Comoran President Announces Referendum May 17

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000285

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/FO AND AF/E

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ECON CN
SUBJECT: Comoran President Announces Referendum May 17


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Comoran President Sambi announced the
constitutional referendum will be held May 17. The new draft
revision has not been made public yet, but is expected to
concentrate powers in the Union presidency, reduce island autonomy,
and allow Sambi to extend his current term in office. Opposition
leaders have publicly vowed to prevent the referendum from taking
place "by all means possible." END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) In a radio address April 15, Union of the Comoros
President Sambi announced that a referendum would be held May 17 to
revise the constitution; the campaign begins April 25. Having
previously postponed the referendum, the President spent the last
several weeks in negotiations with the three island presidents to
seek consensus on a way forward. After Sambi informed the dip corps
April 10 that they had reached consensus, it appears the talks ended
instead in disagreement.


3. (SBU) The GOC will have to issue a decree for the referendum
including the proposed changes to the constitution. The President
has confirmed that he will take into account recommendations from
the March 4-7 Inter-Comoran Dialogue. However, it is expected that
the revised constitution will include a provision for the President
to remain in power beyond his current mandate, which ends in 2010.
It is also expected to concentrate power in the central Union
government and to diminish island autonomy. In recent meetings,
Sambi has explained his intentions regarding his mandate are only
based on the need to "harmonize" mandates to reduce the number of
costly elections. As to the changes for Union power, he insists
these are necessary for the Comoros to develop. A "Congress" of
parliaments, once the National and three island assemblies are
elected, would be asked to decide on the exact date of the next
Union President election, based on the revised constitution, if it
passes.

Opposition Opposes Referendum
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


4. (SBU) "Opposition" island presidents Abdouwahabi (Grande Comore)
and Ali Said (Moheli) announced April 12 that talks with the Union
had "failed." In a meeting with the dip corps late April 15,
Abdouwahabi criticized Sambi's government for being inflexible in
negotiations. Perhaps in desperation, both Abdouwahabi and Ali Said
announced on April 12 their willingness to step down in 2010 (two
years early) in order to pressure Sambi to respect the end of his
mandate. (Note: Sambi answered them in his speech: because
Anjouan president Moussa Toybou refuses to step down in 2010, he
ignores the offer and will move forward with his referendum,
including provisions to extend his mandate. End Note.) Abdouwahabi
reiterated his argument that Sambi's effort to prolong his term in
office via a referendum that "retroactively" applies to his mandate
would be illegal.


5. (SBU) Separately, some 15 opposition political parties, including
that of former President Azali, issued a declaration denouncing
President Sambi's attempt to remain in office. They called the
referendum illegal and called on the three island presidents and the
Comoran people to actively prevent the referendum from taking place.
The statement included a scathing criticism of Sambi, noting
millions in foreign assistance (EU, Arab League, Kuwait Fund, and
others) while civil servant salaries remain unpaid and there are no
signs of development. They also attacked Sambi for his dealings
with the "Arab mafia" led by Comoro Gulf Holdings Bashar Kiwan. The
politicians noted Kiwan has reportedly been arrested and
investigated in Dubai for fraud related to a telecom license he
obtained in the Comoros. Unconfirmed reports suggest that
"billionaire Talal Alkhoury" invested USD 34 million in the deal,
but claims Kiwan defrauded him, embezzled the money for other uses,
and sold the license to another operator. The statement notes
Kiwan's "Federal Commerce Bank" (BFC) is "open" in Moroni, but still
does not have a license. They also highlight the "illegal" passage
of the economic citizenship law, under pressure from Kiwan, which
now appears to be allowing the GOC to sell passports to stateless
persons in Kuwait and the Emirates.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: Whatever the intentions or legality of the
referendum, President Sambi's determination to move forward with it
may come at a high cost to the Comoros' fragile stability. Longtime
international legal experts in the Comoros note that Anjouan would
never and will never accept the new constitutional arrangements the
minute one of their own is no longer in power. Diplomats agree
there is no "need" for Sambi to extend his mandate, though no one
has told him as much. It appears one strong reason to prolong the
mandate is pressure from Bashar Kiwan, who has enormous influence
with Sambi and is providing "benefits" to GOC officials. Kiwan's
interests, including the "economic citizenship" deal from which he
appears to be profiting, would be unlikely to survive in a
post-Sambi Comoros. Opposition promises of "extreme measures" and
"inspiration from Madagascar" deserve to be taken seriously given

ANTANANARI 00000285 002 OF 002


what is at stake. END COMMENT

MARQUARDT