Comoros Plans To Hold Legislative Elections in July

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000446

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL CN
SUBJECT: Comoros Plans To Hold Legislative Elections in July

REF: ANTAN 357


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: While still implementing new constitutional
provisions, President Sambi intends to hold legislative elections
before Ramadan begins in late August and has asked donors for
financing and technical assistance. Hundreds of candidates will
likely contest the more than 70 positions at the National Assembly
and three island "parliaments." Once elected, these legislators are
expected, pursuant to the new constitution, to decide on the date
for the next Union Presidential election. END SUMMARY.

GOC Implements New Constitution
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2. (SBU) The GOC has established a committee of jurists and other
experts to implement the sweeping changes in institutions and
authorities embodied in the May 17 constitutional referendum
(REFTEL). Briefing the diplomatic community, Chief of Cabinet
Dossar and Minister of Justice Mmadi insisted governance would
improve and President Sambi would be more able to achieve his
development objectives.


3. (SBU) Comoros Officer again encouraged reconciliation and
dialogue, commending President Sambi for his ongoing talks with all
three island executives. Replying to African Union S/E Madeira's
talking point about "consensus" (the exact word Tanzanian President
Kikwete used in speeches while visiting the Comoros),Dossar said
consensus is neither desirable nor feasible. "We are in the
majority, we are elected, the referendum passed, and we have to
govern," Dossar declared. He accepted that reconciliation and
dialogue were valid issues in the Comoros and said the Union
Government would continue along these lines; but he flatly rejected
the notion that the Comoros could be ruled by consensus.

Legislative Elections
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4. (SBU) Currently, no legislative branch exists in the Comoros; a
"void" that President Sambi acknowledges as serious. He told the
dip corps he intends to hold legislative elections - for the
National Assembly Deputies and the island parliament "counselors"
before Ramadan begins (about August 20). Such a deadline requires
electoral list revisions, registering candidates, producing ballots,
and organizing logistics in the next six weeks in order to hold the
first round end July then the second round three weeks later. No
official decree announcing the date for the legislative election has
been issued. Our French, UN, EU, and AU colleagues expect to
respond favorably to the request for financial and technical
assistance, but must have detailed budgets and timelines, as well as
adequate notice, to mobilize resources. AU Ambassador Mourad told
Comoros Officer that a high-level AU Peace and Security delegation
would visit the Comoros in June. South African Ambassador Mabeta
made clear in a recent meeting that his country had no intention of
contributing anything near the scale of the major military/logistics
deployment for the AU-organized presidential election in 2006.


5. (SBU) Already many dozens of political leaders have expressed
their intention to run for one of the 70 National Assembly or island
parliament positions. These elected officials will then meet in
Congress, as per the recent referendum, to decide on the date for
the next Union Presidential election. The new constitution is
subject to multiple interpretations, but the Congress seems to have
the authority to select any date as long as the Union President and
island governors are elected the same day; thereafter all four have
five year terms. The political compromise still required is to
"harmonize" mandates that currently end in 2010 (Sambi),2012
(Abdouwahabi and Ali Said) and 2013 (Toybou). Vice President Idi
Nadhoim told Comoros Officer he is advocating for early 2012 for the
next Presidential election; giving Sambi two additional years beyond
his legal mandate and allowing opposition governors Abdouwahabi and
Ali Said to complete their terms of office. For Anjouan's pro-Sambi
governor Toybou, "we'll give him a big check and if he gets
reelected, he does not lose anything." Vice President Idi agreed
with Comoros Officer's assertion that Sambi has the constitution he
wants, "now we have to deliver, but we have no money."

Mohelians Say Fomboni Accords "Dead"
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6. (SBU) Moheli Governor Ali Said and his colleagues insist the May
17 referendum was illegitimate but accept they are powerless to do
anything about it. He told AU S/E Madeira the 2001 Fomboni Accords
- which ended a secession crisis and established the rotating
presidency - were "dead" because Moheli would not get its rightful
turn in 2010. Noting both the AU and La Francophonie were
signatories to Fomboni, Ali Said insisted they should be "guarantors
of its provisions." S/E Madeira insisted the rotation would be
respected and Moheli would get his turn. However, when voices
around the room cried "when?" he was silent.


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7. (SBU) Both Moheli's Ali Said and Grande Comore's Abdouwahabi
continue to issue joint declarations, most recently following their
May 22 meeting with President Sambi. Privately Abdouwahabi has
split with his Mohelian opposition counterpart, accepting the
referendum, worried about the authority (and money) he is losing,
and focusing on gaining an opposition majority at the legislative
elections. Ali Said is under intense pressure from political
leaders in Moheli to defend the tiny island's promised turn in the
rotating presidency. However, Ali Said monopolizes most of Moheli's
economy and is comfortable in his position as governor even with
diminished authority. Former Prime Minister Bolero, an opposition
leader not currently in office, told Comoros Officer that Ali Said
has neither the leverage nor the courage to risk his current
position to really challenge President Sambi.

COMMENT:
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8. (SBU) While the GOC and diplomats seem to agree that the
legislative elections require donor financing, some political and
business contacts are not so sure. They note the USD 24 million
pledged by the Arab League and allege support from Kuwait-based
"Comoro Gulf Holdings" and even Iran that would allow President
Sambi to hold the elections in July without the help of traditional
donors. The quality and legitimacy of these important legislative
elections will depend on how much time is available to plan and how
deeply the AU, EU, French, and UN will be involved in its
organization. Questions that depend on them include: who will hold
Comoros' future stability in their hands when they meet in
"Congress" to decide; ultimately, how long Sambi stays in power; and
how much longer Moheli has to wait? END COMMENT.

MARQUARDT