"GOM" PRIORITIES MET WITH DIPLOMATIC SILENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000227

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL MA
SUBJECT: "GOM" PRIORITIES MET WITH DIPLOMATIC SILENCE

REF: ANTANANARIVO 204

Classified By: DCM ERIC STROMAYER FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: Madagascar's "High Transitional Authority"
(HAT) convened leaders of the diplomatic corps on March 31 to
announce its priorities for the coming months, and advance a
conciliatory posture towards the international community in
Antananarivo. Transition Minister of Finance Benja
Razafimahaleo listed five key areas of focus: food security,
internal security, good governance, stabilization of public
finances, and the creation of new institutions of government.
The audience, composed mostly of DCMs or equivalent, took
notes but remained silent; none present were prepared to
engage with the HAT. Despite growing opposition both on the
streets of Tana and in foreign capitals, Madagascar's new
leadership appears determined to persevere, and confident
that the international community will eventually fall in line
- against all current indications. END SUMMARY.

PUSHING AHEAD ON THE HAT AGENDA
--------------


2. (C) HAT Prime Minister Roindefo Monja and ten of his
cabinet members held today's meeting to present priorities
for the transition period; no mention was made of the
embattled regime's current difficulties, and the two speakers
did their best to present an image of stability and
determination. No doubt focused by the looming budget
crisis, Monja stated that Madagascar's problems were "between
Malagasy", but recognized that they can't survive in
isolation. After three months of conflict, he continued,
there is now freedom of speech and assembly (as indicated,
ironically, by the daily pro-Ravalomanana demonstrations in
downtown Antananarivo),and it is thus time to get on with
rebuilding the country. Minister of Finance Razafimahaleo
reiterated his confidence that "the international community
is with us", despite SADC's call this morning for the
unconditional reinstatement of former president Marc
Ravalomanana.


3. (C) Monja confirmed that the HAT intends to hold a
National Meeting ("Assises Nationale") on April 2-3, designed
to include members of civil society, political parties, and
business in order to promote national reconciliation and iron
out the details of the transition government's "Council for
Economic and Social Recovery" (CRES). The idea has few
supporters outside of the HAT, however, as most NGOs and
political parties that haven't been co-opted into the
government demand that such a meeting be run by an neutral
organization, and with a much broader agenda. The largest
grouping of such "independents" is the Collective of Citizens
and Civic Organizations (CCOC),who recently made public
their opposition to the HAT event, and began promoting a
competing "National Convention" to be held at a later date.
Supporters of former President Marc Ravalomanana's party,
TIM, have also indicated their intention to boycott.
(COMMENT: Monja appeared unconcerned, but a poorly-attended
National Meeting will only underscore the HAT's legitimacy
problem. END COMMENT)

FIVE PRIORITIES FOR THE TRANSITION
--------------


4. (C) Per HAT Minister of Finance Razafimahaleo, the five
key priorities for the transition are as follows:

- Food security: Due to months of crisis and unstable prices
on staple foods, the HAT will fight famine, and help the
urban poor who are having difficulty feeding themselves.
(NOTE: This priority matches the HAT's recent plan to
distribute subsidized rice from government stocks, although
current estimates indicate that this will only last a few
weeks at best. END NOTE)

- Internal security: The HAT will work to reestablish the
rule of law, while supporting human rights and free
expression.

- Good governance: This will begin with national
reconciliation, and include the re-establishment of ethical
politics and economic policies designed to promote
liberalism and real competition.

- Stabilization of public finances: According to
Razafimahaleo, "the coffers are empty", so the GOM will
pursue austerity and respect for budgetary procedures. The

ANTANANARI 00000227 002 OF 002


state will also recover all taxes owed by Tiko.

- The creation of new institutions of state: To prepare for
Madagascar's "Fourth Republic", the HAT will revise the
constitution and redesign the government. They will then
hold a referendum on the constitution, followed by
legislative and presidential elections. No timeframe was
given.

"MAYBE IT'S TOO EARLY"
--------------


5. (C) COMMENT: Razafimahaleo and Monja kept their speeches
short, and then turned the microphone to the assembled
diplomats; an awkward minute passed before Monja was forced
to close the meeting with a brief recognition that perhaps it
was too early to expect feedback or commentary. Today's
gathering was the HAT's first substantive encounter with the
diplomatic community, and they were no doubt disappointed at
the chilly response: boycotted by Ambassadors, the meeting
was a stark illustration of the HAT's continued isolation.


6. (C) HAT President Andry Rajoelina today indicated that he
is considering pulling out of SADC altogether ("Madagascar's
membership to this organization is not really necessary"),
and although Monja stated his readiness to seek national
reconciliation, the HAT's plans for a National Meeting this
week will only further alienate the new opposition. A quick
review of the HAT's 44 members, most of whom were named
today, indicates that only two were affiliated with the
former government, despite promises of balanced
representation. The HAT appears determined to push forward
on its agenda (the National Meeting, and the transition
government as they have designed it),unwilling to retreat on
tactical errors (such as suspending parliament),and unlikely
to deliver on its promises until it can engage the growing
opposition. In the meantime, they will continue to be
frustrated by the international community's failure to
provide them with support. END COMMENT.
MARQUARDT