Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ANTANANARIVO450
2009-06-19 08:07:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:  

MADAGASCAR: PERIODIC SECURITY UPDATE JUNE 19

Tags:  ASEC CASC MA MP PGOV PREL PTER 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0002
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHAN #0450/01 1700807
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 190807Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2559
C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000450 

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR DS, D, P, M, S/CT, CA, AF, AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2029
TAGS: ASEC CASC MA MP PGOV PREL PTER
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: PERIODIC SECURITY UPDATE JUNE 19

REF: ANTAN 435

Classified By: RSO R.J. BENT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000450

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR DS, D, P, M, S/CT, CA, AF, AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2029
TAGS: ASEC CASC MA MP PGOV PREL PTER
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: PERIODIC SECURITY UPDATE JUNE 19

REF: ANTAN 435

Classified By: RSO R.J. BENT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Unfounded rumors and press reports of
mercenaries hired by Ravalomanana (Ra8) arriving in country
continue, as have inaccurate press reports of alleged U.S.
support for the Legalists. However, the Department's June 17
press statement usefully correcteed the record and played in
some of the press here as the U.S. finally "deserting"
Ravalomanana. A small explosive device detonated at a
French-owned grocery store on June 16; no injuries were
reported. In the approach toward National Day on June 26,
the HAT transitional government announced the roll-out of a
new security plan, Vigimada. Peaceful Legalist rallies
continue on a daily basis. END SUMMARY


2. (C) MORE RUMORS OF MERCENARIES: The subject of recent
rumors, based on inaccurate press reports and fueled by
deliberate partisan manipulation of public opinion, is the
arrival of mercenaries funded by Ravalomanana with the intent
of retaking control of the country - a plan that is not
feasible. (See Reftel for more detail.) The international
airport at Tana/Ivato is now slightly more heavily guarded.
All flight manifests are being screened more carefully than
usual before entry. As a cultural point, nationalist Malagasy
citizens would react poorly to mercenaries on their soil, as
evidenced by the uproar and media frenzy in February/March
over equally groundless reports of "mercenaries" (who turned
out to be foreign security advisors providing -- very
indiscreetly -- after-sales-service on tear gas and other
riot-control equipment received at that time). Operationally
and financially, it would take a significant effort to take
over Madagascar, the 4th largest island in the world. And
being an island, there is also the nature nautical fortress
to overcome. Nonetheless, all these logical factos to not
prevent large sectors of the Malagasy population from
believing these mercenaries' arrival is imminent.



3. (C) EXPLOSION AT A GROCERY STORE: On June 16, a small
explosive device detonated in a French-owned grocery store,
Leader Price, causing damage but harming no one. This
occurred at a remote branch of the grocery chain that is not
regularly frequented by Americans or the mission community.
The blast led to local speculation that it might have been an
attack against French-linked targets by frustrated
Ravalomanana supporters, and that it might portend more such
acts. Others speculated that it was perpetrated by pro-HAT
forces seeking to pin the blame on the pro-Ravalomanana side.
In the event, no further such events have occurred, and the
police have yet to determine who was responsible. Even if
suspects are named, given the opaque political and legal
system here, it will be unclear whether they were the true
perpetrators. RSO inside sources attribute the incident to a
vendetta against the chain owners, as they have been
previously targeted and fled the country soon after that
attack.


4. (U) VIGIMADA: Within a few hours after the above
mentioned bombing, the HAT government announced the creation
of the, "Vigimada" (similar to the French Vigipirate security
plan) to quell rumors of foreign mercenaries and ensure
safety and security as the Malagasy Independence day
approaches (June 26). Since it is a military plan, precise
details have not been announced, but there are mentions of
deployed armored vehicles in the provinces.


5. (C) PEACEFUL RALLIES CONTINUE ON A DAILY BASIS: On June
10, it was announced at the daily Legalist/Ra8 rally that
protesters were to carry U.S. flags with them the following
day to symbolize "U.S. support of the legalist movement." On
June 11, for the first time, the Legalist crowd peacefully
left their usual location (Magro) and marched peacefully to
Democracy Square, carrying some U.S. flags and wearing some
red, white and blue clothing. At the Square, the stage was
set with two U.S. flags as part of the backdrop. These
practices lasted only one day, but there are lingering press
reports referring to this alleged American support. In the
same vein, "La Verite" also reported that Ra8 had hired an
SOC LLC, a Nevada-based security company that has contracts
with the Department of State. In off-the-record contacts and
through other channels, post has made it known -- including
to Ravalomanana himself, but also to the HAT -- that such
reports are inaccurate and that all claims of U.S. support
should stop. On June 17, the Department helpfully issued a
press statement (widely covered in the local press)
re-asserting US impartiality and rejecting all use of force
to resolve the crisis here. This statement appears to have
driven a stake through the heart of any remaining claims that
the U.S. supports any one side in this crisis.
MARQUARDT