MADAGASCAR: MONTH THREE OF GENERAL SOCIAL CALM BEGINS, AS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000390

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR DS, D, P, M, CA, INR, AF/E-MBEYZEROV

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: MONTH THREE OF GENERAL SOCIAL CALM BEGINS, AS
MEDIATION AND POLITICAL POSTURING CONTINUE

REF: A: ANTANANARIVO 364 B: ANTANANARIVO 370


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With the exception of a brief flare up of violent
confrontations April 20-25, Madagascar and Antananarivo are moving
into the third month of general social calm since the coup of
mid-March. The generally positive conditions reported in refs A and
B continue to prevail. Through the period since March there have
been no reported attacks or credible threats against foreigners or
the US mission. Political dialogue led by the international
mediation team continues fitfully, punctuated with political
posturing by all sides. The talks continue behind the scenes none
the less and the mediators remain optimistic that the process is
moving forward toward a signed charter of the transition by
(optimistically) June 11. The military remains largely apathetic.
Shopping areas frequented by expats and the US community remain well
stocked and secure as do gas stations. Restaurants are open, and
anecdotally tourists are reported to be returning. The airport is
open and operating normally. END SUMMARY.


Daily Life Continues Normally
--------------

2. (SBU) The situation remains calm in Antananarivo, with no clashes
between protestors and police in the capital since April 25, despite
almost daily non-violent, stationary small-scale protests in favor
of Ravalomanana. The rest of the country remained calm as well,
with only one minor skirmish between security forces and protesters
reported in Antsirabe May 23, during which police used tear gas to
disperse a small crowd, causing minor injuries. Life goes on as
normal for locals and expatriates, with grocery stores,
supermarkets, gas stations, and other stores well-stocked. Food in
the city appears readily available for the local population as well.
A visible security presence remains deployed throughout the city.
All airports have remained operational since the crisis began, and
the embassy has not been closed due to political confrontations
since March 18. As reflected in the May 27-28 military "assises",
the military has settled into inactivity and seems resigned to lay
low, allowing the politicians to sort out Madagascar's governance
issues without its intervention (DAO septel).

Talks on Hold but Shuttle Diplomacy Continues
--------------

3. (SBU) The International Contact Group (ICG) mediators from the
African Union and SADC convened ICG members and local diplomats, as
well as a visiting delegation from the Indian Ocean Commission, on
May 29 to provide an update on the status of the Malagasy political
negotiations. AU Mediator Ablasse Ouedraogo explained that,
although negotiations have not advanced this week, they have not
lost ground, and he remains optimistic that remaining issues can be
worked out following a potential relocation of negotiations to Addis
Ababa June 6. Ouedraogo explained that the three former presidents,
Ratsiraka, Zafy, and Ravalomanana, as well as transition leader
Rajoelina, would not participate directly in negotiations at Addis
but would be located nearby. This move would allow currently exiled
leaders Ravalomanana and Ratsiraka to quickly provide guidance to
their delegations. Ouedraogo has submitted a budget request to the
AU for the move, but requested support from the international
community in providing a sixty seat airplane to transport the
delegations. He optimistically aims for Ratsiraka, Zafy,
Ravalomanana, and Rajoelina to sign the transition charter by June
11 in Addis, or at the latest by June 26, Madagascar's Independence
Day.


4. (SBU) The four movements were all given copies of a draft
transition charter to review on May 25. They agreed to meet May 27
to continue negotiations, but Ratsiraka's team requested additional
time to review the document and raised two preconditions prior to
resuming talks: 1) an annulment of legal claims and judgments
against him and his supporters arising from 2002 events and 2) a
cancellation of the ordinance creating the National Defense Military
Council (CMDN) that was issued unilaterally by the transition
administration (HAT) with disregard to the ongoing discussions.
Ouedraogo explained that all four movements had already agreed to an
amnesty, absent gross human rights violations and other egregious
acts, that the issue of the CMDN would be raised with Rajoelina upon
his return, and that he encouraged Ratsiraka's team to bring their
concerns to the negotiating table. Ouedraogo planned to contact the
heads of the four delegations to meet following the ICG meeting May
29 to talk about these concerns. Negotiations will
resume once Ratsiraka's team gives the green light.

Inflammatory Rhetoric and Rumors
--------------

5. (SBU) Despite inflammatory media statements by Rajoelina that the
HAT would never agree to Ravalomanana's return (May 27),which
Ouedraogo attributed to Rajoelina's need to assure his supporters
prior to his departure from country, and Ravalomanana's claims that
France was entirely responsible for his overthrow (May 26) and then
that he would return with troops and punish all those military

ANTANANARI 00000390 002 OF 002


personnel involved in the coup (May 28),shuttle diplomacy by the AU
and SADC continues with each of the delegations. The delegations
are reviewing the draft charter to identify concerns for further
discussion. Ouedraogo identified the key remaining sticking points
as the composition and leadership of the HAT, members of the
transition congress, and the make-up of the national unity
government. The French Ambassador added that the timing and
conditions of Ravalomanana's return have not yet been decided, but
believed that although difficult points remained to be resolved, the
delegations had the political will to do so, noting in addition
France is in regular contact with Ratsiraka urging his cooperation.



6. (SBU) In keeping with the rumor mill that runs here media
reports of "hundreds of troops" descending on the airport May 28
because of rumors of Ravalomanana's "imminent return" actually
consisted of a beefed up presence of 20-30 personnel who in no way
disrupted operations according to Embassy GSO expediters and DAO
contacts.

SADC Envoy to Depart and Report to King
--------------

7. (SBU) SADC Envoy Absalom Dlamini will depart May 29 to return to
Swaziland and provide a report to the Swazi King. He also hopes to
pressure Ravalomanana to limit irresponsible, inflammatory rhetoric.
Dlamini clarified that SADC will only be providing moral support to
Ravalomanana, but no SADC brigade, and chalked Ravalomanana's
assertions up to rhetoric to stir up his supporters. Ouedraogo
urged all international community representatives with access to
Ravalomanana to pass him this same message. UN Senior Mediator
Tiebiele Drame is scheduled to return to Madagascar the week of June

1.

US Concern Regarding Head of Transition Running in Election
--------------

8. (SBU) During the May 29 meeting, the Charge D'Affaires raised USG
concern that the AU principle that the head of the transition
government should not be able to run for president be respected,
adding that if in fact the head of the transition did run for
president while still leading the transition this would raise
serious concern for the United States. Ouedraogo responded that he
noted the US concern about this issue, but this decision rested with
the Malagasy involved in the negotiations. Privately, the SADC
envoy and the UN representative expressed support for this
principle, but lamented that they had lost this argument when the
"none of the four can run" strategy, supported by Rajoelina, failed
and was replaced by the "all can run" strategy that all parties have
now agreed to support. In earlier meetings, the French Ambassador
expressed the view that this principle, in addition to a signed
consensual charter, was crucial to a successful outcome. In the
event, today France was silent on the issue.


9. (SBU) COMMENT: Daily life throughout Madagascar has returned to
normalcy, although the political situation remains unresolved.
Despite this week's inflammatory political and media rhetoric, the
negotiations are continuing and incremental progress has been made
and maintained to date, although remaining issues, including the
make up of the transition legislative and executive bodies will
likely prove difficult to resolve. The resident diplomatic
community consensus is that this stasis is likely to endure for some
months without a return to violent street confrontations. END
COMMENT.

STROMAYER