MADAGASCAR: TANGLED POLITICS, BUT DIALOGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000487

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: TANGLED POLITICS, BUT DIALOGUE
CONTINUES

REF: A. ANTANANARIVO 484

B. ANTANANARIVO 476

Classified By: POLOFF JEFF HULSE FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: Madagascar's High Transitional Authority
(HAT) launched a round of four-day Regional Meetings
("assises regionales") in all 22 regions on June 30, in an
attempt to add grassroots legitimacy to their transition
government. These meetings were also "to give the people a
voice" as they prepare for a National Conference in mid-July,
to consider revising the constitution, and to prepare for the
resumption of international mediation efforts under the aegis
of SADC in the coming weeks. The Meetings have been
boycotted by all three significant opposition movements, as
well as the largest civil society coalition, but some
opposition leaders leave open the possibility of
participating in the National Conference - with conditions.
As SADC prepares to resume the mediation effort, political
talks continue on the sidelines in Tana; a consensual
solution may not be imminent, but skepticism about the
resumption of international mediation has spurred the parties
to keep talking politics. END SUMMARY.

LITTLE CHANGE SINCE THE SUSPENSION
--------------

2. (C) Since the June 16 suspension of UN/AU/SADC/OIF
negotiations in Antananarivo, the four participating
political movements have made little tangible progress.
Didier Ratsiraka, still in France, continues to demand a
"cancellation" of his convictions before his representatives
will engage in further talks. Albert Zafy (always the least
influential and most flexible),continues to focus on
national reconciliation and the formation of an inclusive
government. The HAT of Andry Rajoelina is plowing ahead on
the blueprint it laid out in April (if somewhat belatedly:
the Regional Meetings should have been in May, and the
National Conference before the June 26 holiday),in an
attempt to prove that it can govern on its own and pressure
its political rivals, and the international community, into
accepting its leadership of the transition. Ravalomanana
(still in South Africa) has helpfully declared his support
for the upcoming SADC mediation, but has yet to call off his
supporters' daily demonstrations or extinguish their hope for
his imminent return. When the negotiating team returns, they
will likely find that very little has changed outwardly since
their departure.

REGIONAL MEETINGS: POLITICAL THEATER IN THE PROVINCES...
-------------- --------------

3. (C) The current Regional Meetings will run from June 30 to
July 3, and are billed as a chance for the Malagasy people to
express their views on many of the issues that will guide the
transition government, and inform the debate on
constitutional reforms. It has also become a chance to pass
the buck on politically sensitive issues. HAT advisor Yvon
William Randriazanakolona (aka "Sareraka") recently informed
EmbOff that if presidential hopeful Pierrot Rajaonarivelo
wanted an amnesty for his 2002 conviction (which currently
prevents him from running in an election),he would have to
get that on the agenda at the Meeting in his native region of
Atsinanana (Tamatave). This contrasts sharply with
Rajaonarivelo's recent comments to Ambassador Marquardt,
indicating his hope for a "secret amnesty deal" facilitated
by Legalist opposition leader Alain Andriamiseza - an
admittedly unrealistic scenario. By pushing such issues out
to the regions, the HAT will find it easy to simply avoid
responding - just as they've done by sending "political
prisoners" to a lax form of house arrest to avoid granting
pardons, claiming that an amnesty for Ratsiraka can only be
decided by an elected legislature -- which doesn't currently
exist -- and repeatedly asserting that "only the people can
decide" if Rajoelina should run in an eventual presidential
election, despite his earlier statement that he will not run.


4. (C) The HAT has also devised a survey with 39 questions
that they intend to be the focal point of these Meetings,
with sections on constitutional reforms, political parties,
media, the role of opposition parties and former presidents,
and the nature of "national reconciliation". The
questionnaire is confusing ("shall we set up a judiciary
power, a judiciary committee, or an entity with a
jurisdictional role?"),leading ("shall we copy all other
countries and hold a President responsible for crimes
committed while serving as President?"),and poorly
conceived: since most of the recipients will not understand

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most of the questions, they will likely seek instruction from
the organizers. Despite a public boycott by the opposition,
the HAT will sell these meetings as an attempt to engage in
open dialogue with their opponents, and then blame opposition
obstructionism for their failure to obtain "consensus". The
meetings could usefully serve as regional "party congresses"
for the HAT, providing them an opportunity to develop a
political platform, but only if they recognize that the
elusive "consensual solution" will not be achieved by simply
inviting their opponents to talk: their rivals must actually
accept the invitation, as well.

...WHILE THE REAL SHOW'S IN TANA
--------------

5. (C) Away from the spotlight of the Regional Meetings,
talks continue among the major political movements in
Antananarivo, all of whom are skeptical about the eventual
resumption of international mediation. Legalist leader and
seasoned political operator Andriamiseza has for weeks been
working in the shadows to bring the four movements, plus that
of Pierrot Rajoanarivelo, into an accord that leaves much of
the HAT intact (including leaving Rajoelina and Monja as
President and Prime Minister, respectively). The catch
remains his conviction that such talks are best done in
secret, and presented as faits accomplis to their leaders
once their subordinates have achieved consensus. His
confidence in that method is not borne out by the continued
failure of delegates to actually speak for their leaders, but
recent conversations with advisors in the HAT indicate that
they at least may be prepared to strike a deal with the
Legalists; this would leave diehard supporters of
Ravalomanana, Ratsiraka, and Zafy in a shrinking minority.
If he is successful, Andriamiseza intends to make his
"committee" public after the Regional Meetings, paving the
way for participation in the National Conference.


6. (C) COMMENT: Political debate in Madagascar is no longer
about counter-coups or reinstating Ravalomanana. The major
political actors are actively engaged in a web of backroom
deals (whether to obtain amnesty, find a power-sharing
formula, or achieve the release of high-profile political
prisoners),running parallel to their public efforts (such as
the HAT's Regional Meetings, the Legalists' daily
demonstrations in Tana, or Ravalomanana's visit to the AU
summit in Syrte). These seemingly counterproductive projects
will continue, however: the ongoing, peaceful street
demonstrations keep the HAT from unilaterally declaring
victory in the absence of tangible opposition, and the
success (real or imagined) of the Regional Meetings will
ensure that the other movements keep searching for a way to
remain relevant. As SADC prepares to take over the mediation
effort, Madagascar's political movements will continue to
seek their own solution in parallel; although a consensual,
inclusive transition government may not be easy, all parties
appear to accept the need to achieve it through dialogue,
with more than a bit of political theater on the side. END
COMMENT.
MARQUARDT