bolstered by a team including Dlamini, a
former foreign minister of Mozambique, a former defense
minister of South Africa, and legal experts from Angola and
Mauritius.


3. (SBU) This ICG meeting presents an opportunity to shore up
solidarity within the international community to ensure that
all members are sending the same signals to the Malagasy
transition authority (HAT) and other political actors. In
our view, it is important to support SADC, the regional
entity, as the lead mediator in this process, while ensuring
meaningful but subordinate roles for the AU, UN and others.
Without cohesiveness among the mediators and among the
international community, the ICG negotiation process has
little chance of success. During the ICG meeting, U.S.
officials should urge all members to refrain from taking
actions that legitimize the HAT and should encourage all
members to pressure the HAT to engage in negotiations rather
then moving unilaterally towards elections. While time is
important and the situation here remains urgent (in part,
because of the AGOA eligibility timetable and the devastating
impact of AGOA ineligibility on the local economy),it is
more important to hold elections in a consensual manner, even
if soing so delays the process; the alternative of early but
illegitimate elections will solve nothing and must be
avoided. Following are suggested talking points for use by
U.S. officials during the ICG meeting:

-- The U.S. thanks the AU for convening this meeting. We
continue to support the AU, SADC, UN, and the OIF in their
efforts to promote the restoration of constitutional order
and the rule of law in Madagascar. We applaud the tireless
efforts of the mediation team during May and June to move
this process forward, as well as the efforts of SADC Mediator
Chissano this month to usher the Malagasy delegations back to
the negotiating table. We support SADC's assumption of the
lead role in the negotiations as the relevant regional
organization, closest to the situation on the ground.

-- The U.S. views this situation in the context of the
recent, alarming increase in the incidence of coups d'etat in
Africa and applauds the AU for its strong leadership in
condemning and sanctioning all unconstitutional changes of
power.

-- We reiterate the views expressed by the ICG members in

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April that a consensual political process leading to free,
fair, and unbiased presidential elections at the earliest
possible date is the only way out of the present crisis.
Unilaterally-organized elections will not be viewed as
legitimate by the other political factions and the
international community, and will only perpetuate the cycle
of political crises in Madagascar, with an attendant risk of
renewed violence.

-- We reiterate the points made in an April 24 joint AU-UN
communiquQ in Antananarivo expressing deep concern about
ongoing intimidation, calling for the parties to engage in
dialogue, and reminding of the importance of
respecting human rights in Madagascar. We remain deeply
concerned about the suppression of media freedoms and arrests
of political prisoners by the high transition authority
(HAT).

-- We therefore call on the HAT to take concrete steps as
soon as possible to re-establish the rule of law in
Madagascar. Doing so is critical to creationg a climate for
reconciliation among the parties, and is also a pre-requisite
for the renewal of AGOA eligibility on which many jobs and a
large part of Madagascar's export economy depend. Meeting
the established criteria for AGOA eligibility is the
responsibility of the Malagasy authorities, not the USG.

-- At the same time, we call on all parties to this
political impasse to compromise, to avoid upping the ante
with additional, often peripheral demands, and to desist from
all actions and statements that complicate or aggravate the
delicate political sitation in Madagascar.

-- Finally, the U.S. expresses our view that the Group and
its members should continue to act in a concerted manner to
put pressure on the illegal authorities in Madagascar, as
well as on the other political movements, to seriously engage
in negotiations with a view to achieving consensus and moving
rapidly to restore constitutional order. We encourage all
Group members to continue their isolation and/or
non-recognition of the HAT, in their words and in their deeds.

-- While maintaining humanitarian programs essential to the
well-being of the Malagasy people, many of Madagascar's
partners, both bilateral and multilateral, have suspended
their non-humanitarian assistance to the illegal authorities,
as has the USG. This useful approach gives teeth, leverage,
and consequences to our declarations and should therefore be
continued until concrete actions by the HAT merit a change.
Continuation of military assistance to the HAT seems
particularly inappropriate under the circumstances.


4. (SBU) For background and easy reference during the
meeting, the following is a timeline of key events pertaining
to the Malagasy crisis since the last ICG meeting on April 30:

- May 2: The ICG issued a communiquQ underlining "the
imperative for a rapid return to constitutional order through
a consensual process involving all the Malagasy political
actors and based on respect for the relevant provisions of
the Constitution". ICG members agreed to support the
"process of restoring constitutional order under the auspices
of the AU." The communiquQ outlined the following
objectives: "a clear calendar towards holding free, fair, and
transparent elections involving all stakeholders under a
neutral electoral body including representatives of all
political camps . . .including President Marc Ravalomanana. .
. in the search for a solution; promotion of consensus among
the Malagasy parties; respect for the Constitution of
Madagascar; compliance with relevant AU instruments and the
international commitments of Madagascar. The participants
emphasized the risks associated with any unilateral move to
legitimize the unconstitutional change that occurred in
Madagascar and urged the de facto authorities and other
Malagasy parties to place the interests of Madagascar and the
search for consensus above all other considerations."

- May - July: ICG member representatives in Madagascar met
with the High Commissioner on Human Rights May 15, with
visiting EU representatives May 18, and the Swedish
Ambassador to the EU July 13. The AU convened the ICG for
four meetings between May and July to discuss the status of
negotiations.

- June 8: COMESA, which has not been involved in mediation

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efforts, issued an unhelpful communiquQ following its 13th
summit in which it called for the return to constitutional
rule by the return of the democratically elected government
and "agreed as pronounced by the AU to fully support SADC as
they take a lead in their efforts to restore constitutional
order in Madagascar by examining all options including the
possibility of military intervention." (Note: The March 30
SADC Communique actually made no/no explicit reference to any
military option; rather it referred vaguely, in article 18,
to considering "other options to restore constitutional
normalcy.")

- June 16: The AU and UN envoys announced that the
negotiations were suspended due to the parties' inability to
reach an agreement on the terms of an amnesty. Prior to the
suspension of negotiations, the four movements had agreed on
the basic structure of a transition government, but not on
how to allocate positions, including that of transition
president. According to AU principles, with which we agree,
the leader of the transition government should not be able to
run for president. HAT president Andry Rajoelina agreed that
he would not run, but retracted his statement the following
day. He then agreed that he would not run only if the other
movement leaders agreed also to not run, which they have
never accepted.

- June 17: The State Department issued the following press
release: The United States regrets the suspension of the
African Union- and United Nations-led mediation process in
Madagascar. We applaud the tireless efforts of the mediation
team to move the process forward, and continue to urge all
parties to rapidly return to the negotiating table and come
to agreement on the elements of a consensual transition
government. We continue to believe that the only way to
resolve this crisis is through a consensual political process
leading to elections at the earliest possible date. We
condemn the unconstitutional actions that led to the current
situation, and categorically reject the use of force as a
means to resolve this crisis. We remain impartial and will
not support unilateral solutions by particular political
factions, as such moves would not produce a lasting solution
based on credible, unbiased elections."

- June 20: SADC convened an emergency meeting on Madagascar,
during which it nominated former Mozambican President
Chissano as mediator in the Malagasy crisis. SADC helpfully
changed its previous position, which had called for the
unconditional reinstatement of Ravalomanana. The communiquQ
issued June 20 "urged all stakeholders to commit themselves
to peaceful negotiated settlement through dialogue and desist
from any violent solutions and inflammatory statements which
may jeopardize and undermine current efforts in bringing
constitutional normalcy."

- June 24 - July 3: The AU held its 13th summit in Sirte, but
issued no resolutions on Madagascar.

- June 29 - July 3: The Malagasy transition authority (HAT)
held regional conferences to discuss various issues,
including the structure of government, age limits for
presidential candidates, and the terms of a possible amnesty
for political actors such as former President Ratsiraka,
ousted President Ravalomanana, and presidential-hopeful
Pierrot Rajaonarivelo. The conferences, which were decried
as biased and boycotted by the other main political
movements, were intended to lay the groundwork for a national
conference that the HAT plans to hold by the end of July.
The national conference would determine the electoral
calendar and other related issues.

- July 6-7: A HAT delegation, led by Andry Rajoelina, engaged
in consultations with the European Union in Brussels under
Article 96 of the Cotonou Agreement regarding Madagascar's
compliance with the democracy, rule of law, and human rights
conditions of that agreement. The EU issued a statement July
7 in which it found the HAT's proposals to return to
constitutional rule unsatisfactory and urged the HAT to
continue discussions with the Malagasy political forces under
the auspices of the ICG to reach a consensual agreement
allowing a return to constitutional order. The EU decided to
keep its development programs suspended, with the exception
of humanitarian aid and other programs directly benefiting
the people. A final decision regarding the Euro 630 million
of frozen aid will be made in early November, when the
120-day "clock" under Article 96 expires..

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- July 9-12: SADC Mediator Chissano visited Madagascar to
meet with the transition authority (HAT) president Andry
Rajoelina, representatives of the Zafy, Ratsiraka, and
Ravalomanana delegations, and civil society. He met with
exiled President Ravalomanana July 12 in South Africa, and
will have been in New York for UN meetings and in Paris for
discussions with the French and with Ratsiraka before the
next ICG. All parties expressed their willingness to return
to negotiations, but no date or forum has yet been set.


5. (U) Please note that 'Tana P/E Chief Dovie Holland will
attend the ICG in support of Ambassador Yamamoto. She plans
to arrive in Addis on Monday, July 20, and to depart on
Thursday, July 23. Country clearance has been requested
separately.

MARQUARDT