Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ANTANANARIVO354
2009-05-18 11:29:00
SECRET
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:  

EAC CONVENED TO REVIEW ORDERED DEPARTURE STATUS

Tags:  ASEC CASC MA MP PGOV PREL PTER 
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P 181129Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2434
S E C R E T ANTANANARIVO 000354 


DEPT FOR DS, D, P, M, S/CT, CA, AND INR
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF
DEPT FOR DS/ITA/AF
DEPT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2029
TAGS: ASEC CASC MA MP PGOV PREL PTER
SUBJECT: EAC CONVENED TO REVIEW ORDERED DEPARTURE STATUS
AND DETAINEE PHOTOGRAPHS

REF: A. A. 09 ANTANANARIVO 245

B. B. 09 ANTANANARIVO 316


Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.

S E C R E T ANTANANARIVO 000354


DEPT FOR DS, D, P, M, S/CT, CA, AND INR
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF
DEPT FOR DS/ITA/AF
DEPT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2029
TAGS: ASEC CASC MA MP PGOV PREL PTER
SUBJECT: EAC CONVENED TO REVIEW ORDERED DEPARTURE STATUS
AND DETAINEE PHOTOGRAPHS

REF: A. A. 09 ANTANANARIVO 245

B. B. 09 ANTANANARIVO 316


Classified By: AMBASSADOR NIELS MARQUARDT FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (SBU) Summary: An Emergency Action Committee (EAC) was
convened on May 18, 2009. The main topic was a review of
Post's ordered departure (OD) status. The committee
unanimously recommended that OD be lifted. The EAC also
reviewed the current security and political situation in
Antananarivo and the possible impact on the release of
detainee photographs on mission security (none is expected).


2. (C) The Ambassador opened the meeting by providing a
summary of political developments since the last EAC meeting.
Currently, the African Union led International Contact Group
- Madagascar is in Madagascar meeting with all political
parties to assist in developing a negotiated road map for
national reconciliation. Additionally, three other
international envoys are present working on national
reconciliation. The Ambassador stated that the Southern
African Development Community (SADC) is reconsidering their
hard line that Ravalomanana must be reinstated as president
by force if necessary and seems to realize that such a stance
is counterproductive. The political dialogue between the
various parties is continuing fitfully but appears unlikely
to move to further violent confrontations in the forseeable
future.


3. (C) The Regional Security Officer (RSO) provided an update
on the Legalist gatherings over the past two weeks. A number
of potential flash points passed without any confrontations
between protesters and security forces. A potential flash
point on historically important May 13th passed with no
altercations between the Legalists and security forces. The
Legalists expressed a desire to march to 13th of May park
located in the city center but RSO assessed that the
Legalists did not have the strength to march in mass to this
destination due to reduced crowd numbers at their main
rallying point and a desire not to provoke a direct

confrontation between security forces which positioned
themselves at the park. RSO stated that the Legalists
continue to hold daily political gatherings and recently
moved their rallies to Democracy park after receiving
approval from the city of Antananarivo. RSO noted that since
April 27th there have been no clashes between demonstrators
and security forces. RSO stated that the security forces
continue to deploy mixed units of National Police, Army, and
Gendarmerie units near Legalist gatherings to act as a
quick-reaction force to contain any potential violence. The
greatest threat to Post personnel is the continued increase
in crime with a few separate residential break-ins occurring
at non-USG expat residences. However, RSO stated that the US
Mission neighborhood in Ivandry has had no reported
residential break-ins since the start of the crisis and a
number of break-ins elsewhere were unsuccessful after the
attackers realized the residence had a professional guard
company protecting the residence with 24 hour guard coverage
and panic alarms.


4. (C) The Public Affairs Officer (PAO) reported that the
spike in anti-American media articles against the US
ambassador/government's stance towards the transition
government has subsided. PAO stated that the majority of
these articles were from pro-HAT media with an agenda and
incentive to support the current government. PAO mentioned
that at no time did these articles direct threats against
American citizens, foreign nationals, or the US Mission. The
RSO concurred in that assessment.


5. (C) The Defense Attache Officer (DAO) stated that the
military continues to play an inactive role in the
re-establishment of constitutional order or reigning in the
freelancing CAPSAT elements. The general lack of dialogue
continues between the mutinous CAPSAT soldiers and the senior
loyalist or neutral military leaders. DAO has received
reports of Ravalomanana sending money to supposedly loyalist
officers to act against CAPSAT and reestablish their control
over the military but DAO reported the officers pocketed the
money and used it for their own personal needs, without
taking any action. DAO reported on a military-on-military
exchange of fire near Ambatondrazaka on the grounds of former
president Ravalomanana's rice processing factory but DAO
lacked specific details on the incident from military
contacts. In any case the incident represented no security
challenge to U.S. interets. RSO stated early media reports
indicated the confrontation occurred between competing CAPSAT
elements with one group assigned to protect the location
while another unit from Antananarivo apparenlty arrived to
loot rice stocks. DAO stated that Minister of Defense Noel
Rakotonandrasana continues to promise that military salary
payments will be met and that senior military officers
sidelined by CAPSAT will continue to receive their salaries
and future retirement benefits. DAO concluded with his
assessment that further significant militayr violence seems
unlikely for the foreseeable future.


6. (S/NF) The Regional Affairs Officer (RAO) reported on the
recent withdrawal of two rocket-propelled grenade (RPG)
launchers from an area armory by CAPSAT. RAO stated it was
unclear the reason for this withdrawal but noted that CAPSAT
already had in their possession a number of RPGs at the start
of their mutiny in mid March. RAO stated that there has been
no additional discussions -- and no actions -- by CAPSAT to
target the US Mission and believes that these discussions
have since ceased. RAO stated that there is growing pressure
within the military to target the mutineers with a focus on
Major Charles Andrianasoavina and Major Lylison, the leaders
of the Commission Nationale Mixte d'Enquete, who have led the
charge in shaking down local businesses and carrying out
arbitrary arrests. There were conflicting reports that Major
Charles was in hiding or may have possibly fled the country
due to the reported bounty on his head. Additionally, RAO
reported the CAPSAT leadership was unhappy with transition
leader Rajoelina's decision not to run for president.
Reportedly, CAPSAT leaders expressed a desire to have
Rajoelina assassinated due to this decision. RAO and DAO
believed that if acts of violence were carried out by
competing military factions, the violent actions would not be
widespread and would be executed quickly and targeted toward
discrete individuals. If such events did occur, USG
personnel or buildings would not be likely targets.


7. (C) The EAC completed a discussion and review of Post's
reverse trip wires. The EAC judged that seven of Post's eight
reverse trip wires have been crossed, but that one reverse
trip wire has not been crossed. The single trip wire that has
not been crossed: a) De facto government has not yet
stabilized nor has an orderly non-violent process/roadmap
been established or implemented. The EAC then unanimously
voted to recommend to the Ambassador that he seek to lift the
current OD status at this time. The general view of the EAC
was that the unsettled political situation could drag out for
months but the EAC felt that the threat of wide-scale
political street violence, such as occurred in January-March,
had passed and that security forces were showing that they
could contain incidents of sporadic violence.


8. (SBU) Concerning the media attention on unreleased
detainee photographs, the EAC has seen no reports or
discussions of this topic in the local media. The consensus
was that these unreleased photographs did not have any impact
on mission or AMCIT security in Madagascar.


MARQUARDT