REQUEST TO LIFT ORDERED DEPARTURE STATUS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000406

FOR M, DS, AND AF FROM AMBASSADOR MARQUARDT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2014
TAGS: AMGT ASEC MA
SUBJECT: REQUEST TO LIFT ORDERED DEPARTURE STATUS FOR
ANTANANARIVO

REF: TANA 404

Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 D AND E


1. (SBU) I hereby request M approval to lift Antananarivo's Ordered Departure (OD) status at the 90-day decision point. Reftel reported on yesterday's EAC meeting, which recommended again that I request OD to be lifted. I fully concur in the EAC's assessment and am hereby making my
formal recommendation and request for immediate lifting of OD status.


2. (C) Given that our sole remaining reverse tripwire concerns the stability of the current government and prospects for a roadmap leading to a durable solution, I would emphasize that progress toward a political solution is continuing. In the topsy-turvy, and often surreal, world of Malagasy politics, it is unwise to make specific predictions. I will therefore not try to state definitively what will come next here. However, today's press announced publicly that the parties will go to Addis next week for signature of the "Transition Charter" that has been under negotiation since mid-April. That may or may not happen next week, but it is consistent with the confidential reports we have been receiving, and reporting, from the negotiators themselves. Whether or not this occurs, and on what timetable, the main point is that the locus of political disagreement for two months now has been around a negotiating table, not in the streets. Meanwhile, as stated in reftel, day-to-day governance is stable, if still somewhat weak.


3. (SBU) I would like to help the Department understand just how normal daily life has become in Tana, and that for several months now. As an example, upon returning yesterday to post, I and the DCM went for a stroll at lunchtime that took us from the chancery to a nearby restaurant. As always,
we walked out with no security -- and with no security concerns (except for Tana's ubiquitous pickpockets). We also looked in on another restaurant -- open for its very first day of business -- where the proud owner explained "we are opening because the situation has now stabilized." After
lunch, I walked through the Place du 13. Mai (site of multiple political rallies before the coup),to Ambohijavovo Park (site of other rallies before and since the coup),and in front of the Ambohisohitra Presidential Palace (site of the February 7 massacre),before returning to the chancery. It was as pleasant, normal and uneventful a stroll as if I had walked from the Department to Lafayette Park and back. Those who recognized me were friendly; most were simply going about the business of daily life. Security forces were adequate but discreet. A visitor to Tana today would never know that these sites had witnessed, several months ago, significant tension and violence.


4. (SBU) As Chief of Mission, my sole rpt sole consideration in requesting lifting of OD -- just as it was when I requested OD - is the safety of the persons under my authority. In that regard, I have no second thoughts or
hestitation in stating categorically that life in Tana is as safe today as it was before the crisis began. Our only real security concern here today is the post's critical crime level, which, while worsening with the economy, has been at this level for several years now. And I would note that the actual threat here remains far lower than at many other posts where the stroll I describe above would be inconceivable. Today, as another example, I will give the commencement address at the American School. ASA never closed during the
crisis and its enrollment is close to pre-crisis levels -- but for the USG dependents who, alone among their classmates, are still in evacuation status.


5. (C) While safety is the only/only relevant consideration in recommending whether or not to lift OD, let me note for the record some of the implications of not lifting OD which nonetheless also must concern me as COM. First, morale at post is starting to decline. My colleagues and their
families here were fully cooperative and understanding when we requested OD, and they could not have been more mature and responsive in leaving the post immediately when it was declared; indeed, it was a model evacuation. The negative impact on morale now comes from the fact that no one here today understands why OD has not been lifted, given the manifest return to normalcy and the weeks that have elapsed since its return. Our perceptions are reinforced by contact with non-USG friends here, who do not understand the
rationale for not returning. At this Wednesday's bi-weekly Town Hall meeting for Amcits, one AmCit stated "You must have some sensitive intelligence that you can,t share with us. Otherwise this makes no sense."


6. (C) Secondly, the local diplomatic community and our Malagasy interlocutors are starting to look upon us Americans as over-reactors. Our colleagues fully understand why we left, but they cannot understand why we have not yet accepted that it is safe to come back. This, unfortunately, is
starting to have a negative impact on our overall credibility, as they extrapolate from our apparent perception that conditions here are not yet safe that we may also be unable to interpret correctly other basic facts here. This is not helpful as we try to convince colleagues in the
International Contact Group to take certain positions, such as insisting that the current HAT President should not run as a candidate in the next election while also running the transition that will prepare it.


7. (SBU) Finally, as we approach the coming assignments cycle in OD status, with all but a handful of our positions on the block for 2010, I am deeply concerned about the talent we will be able to attract and hire. This post could be blighted for years by an enduring perception of Tana as an "unsafe post." Were it actually unsafe, I would accept this as a fact of life -- but Tana is not Beirut or N'Djamena, and should not be treated as such. Indeed, this remains an excellent family post -- albeit one that had periodically
gone through some tough patches. Lifting OD would recognize that the latest tough patch is now over.

MARQUARDT