MADAGASCAR: CURRENT SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN

S E C R E T ANTANANARIVO 000364


DEPT FOR DS, D, P, M, S/CT, CA, AF, AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2029
TAGS: ASEC CASC MA MP PGOV PREL PTER
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: CURRENT SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN
ANTANANARIVO

REF: A. A. ANTANANARIVO 245

B. B. ANTANANARIVO 316

C. C. ANTANANARIVO 354

D. D. ANTANANARIVO 355

E. E. TD-314/032662-09

Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: This cable provides further information on
the security situation in Antananarivo and Madagascar in
support of post's request (refs C and D) to lift ordered
departure status, and in preparation for the Ambassador's
meetings next week in Washington. Since a limited resurgence
in violence between April 20 and 25, the city of Antananarivo
has been entirely free of violent street demonstrations with
police forces deployed throughout the city establishing a
visible routine police presence. Daily life in Antananarivo
has returned virtually to pre-crisis conditions with
businesses and citizens focusing on their normal daily
activities. In addition a number of potential flashpoints
have passed in the last month without incident or
confrontation, violent or otherwise, between the Legalists
and the High Transitional Authority (HAT) government. There
has been no credible threat or concrete action against the US
mission or its personnel since March. Looking forward, post
has no information to indicate that the calm conditions
prevailing for the past month will not endure for the
forseeable future. While the underlying political crisis has
not been resolved through negotiations, which are contining,
the security situation here clearly has reverted to its
pre-crisis status. Specifically, violent street
confrontations appear to have ended some weeks ago. And the
concerns we expressed about a possible backlash against the
US and its interests -- which were precisely what prompted
our request for OD on March 17 -- no longer obtain.

2.(C) CALM IN TANA: Over the past month, Antananarivo has
returned to its normal daily routines. City center businesses
have reopened their doors and in some cases have quickly
rebuilt destroyed stores after the late January civil unrest.
City municipal services work, albeit at a slower pace, with
city workers focused on trash removal services from community
neighborhoods and filling in potholes after three months of
inaction by city hall due to the political impasse. The
National Police continue to maintain a heavy police presence
on the streets of Antananarivo to reassure a weary public
whose main concern after the coup is the increase in petty
street crime and armed attacks on small businesses. The
public in Antananarivo quickly became educated and outraged
that a large number of these small business robberies are
being carried out by the CAPSAT military unit, with a few
media outlets daring to report vaguely about CAPSAT's
freelancing activities. The Regional Security Office
continues to maintain weekly contacts with key local district
police commanders who have avoided the political fallout of
position reassignments that have plagued the military and
Gendermerie. After the coup d'etat, the National Police
continue to focus on their core police duties and have not
participated in politically motivated arrests and have been
one of the few institutions to not be tainted by the coup. On
March 21, authorities lifted the nighttime curfew imposed on
Antananarivo and its surrounding suburbs and the provincial
capitals and countryside continue to remain calm. Gasoline
and food stocks continue to be well stocked and plentiful.
Food prices have stabilized although some commodities have
experienced price appreciation since the start of the
political crisis due to the destruction of Ravalomanana's
food monopoly TIKO. Local small food businesses continue to
be well stocked with no reports of wide scale shortages of
basic food items. There are no shortages or price increases
that are posing a problem for the large remaining expatriate
population and elites of the city. Utilities, the internet,
and the airport all have functioned normally since the coups.
The Tamatave port has seen several short-lived strikes that
occasionally delayed container movements. All schools,
including the American School, have remained open since the
coup.


3. (C) POTENTIAL FLASHPOINTS PASS AND PEACEFUL LEGALIST
RALLIES CONTINUE: The potential flashpoints of May 1 (Labor
Day),May 5 (the opening of parliament) and historically
important May 13, passed with no altercations between the
Legalists and security forces. Since the banning of public
assemblies on April 21 by the HAT in an effort to maintain
control of the city due to the street demonstrations during
the week of April 20 -25, the HAT has loosened its ban on
political rallies by allowing the Legalists to gather
peacefully at Ravalomanana's food distribution warehouse.
This facility is located on private property, a few
kilometers outside the city center. Normally, weekday crowds
range from 1,000 to 2,000 with weekend crowds increasing to
4,000 members. The rallies contain a professional program of
musical entertainment, religious ceremonies, and political
speeches by party leaders and lack any hostile talk of
marching to retake ministries or taking the fight to the
streets. The Legalists received a two day reprieve by the
authorities to hold rallies at Democracy Park on May 15 and
16 but have since been denied access to Democracy Park;
instead they have reconvened at the food distribution
warehouse. Since the coup d'etat, Legalists numbers at the
rallies have steadily declined due to a steady defection of
TIM leaders willing to break ranks and join or negotiate with
the HAT. Secondly, TIM's core base is made up of middle and
upper-middle class voters who maintain full-time jobs and can
only realistically attend rallies on the weekend. Finally,
the population at large recognizes the fact that security
forces are willing to resort to intimidation and violence in
an expedited manner to gain the upper hand against
demonstrators and maintain control. Security forces continue
to station a quick reaction force near the Legalists' venue
to contain any potential violence, prevent provocative acts,
and provide protection to area businesses. This approach has
been effective.


4. (C) FOREIGN MISSIONS AND UN CONDUCT BUSINESS AS USUAL:
During the height of the political crisis, other than the US
Mission, only the World Bank and German Mission went to a
departure status. Both have since returned their staff and
family members. The United Nations went to phase 2 around the
coup (heightened state of security awareness) but has since
dropped down to their lowest security level of phase 1. The
French Embassy and United Nations continue to advise their
community to avoid political demonstrations and practice
basic personal security awareness. Since the start of
political demonstrations in mid-December, there have been no
reports of any diplomatic or non governmental personnel being
targeted by political demonstrators.


5. (C) US MISSION AND IVANDRY NEIGHBORHOOD REMAIN SAFE: Since
the start of the political crisis, the US Mission residential
neighborhood, Ivandry, has had no reported residential
break-ins and the National Police continue to maintain a
normal police presence in the area with police officers
normally deployed at a nearby gas station 100 meters from the
neighborhood. In addition, a commercial building across the
street from the Ivandry neighborhood continues to house a
small detachment of soldiers assigned to protect the
building. In addition to 24 hour guard coverage at all US
Mission residences, the LGF mobile patrol and the European
Union mobile patrol continue to make daily rounds within the
Ivandry neighborhood. RSO continues to monitor and report to
Washington, DC, through the SIMAS database, the steady
increase in crime within the city of Antananarivo which is
rated critical for crime. The Embassy's National Police
Detachment and LGF continue to provide sufficient security
coverage around the Embassy perimeter which has been
unaffected by protests around the city center. Since the
start of the crisis, the US Embassy has not had any
demonstrations occur at the chancery. The Legalist gatherings
at the food distribution warehouse take place near a
commercial building which houses USAID. To date, gatherings
at this venue have been peaceful and business operations at
USAID have been unaffected by the rallies. Police protection
of the CMR has been reliable and professional throughout.
Our surveillance detection units have detected no
surveillance of USG facilities or personnel, including the
COM and his residence. Recent media attacks against the
Ambassador and the USG position calling for early elections
have not generated any threats to his or mission security.


6. (S/NF) CAPSAT RHETORIC AGAINST THE US MISSION: Since
CAPSAT's brief discussion in early May of ways to put
pressure on the US Embassy, Regional Affairs Office (RAO)
sources have picked up no additional talk by CAPSAT to target
the US Embassy; RAO's continuing monitoring of CAPSAT's
internal discussions gives post confidence that no such
planning is taking place. In this event, through indirect and
direct intermediaries, the US Mission and Ambassador quickly
advised TGV and his Foreign Minister on May 8 and 9 that any
action against the US Mission or personnel would be
ill-advised and have dire consequences for the HAT and
CAPSAT. Their responses were immediate that no such action
would occur. In addition, Post's knowledge of this
conversation by CAPSAT probably provided a quick reality
check to CAPSAT and the HAT that the US Mission was closing
following and aware of their activities and discussions.
Other than this conversation by CAPSAT, there have been no
credible threats against the US Mission or personnel.


7. (C) AIRPORT OPERATON: Since the start of the political
crisis, flight operations at Ivato International Airport have
continued uninterrupted. The Ivato area and the main road
leading to the airport from Ivandry have been relatively
free of any disturbances since the start of the turmoil.
International flights continue regularly. Due to a decline
in passenger traffic caused by the political crisis and world
economic crisis, Air France reduced their flights from five
per week to three. Air Madagascar has altered their flight
schedules due to reduced passenger traffic and financial
losses. However, Antananarivo continues to receive
international flights from Mauritius, South Africa, Thailand,
Reunion, Comoros, and France. With the high tourist season
just starting, Madagascar is preparing for the expected
return of some European tourists and hoping to see increased
passenger traffic increase. Most embassies have "normalized"
their travel advisories to encourage a resumption of tourist
arrivals.


8. (SBU) COMMENT: Looking forward, post has no information
to indicate that the calm conditions prevailing for the past
month will not endure for the forseeable future. While the
underlying political crisis has not been resolved through
negotiations which continue, the security situation for
Americans here has reverted to its pre-crisis level.
Specifically, violent street confrontations appear to have
ended some weeks ago. And the concerns we expressed about a
possible backlash against the US and its interests -- which
were precisely what prompted our request for OD on March 17
-- no longer obtain. End comment.


MARQUARDT